TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13115156
Played Sep 13Finished
Sebastian Kasnik
Home
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
511611511––––
Jiri Louda
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:23 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeJiri Louda to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSebastian Kasnik above · Jiri Louda below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 49 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Jiri Louda at 56.2%
49 points played in total.
H2H Sebastian Kasnik 26–45 Jiri Louda Sebastian Kasnik has won 26 of their 71 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:23What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Louda
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
26-45 in 71
Louda
Correct
gap of 19 in 71, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kasnik 1518 vs Louda 1632
Louda
Correct
both rated, 114 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kasnik 20% vs Louda 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kasnik 10% vs Louda 40%
Louda
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kasnik -2 · Louda -4
Louda
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Louda)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Louda form (20%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKasnik 2.10 / Louda 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Louda)+0.4pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13115156
Kasnik2.10
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog40% won 117 of 294
Down 0–1, comes back21% 32 of 156
Down 0–2, comes back10% 9 of 88
Louda1.67
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 188 of 327
Up 2–0, closes it87% 83 of 96
Up 1–0, closes it73% 136 of 187
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKasnik4wins
AwayLouda6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLouda leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKasnik66.7%2 of 3
AwayLouda71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kasnik3Louda7n = 10Louda took 7 of 10
S2Kasnik5Louda5n = 10split evenly
S3Kasnik4Louda6n = 10Louda took 6 of 10
S4Kasnik4Louda2n = 6Kasnik took 4 of 6
S5Kasnik1Louda2n = 3Louda took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricKasnikLoudaK − LBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match33.138.0−4.9per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKasnikLoudaBasisWin rate · lifetime477 / 1010 vs 607 / 119247.2%50.9%477 / 1010 vs 607 / 1192Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
LoudaKasnik 2.10/Louda 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Louda · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Louda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 06:00S. Kasnik41115311113J. Louda4381111762
WSep 1 · 14:00S. Kasnik3631111113J. Louda30115681
LAug 28 · 03:28S. Kasnik3841111752J. Louda46114911113
WAug 27 · 22:00S. Kasnik331111113J. Louda218580
LAug 21 · 03:30S. Kasnik26101150J. Louda361213113
WAug 20 · 23:00S. Kasnik4471111153J. Louda371176131
LAug 16 · 22:00S. Kasnik48141161342J. Louda5812131111113
LJun 21 · 09:00S. Kasnik2349100J. Louda341111123
LJun 21 · 07:00S. Kasnik26811341J. Louda4211911113
LJun 20 · 21:28S. Kasnik167630J. Louda331111113
S. Kasnik10
LSep 13 · 01:30R. Rose1.501111113S. Kasnik2.504540LSep 13 · 24:00S. Kasnik2.20114981R. Wagner1.6151111113WSep 12 · 23:00M. Regner2.38186571S. Kasnik1.53161111113LSep 12 · 13:01M. Sychra1.8571111123S. Kasnik1.851155101LSep 12 · 12:30S. Kasnik2.6311840P. Saleny1.441311113LSep 12 · 11:00S. Kasnik1.738911101M. Sychra2.0011119123LSep 12 · 10:00M. Regner2.631111113S. Kasnik1.446690LSep 12 · 08:59P. Saleny1.5011611113S. Kasnik2.50511711LSep 12 · 08:00P. Saleny1.5011118113S. Kasnik2.50581121LSep 12 · 07:00M. Klement1.61119114133S. Kasnik2.20911711112
J. Louda10
LSep 14 · 03:30J. Louda2.5571070J. Ruzicka1.431112113LSep 14 · 02:00O. Svacha1.36111163113J. Louda3.0065111182WSep 14 · 24:30J. Louda2.10111115123M. Wagner1.67113911102WSep 13 · 23:00J. Louda2.6311711113J. Ruzicka1.44711991WSep 13 · 22:00R. Urbaniec1.5389111182J. Louda2.38111184113WSep 13 · 03:00M. Regner1.8310280J. Louda1.831211113LSep 13 · 01:00R. Wagner1.8311811113J. Louda1.83911441LSep 12 · 23:30J. Louda2.006650R. Rose1.731111113LSep 12 · 22:00J. Louda1.736118111M. Regner2.0011711133LSep 11 · 02:59J. Louda1.50911591M. Sychra2.5011911113
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