TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13115137
Played Sep 12Finished
Sebastian Kasnik
Home
2.63
At publish
Lost last 6Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 6
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1113811411––––
Petr Saleny
Away
1.44
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:12 and never touched — 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timePetr Saleny to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSebastian Kasnik above · Petr Saleny below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 4-11
Point 58 set 3, 4-11 — our read held Petr Saleny at 64.1%
58 points played in total.
H2H Sebastian Kasnik 5–15 Petr Saleny Sebastian Kasnik has won 5 of their 20 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 4h before this match
Saleny beat Kasnik 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:12What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Saleny
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-15 in 20
Saleny
Correct
gap of 10 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kasnik 1543 vs Saleny 1697
Saleny
Correct
both rated, 154 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kasnik 0% vs Saleny 80%
Saleny
Correct
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kasnik 40% vs Saleny 70%
Saleny
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kasnik -5 · Saleny +4
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Saleny) · live re-read · sealed at 64% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Saleny form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (69%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKasnik 2.63 / Saleny 1.44
Signal prob.33% / 67%
Edge (Saleny)+2.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13115137
Kasnik2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 6
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog40% won 126 of 315
Down 0–1, comes back20% 33 of 166
Down 0–2, comes back9% 9 of 96
Saleny1.44
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As favourite61% won 59 of 97
Up 2–0, closes it94% 32 of 34
Up 1–0, closes it83% 44 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKasnik2wins
AwaySaleny8wins
4 of 10 to a deciderSaleny leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKasnik50%2 of 4
AwaySaleny100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kasnik4Saleny6n = 10Saleny took 6 of 10
S2Kasnik4Saleny6n = 10Saleny took 6 of 10
S3Kasnik4Saleny6n = 10Saleny took 6 of 10
S4Kasnik1Saleny5n = 6Saleny took 5 of 6
S5Kasnik1Saleny3n = 4Saleny took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKasnikSalenyK − SBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.041.9−6.9per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKasnikSalenyBasisWin rate · lifetime476 / 1005 vs 215 / 41547.4%51.8%476 / 1005 vs 215 / 415Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SalenyKasnik 2.63/Saleny 1.44
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
66.9%
Saleny · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Saleny won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 08:59S. Kasnik24511711P. Saleny3911611113
LSep 12 · 08:00S. Kasnik26581121P. Saleny4111118113
LSep 4 · 12:30S. Kasnik4411711872P. Saleny47811611113
LSep 4 · 08:00S. Kasnik41111051322P. Saleny505121111113
LAug 25 · 12:30S. Kasnik4571111972P. Saleny44115611113
WAug 25 · 08:00S. Kasnik7011131217173P. Saleny689111419152
LJul 1 · 12:30S. Kasnik186930P. Saleny331111113
LJul 1 · 06:30S. Kasnik248970P. Saleny331111113
WMay 14 · 16:00S. Kasnik361213113P. Saleny28101170
LMay 11 · 14:30S. Kasnik2271230P. Saleny361114113
S. Kasnik10
LSep 12 · 13:01M. Sychra1.8571111123S. Kasnik1.851155101LSep 12 · 11:00S. Kasnik1.738911101M. Sychra2.0011119123LSep 12 · 10:00M. Regner2.631111113S. Kasnik1.446690LSep 12 · 08:59P. Saleny1.5011611113S. Kasnik2.50511711LSep 12 · 08:00P. Saleny1.5011118113S. Kasnik2.50581121LSep 12 · 07:00M. Klement1.61119114133S. Kasnik2.20911711112LSep 12 · 06:30S. Kasnik1.67911451M. Sychra2.1011811113WSep 11 · 03:30S. Kasnik1.5211711113M. Regner2.35811881WSep 11 · 02:30S. Kasnik2.201161311113M. Klement1.6181115982WSep 11 · 01:30M. Regner2.509390S. Kasnik1.501111113
P. Saleny10
WSep 12 · 13:31P. Saleny1.501111113M. Regner2.506110WSep 12 · 11:30P. Saleny1.6111119123M. Regner2.205611101WSep 12 · 10:30M. Sychra2.504511101P. Saleny1.5011117123WSep 12 · 08:59P. Saleny1.5011611113S. Kasnik2.50511711WSep 12 · 08:00P. Saleny1.5011118113S. Kasnik2.50581121LSep 12 · 07:30M. Sychra2.7551111113P. Saleny1.40119881WSep 12 · 06:00P. Saleny2.10111158113M. Klement1.6745111152WSep 9 · 13:00V. Vejvoda1.7391017101P. Saleny2.00111215123WSep 9 · 12:00P. Saleny2.0012119113R. Wagner1.731051171LSep 9 · 11:30V. Vejvoda1.61131111113P. Saleny2.201181391
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