TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13115184
Played Sep 13Finished
Richard Wagner
Home
1.83
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119811114114––
Jiri Louda
Away
1.83
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:33 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJiri Louda to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRichard Wagner above · Jiri Louda below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-4
Point 69 set 4, 11-4 — our read held Jiri Louda at 54.0%
69 points played in total.
H2H Richard Wagner 3–4 Jiri Louda Richard Wagner has won 3 of their 7 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 13:33What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Louda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-4 in 7
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wagner 1690 vs Louda 1642
Wagner
Correct
both rated, 48 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wagner 60% vs Louda 20%
Wagner
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wagner 50% vs Louda 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wagner +2 · Louda -3
Louda
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Wagner) · live re-read · sealed at 46% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Louda form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWagner 1.83 / Louda 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Wagner)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13115184
Wagner1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
Louda1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 7 meetings
HomeWagner3wins
AwayLouda4wins
2 of 7 to a deciderLouda leads 4–3, and 2 of those 7 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeWagnern = 2, below the 3 needed
AwayLouda80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 7 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wagner2Louda5n = 7Louda took 5 of 7
S2Wagner3Louda4n = 7Louda took 4 of 7
S3Wagner5Louda2n = 7Wagner took 5 of 7
S4Wagner2Louda4n = 6Louda took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 7 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 7 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home229%
3–2Decider, home114%
2–3Decider, away114%
1–3Four sets, away229%
0–3Straight, away114%
These 7 meetings
MetricWagnerLoudaW − LBasisWins34−1in 7 meetingsFirst set25−3of 7Avg pointsper match38.040.7−2.7per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWagnerLoudaBasisWin rate · lifetime102 / 193 vs 607 / 119252.9%50.9%102 / 193 vs 607 / 1192Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.938.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WagnerWagner 1.83/Louda 1.83
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Wagner · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Wagner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record7
WSep 13 · 01:00R. Wagner4111811113J. Louda28911441
LSep 4 · 08:30R. Wagner4211129101J. Louda46131011123
LAug 27 · 23:00R. Wagner31971231J. Louda43111110113
WAug 23 · 17:29R. Wagner4311711143J. Louda376118121
LJul 26 · 08:59R. Wagner177460J. Louda331111113
WJul 26 · 08:00R. Wagner46812114113J. Louda47111061192
LJul 19 · 20:00R. Wagner4661111992J. Louda51119911113
R. Wagner10
LSep 13 · 02:00R. Wagner1.404890M. Regner2.751111113WSep 13 · 24:00S. Kasnik2.20114981R. Wagner1.6151111113WSep 12 · 22:30R. Rose1.6711981272R. Wagner2.106111110113LSep 9 · 13:30R. Wagner1.54811781F. Pusch2.1811611113LSep 9 · 12:00P. Saleny2.0012119113R. Wagner1.731051171WSep 9 · 11:00F. Pusch2.0031260R. Wagner1.731114113WSep 9 · 10:30R. Wagner1.618111210143V. Vejvoda2.201161012122LSep 9 · 09:00R. Wagner1.5381070V. Vejvoda2.381112113LSep 9 · 08:30R. Wagner1.611110551P. Saleny2.2061211113LSep 9 · 07:00R. Wagner1.735890F. Pusch2.001111113
J. Louda10
WSep 13 · 03:00M. Regner1.8310280J. Louda1.831211113WSep 13 · 02:30S. Kasnik2.105650J. Louda1.671111113LSep 12 · 23:30J. Louda2.006650R. Rose1.731111113LSep 12 · 22:00J. Louda1.736118111M. Regner2.0011711133LSep 11 · 02:59J. Louda1.50911591M. Sychra2.5011911113WSep 11 · 02:00M. Sychra2.38561251J. Louda1.53111110113LSep 11 · 24:30J. Louda1.73311761M. Regner2.0011511113LSep 10 · 23:00J. Louda1.67111110992S. Kasnik2.10841211113WSep 10 · 22:00M. Klement2.1081111982J. Louda1.67118811113WSep 9 · 21:28J. Louda1.44131112113M. Vondrak2.631591051
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