TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13114732
Played Sep 12Finished
Sebastian Kasnik
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 5
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
8119111191012––
Martin Sychra
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:04 and never touched — 58.6% is still 58.6%
Graded at full timeSebastian Kasnik to win
58.6%
58.6%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingSebastian Kasnik above · Martin Sychra below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 10-12
Point 81 set 4, 10-12 — our read held Sebastian Kasnik at 58.6%
81 points played in total.
H2H Sebastian Kasnik 17–15 Martin Sychra Martin Sychra has won 15 of their 32 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Sychra beat Kasnik 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:04What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kasnik
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
17-15 in 32
Kasnik
Wrong
gap of 2 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kasnik 1585 vs Sychra 1647
Sychra
Correct
both rated, 62 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kasnik 0% vs Sychra 60%
Sychra
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kasnik 50% vs Sychra 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Kasnik -5 · Sychra -1
Kasnik
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Kasnik) · live re-read · sealed at 59% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kasnik form (0%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKasnik 1.73 / Sychra 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Kasnik)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13114732
Kasnik1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite58% won 116 of 201
Up 2–0, closes it90% 65 of 72
Up 1–0, closes it72% 93 of 130
Sychra2.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog48% won 181 of 379
Down 0–1, comes back26% 51 of 198
Down 0–2, comes back9% 10 of 113
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKasnik7wins
AwaySychra3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKasnik leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKasnik85.7%6 of 7
AwaySychra66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kasnik7Sychra3n = 10Kasnik took 7 of 10
S2Kasnik7Sychra3n = 10Kasnik took 7 of 10
S3Kasnik5Sychra5n = 10split evenly
S4Kasnik5Sychra2n = 7Kasnik took 5 of 7
S5Kasnik2Sychra2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKasnikSychraK − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match40.536.5+4.0per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKasnikSychraBasisWin rate · lifetime476 / 1004 vs 800 / 151847.4%52.7%476 / 1004 vs 800 / 1518Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KasnikKasnik 1.73/Sychra 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.1%
Kasnik · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Sychra won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 12 · 06:30S. Kasnik—911451M. Sychra—11811113
WSep 11 · 24:00S. Kasnik—81111113M. Sychra—116991
WSep 8 · 07:00S. Kasnik—112611113M. Sychra—91111882
WSep 1 · 22:30S. Kasnik—1111113M. Sychra—3960
LAug 26 · 12:30S. Kasnik—119111682M. Sychra—4111314113
WAug 26 · 09:29S. Kasnik—1111113M. Sychra—8880
WAug 26 · 08:30S. Kasnik—1111119113M. Sychra—21391172
WAug 21 · 24:30S. Kasnik—12116113M. Sychra—1041161
WAug 19 · 21:58S. Kasnik—1111113M. Sychra—9980
LAug 18 · 16:00S. Kasnik—91191172M. Sychra—118117113
S. Kasnik10
LSep 12 · 10:00M. Regner2.631111113S. Kasnik1.446690LSep 12 · 08:59P. Saleny1.5011611113S. Kasnik2.50511711LSep 12 · 08:00P. Saleny1.5011118113S. Kasnik2.50581121LSep 12 · 07:00M. Klement1.61119114133S. Kasnik2.20911711112LSep 12 · 06:30S. Kasnik1.67911451M. Sychra2.1011811113WSep 11 · 03:30S. Kasnik1.5211711113M. Regner2.35811881WSep 11 · 02:30S. Kasnik2.201161311113M. Klement1.6181115982WSep 11 · 01:30M. Regner2.509390S. Kasnik1.501111113WSep 11 · 24:00S. Kasnik1.7381111113M. Sychra2.00116991WSep 10 · 23:00J. Louda1.67111110992S. Kasnik2.10841211113
M. Sychra10
LSep 12 · 10:30M. Sychra2.504511101P. Saleny1.5011117123WSep 12 · 09:30M. Sychra1.6781111133M. Klement2.101177111LSep 12 · 08:30M. Klement2.38118116113M. Sychra1.5391131162WSep 12 · 07:30M. Sychra2.7551111113P. Saleny1.40119881WSep 12 · 06:30S. Kasnik1.67911451M. Sychra2.1011811113WSep 11 · 02:59J. Louda1.50911591M. Sychra2.5011911113LSep 11 · 02:00M. Sychra2.38561251J. Louda1.53111110113WSep 11 · 01:00M. Sychra1.5711119113M. Klement2.25761181LSep 11 · 24:00S. Kasnik1.7381111113M. Sychra2.00116991LSep 10 · 22:30M. Regner1.83111181113M. Sychra1.8399111132
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