TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13115300
Played Sep 13Finished
Sebastian Kasnik
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
2–8Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
115411911811––
Richard Wagner
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:53 and never touched — 58.1% is still 58.1%
Graded at full timeRichard Wagner to win
58.1%
58.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSebastian Kasnik above · Richard Wagner below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 70 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Richard Wagner at 58.1%
70 points played in total.
H2H Sebastian Kasnik 5–8 Richard Wagner Sebastian Kasnik has won 5 of their 13 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:53What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Wagner
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-8 in 13
Wagner
Correct
gap of 3 in 13, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kasnik 1533 vs Wagner 1672
Wagner
Correct
both rated, 139 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kasnik 20% vs Wagner 60%
Wagner
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kasnik 20% vs Wagner 50%
Wagner
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kasnik +1 · Wagner +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Wagner) · live re-read · sealed at 58% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kasnik form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKasnik 2.20 / Wagner 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Wagner)+1.2pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13115300
Kasnik2.20
20%won 2 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog40% won 126 of 315
Down 0–1, comes back20% 33 of 166
Down 0–2, comes back9% 9 of 96
Wagner1.61
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite55% won 69 of 126
Up 2–0, closes it97% 34 of 35
Up 1–0, closes it78% 52 of 67
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKasnik3wins
AwayWagner7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderWagner leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKasnik40%2 of 5
AwayWagner80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kasnik5Wagner5n = 10split evenly
S2Kasnik3Wagner7n = 10Wagner took 7 of 10
S3Kasnik5Wagner5n = 10split evenly
S4Kasnik2Wagner7n = 9Wagner took 7 of 9
S5Kasnik2Wagner2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricKasnikWagnerK − WBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.444.1−3.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKasnikWagnerBasisWin rate · lifetime477 / 1008 vs 100 / 19147.3%52.4%477 / 1008 vs 100 / 191Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WagnerKasnik 2.20/Wagner 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.9%
Wagner · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Wagner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 10:30S. Kasnik551191112123R. Wagner491311510102
LSep 4 · 08:58S. Kasnik35117981R. Wagner4181111113
LSep 4 · 07:30S. Kasnik31811751R. Wagner4011711113
WAug 28 · 02:30S. Kasnik561114119113R. Wagner4541691152
LAug 25 · 11:30S. Kasnik36791191R. Wagner4211119113
LAug 25 · 09:30S. Kasnik5011915962R. Wagner559111311113
WAug 25 · 07:30S. Kasnik4312146113R. Wagner4210121191
LAug 18 · 16:58S. Kasnik34981161R. Wagner3911116113
LAug 18 · 14:00S. Kasnik197930R. Wagner331111113
LAug 10 · 13:00S. Kasnik4515116942R. Wagner551391111113
S. Kasnik10
WSep 12 · 23:00M. Regner2.38186571S. Kasnik1.53161111113LSep 12 · 13:01M. Sychra1.8571111123S. Kasnik1.851155101LSep 12 · 12:30S. Kasnik2.6311840P. Saleny1.441311113LSep 12 · 11:00S. Kasnik1.738911101M. Sychra2.0011119123LSep 12 · 10:00M. Regner2.631111113S. Kasnik1.446690LSep 12 · 08:59P. Saleny1.5011611113S. Kasnik2.50511711LSep 12 · 08:00P. Saleny1.5011118113S. Kasnik2.50581121LSep 12 · 07:00M. Klement1.61119114133S. Kasnik2.20911711112LSep 12 · 06:30S. Kasnik1.67911451M. Sychra2.1011811113WSep 11 · 03:30S. Kasnik1.5211711113M. Regner2.35811881
R. Wagner10
WSep 12 · 22:30R. Rose1.6711981272R. Wagner2.106111110113LSep 9 · 13:30R. Wagner1.54811781F. Pusch2.1811611113LSep 9 · 12:00P. Saleny2.0012119113R. Wagner1.731051171WSep 9 · 11:00F. Pusch2.0031260R. Wagner1.731114113WSep 9 · 10:30R. Wagner1.618111210143V. Vejvoda2.201161012122LSep 9 · 09:00R. Wagner1.5381070V. Vejvoda2.381112113LSep 9 · 08:30R. Wagner1.611110551P. Saleny2.2061211113LSep 9 · 07:00R. Wagner1.735890F. Pusch2.001111113WSep 9 · 06:00V. Vejvoda2.20791481R. Wagner1.61111112113WSep 5 · 21:28R. Wagner1.611111113R. Pacha2.206780
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