TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13104226
Played Sep 9Finished
Richard Wagner
Home
1.54
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
811116711811––
Frantisek Pusch
Away
2.18
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:09 and never touched — 54.9% is still 54.9%
Graded at full timeRichard Wagner to win
54.9%
54.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRichard Wagner above · Frantisek Pusch below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 73 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Richard Wagner at 54.9%
73 points played in total.
H2H Richard Wagner 7–4 Frantisek Pusch Frantisek Pusch has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
They have already met 2 times today · last one 3h before this match
Wagner beat Pusch 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickContradict
Sealed 13:09What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.54 (59%)
Wagner
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-4 in 11
Wagner
Wrong
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wagner 1691 vs Pusch 1753
Pusch
Correct
both rated, 62 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wagner 40% vs Pusch 60%
Pusch
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wagner 60% vs Pusch 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wagner -1 · Pusch +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Contradict.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Wagner)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pusch form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (46%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWagner 1.54 / Pusch 2.18
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Pusch)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13104226
Wagner1.54
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 66 of 118
Up 2–0, closes it97% 32 of 33
Up 1–0, closes it78% 50 of 64
Pusch2.18
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog53% won 31 of 59
Down 0–1, comes back36% 13 of 36
Down 0–2, comes back17% 4 of 23
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeWagner7wins
AwayPusch3wins
Wagner leads 7–3.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWagner100%7 of 7
AwayPusch100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wagner7Pusch3n = 10Wagner took 7 of 10
S2Wagner3Pusch7n = 10Pusch took 7 of 10
S3Wagner7Pusch3n = 10Wagner took 7 of 10
S4Wagner4Pusch0n = 4Wagner took 4 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricWagnerPuschW − PBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match33.628.2+5.4per matchSweeps3303–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWagnerPuschBasisWin rate · lifetime99 / 189 vs 72 / 13152.4%55%99 / 189 vs 72 / 131Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.837.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PuschWagner 1.54/Pusch 2.18
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.6%
Wagner · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Pusch won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 11:00R. Wagner—1114113F. Pusch—31260
LSep 9 · 07:00R. Wagner—5890F. Pusch—1111113
LAug 18 · 16:30R. Wagner—5970F. Pusch—1111113
WAug 18 · 13:30R. Wagner—11911113F. Pusch—911981
WAug 18 · 11:30R. Wagner—11911113F. Pusch—711991
LAug 17 · 10:00R. Wagner—1310100F. Pusch—1512123
WAug 17 · 09:30R. Wagner—11311113F. Pusch—811381
WAug 17 · 06:30R. Wagner—1111113F. Pusch—7650
WJul 11 · 17:30R. Wagner—1111113F. Pusch—2170
WJul 11 · 15:30R. Wagner—11511113F. Pusch—311921
R. Wagner10
LSep 9 · 12:00P. Saleny2.0012119113R. Wagner1.731051171WSep 9 · 11:00F. Pusch2.0031260R. Wagner1.731114113WSep 9 · 10:30R. Wagner1.618111210143V. Vejvoda2.201161012122LSep 9 · 09:00R. Wagner1.5381070V. Vejvoda2.381112113LSep 9 · 08:30R. Wagner1.611110551P. Saleny2.2061211113LSep 9 · 07:00R. Wagner1.735890F. Pusch2.001111113WSep 9 · 06:00V. Vejvoda2.20791481R. Wagner1.61111112113WSep 5 · 21:28R. Wagner1.611111113R. Pacha2.206780WSep 5 · 20:00R. Wagner1.5051116123K. Schopf2.5011714101WSep 5 · 19:30D. Hofman2.101011711102R. Wagner1.67126119123
F. Pusch10
WSep 9 · 12:30F. Pusch1.6711111115123V. Vejvoda2.10138417102LSep 9 · 11:00F. Pusch2.0031260R. Wagner1.731114113WSep 9 · 10:00P. Saleny2.001111371F. Pusch1.7313911113LSep 9 · 09:28P. Saleny1.7351120113F. Pusch2.001181891WSep 9 · 08:00V. Vejvoda1.9110360F. Pusch1.801211113WSep 9 · 07:00R. Wagner1.735890F. Pusch2.001111113LSep 9 · 06:30F. Pusch1.73591181P. Saleny2.0011114113WSep 8 · 13:30F. Pusch1.801111113J. Ruzicka1.804870WSep 8 · 12:00J. Ruzicka1.73117811122F. Pusch2.00611116143WSep 8 · 11:00R. Urbaniec2.0041191272F. Pusch1.731161110113
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