TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13123145
Played Sep 13Finished
Michal Regner
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
1012211811––––
Jiri Louda
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 02:52 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeMichal Regner to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Regner above · Jiri Louda below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 2-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Point 54 set 3, 8-11 — our read held Michal Regner at 54.9%
54 points played in total.
H2H Michal Regner 71–62 Jiri Louda Jiri Louda has won 62 of their 133 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 5h before this match
Regner beat Louda 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 02:52What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Louda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
71-62 in 133
Regner
Wrong
gap of 9 in 133, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Regner 1699 vs Louda 1658
Regner
Wrong
both rated, 41 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Regner 40% vs Louda 20%
Regner
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Regner 40% vs Louda 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Regner +1 · Louda +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Louda) · live re-read · sealed at 45% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Louda form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRegner 1.83 / Louda 1.83
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Louda)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13123145
Regner1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Louda1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRegner6wins
AwayLouda4wins
2 of 10 to a deciderRegner leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRegner85.7%6 of 7
AwayLouda100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Regner7Louda3n = 10Regner took 7 of 10
S2Regner5Louda5n = 10split evenly
S3Regner5Louda5n = 10split evenly
S4Regner4Louda4n = 8split evenly
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRegnerLoudaR − LBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match38.237.6+0.6per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRegnerLoudaBasisWin rate · lifetime510 / 1060 vs 609 / 119448.1%51%510 / 1060 vs 609 / 1194Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LoudaRegner 1.83/Louda 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Louda · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Louda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 22:00M. Regner4211711133J. Louda366118111
WSep 11 · 24:30M. Regner3811511113J. Louda27311761
LAug 15 · 22:30M. Regner31951161J. Louda3711114113
LAug 6 · 24:30M. Regner2641570J. Louda391117113
WAug 2 · 23:00M. Regner331111113J. Louda258890
LAug 2 · 11:00M. Regner32511971J. Louda4211911113
LAug 1 · 07:30M. Regner4211116862J. Louda46671111113
WJul 30 · 22:00M. Regner48111115113J. Louda41871791
WJul 28 · 03:28M. Regner481211311113J. Louda51109111382
WJul 28 · 24:30M. Regner4211911113J. Louda32411981
M. Regner10
WSep 13 · 02:00R. Wagner1.404890M. Regner2.751111113LSep 13 · 24:30M. Regner1.618950R. Rose2.201111113LSep 12 · 23:00M. Regner2.38186571S. Kasnik1.53161111113WSep 12 · 22:00J. Louda1.736118111M. Regner2.0011711133LSep 12 · 13:31P. Saleny1.501111113M. Regner2.506110WSep 12 · 12:00M. Regner1.8311119113M. Sychra1.83881141LSep 12 · 11:30P. Saleny1.6111119123M. Regner2.205611101WSep 12 · 10:00M. Regner2.631111113S. Kasnik1.446690LSep 11 · 03:30S. Kasnik1.5211711113M. Regner2.35811881LSep 11 · 01:30M. Regner2.509390S. Kasnik1.501111113
J. Louda10
WSep 13 · 02:30S. Kasnik2.105650J. Louda1.671111113LSep 13 · 01:00R. Wagner1.8311811113J. Louda1.83911441LSep 12 · 23:30J. Louda2.006650R. Rose1.731111113LSep 12 · 22:00J. Louda1.736118111M. Regner2.0011711133LSep 11 · 02:59J. Louda1.50911591M. Sychra2.5011911113WSep 11 · 02:00M. Sychra2.38561251J. Louda1.53111110113LSep 11 · 24:30J. Louda1.73311761M. Regner2.0011511113LSep 10 · 23:00J. Louda1.67111110992S. Kasnik2.10841211113WSep 10 · 22:00M. Klement2.1081111982J. Louda1.67118811113WSep 9 · 21:28J. Louda1.44131112113M. Vondrak2.631591051
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