TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13115106
Played Sep 13Finished
Michal Regner
Home
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
811911511––––
Radek Rose
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:06 and never touched — 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeMichal Regner to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Regner above · Radek Rose below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 55 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Michal Regner at 62.0%
55 points played in total.
H2H Michal Regner 4–1 Radek Rose Radek Rose has won 1 of their 5 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:06What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Regner
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-1 in 5
Regner
Wrong
gap of 3 in 5, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Regner 1703 vs Rose 1688
Regner
Wrong
both rated, 14 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Regner 40% vs Rose 60%
Rose
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Regner 50% vs Rose 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Regner -1 · Rose +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Regner) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Rose form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRegner 1.61 / Rose 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Regner)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13115106
Regner1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite51% won 110 of 215
Up 2–0, closes it93% 57 of 61
Up 1–0, closes it71% 83 of 117
Rose2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog26% won 13 of 50
Down 0–1, comes back3% 1 of 31
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 5 meetings
HomeRegner4wins
AwayRose1wins
Regner leads 4–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRegner80%4 of 5
AwayRosen = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 5 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Regner5Rose0n = 5Regner took 5 of 5
S2Regner3Rose2n = 5Regner took 3 of 5
S3Regner4Rose1n = 5Regner took 4 of 5
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 5 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 5 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home360%
3–1Four sets, home120%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away120%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 5 meetings
MetricRegnerRoseRegner − RoseBasisWins41+3in 5 meetingsFirst set50+5of 5Avg pointsper match36.227.8+8.4per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRegnerRoseBasisWin rate · lifetime509 / 1057 vs 155 / 33348.2%46.6%509 / 1057 vs 155 / 333Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RegnerRegner 1.61/Rose 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Regner · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Rose won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record5
WOct 27 · 17:30M. Regner331111113R. Rose208840
WOct 22 · 20:30M. Regner4111811113R. Rose35811971
WMay 20 · 19:30M. Regner391117113R. Rose2871560
LMar 22 · 08:30M. Regner351171071R. Rose3841112113
WMar 11 · 20:00M. Regner331111113R. Rose184770
M. Regner10
LSep 12 · 23:00M. Regner2.38186571S. Kasnik1.53161111113WSep 12 · 22:00J. Louda1.736118111M. Regner2.0011711133LSep 12 · 13:31P. Saleny1.501111113M. Regner2.506110WSep 12 · 12:00M. Regner1.8311119113M. Sychra1.83881141LSep 12 · 11:30P. Saleny1.6111119123M. Regner2.205611101WSep 12 · 10:00M. Regner2.631111113S. Kasnik1.446690LSep 11 · 03:30S. Kasnik1.5211711113M. Regner2.35811881LSep 11 · 01:30M. Regner2.509390S. Kasnik1.501111113WSep 11 · 24:30J. Louda1.73311761M. Regner2.0011511113WSep 10 · 23:30M. Klement1.80116761M. Regner1.9191111113
R. Rose10
WSep 12 · 23:30J. Louda2.006650R. Rose1.731111113LSep 12 · 22:30R. Rose1.6711981272R. Wagner2.106111110113WSep 9 · 20:58R. Rose2.63111157113M. Sychra1.4484111152WSep 9 · 20:00R. Rose1.801111113M. Vondrak1.913180LSep 9 · 19:30M. Sychra1.44111116113R. Rose2.639131491LSep 9 · 18:00R. Rose1.678101191J. Louda2.1011127113WSep 6 · 17:29R. Rose1.73111194113M. Pikous2.0049111152WSep 6 · 16:00R. Rose1.331111113K. Schopf3.258620LSep 6 · 15:30M. Pikous2.10111011113R. Rose1.67812841WSep 6 · 14:00R. Rose1.571311113J. Tazler2.2511870
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