TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13098836
Played Sep 9Finished
Frantisek Pusch
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
3111214611––––
Richard Wagner
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:19 and never touched — 55.7% is still 55.7%
Graded at full timeRichard Wagner to win
55.7%
55.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFrantisek Pusch above · Richard Wagner below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 6-11
Point 57 set 3, 6-11 — our read held Richard Wagner at 55.7%
57 points played in total.
H2H Frantisek Pusch 4–7 Richard Wagner Frantisek Pusch has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 4h before this match
Pusch beat Wagner 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:19What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Wagner
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-7 in 11
Wagner
Correct
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pusch 1742 vs Wagner 1691
Pusch
Wrong
both rated, 51 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pusch 60% vs Wagner 40%
Pusch
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pusch 80% vs Wagner 60%
Pusch
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Pusch +1 · Wagner +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Pusch) · live re-read · sealed at 44% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wagner form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPusch 2.00 / Wagner 1.73
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Pusch)+7.7pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13098836
Pusch2.00
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog53% won 31 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back36% 13 of 36
Down 0–2, comes back17% 4 of 23
Wagner1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 66 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it97% 32 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it78% 50 of 64
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomePusch3wins
AwayWagner7wins
Wagner leads 7–3.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePusch100%3 of 3
AwayWagner100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pusch3Wagner7n = 10Wagner took 7 of 10
S2Pusch7Wagner3n = 10Pusch took 7 of 10
S3Pusch3Wagner7n = 10Wagner took 7 of 10
S4Pusch0Wagner4n = 4Wagner took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricPuschWagnerP − WBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match28.233.6−5.4per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPuschWagnerBasisWin rate · lifetime71 / 130 vs 99 / 18954.6%52.4%71 / 130 vs 99 / 189Avg sets wonper match2.02.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.236.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PuschPusch 2.00/Wagner 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Pusch · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Wagner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 11:00F. Pusch—31260R. Wagner—1114113
WSep 9 · 07:00F. Pusch—1111113R. Wagner—5890
WAug 18 · 16:30F. Pusch—1111113R. Wagner—5970
LAug 18 · 13:30F. Pusch—911981R. Wagner—11911113
LAug 18 · 11:30F. Pusch—711991R. Wagner—11911113
WAug 17 · 10:00F. Pusch—1512123R. Wagner—1310100
LAug 17 · 09:30F. Pusch—811381R. Wagner—11311113
LAug 17 · 06:30F. Pusch—7650R. Wagner—1111113
LJul 11 · 17:30F. Pusch—2170R. Wagner—1111113
LJul 11 · 15:30F. Pusch—311921R. Wagner—11511113
F. Pusch10
WSep 9 · 12:30F. Pusch1.6711111115123V. Vejvoda2.10138417102WSep 9 · 10:00P. Saleny2.001111371F. Pusch1.7313911113LSep 9 · 09:28P. Saleny1.7351120113F. Pusch2.001181891WSep 9 · 08:00V. Vejvoda1.9110360F. Pusch1.801211113WSep 9 · 07:00R. Wagner1.735890F. Pusch2.001111113LSep 9 · 06:30F. Pusch1.73591181P. Saleny2.0011114113WSep 8 · 13:30F. Pusch1.801111113J. Ruzicka1.804870WSep 8 · 12:00J. Ruzicka1.73117811122F. Pusch2.00611116143WSep 8 · 11:00R. Urbaniec2.0041191272F. Pusch1.731161110113WSep 8 · 10:30F. Pusch1.5011811113M. Sychra2.50811531
R. Wagner10
LSep 9 · 12:00P. Saleny2.0012119113R. Wagner1.731051171WSep 9 · 10:30R. Wagner1.618111210143V. Vejvoda2.201161012122LSep 9 · 09:00R. Wagner1.5381070V. Vejvoda2.381112113LSep 9 · 08:30R. Wagner1.611110551P. Saleny2.2061211113LSep 9 · 07:00R. Wagner1.735890F. Pusch2.001111113WSep 9 · 06:00V. Vejvoda2.20791481R. Wagner1.61111112113WSep 5 · 21:28R. Wagner1.611111113R. Pacha2.206780WSep 5 · 20:00R. Wagner1.5051116123K. Schopf2.5011714101WSep 5 · 19:30D. Hofman2.101011711102R. Wagner1.67126119123WSep 5 · 18:00R. Wagner1.61111111113R. Pacha2.20613691
Upcoming Matches
Event Chatroom
This room is closed. Messages clear 24 hours after they are sent.