TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13115316
Played Sep 13Finished
Richard Wagner
Home
1.40
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 3
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
411811911––––
Michal Regner
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:03 and never touched — 64.5% is still 64.5%
Graded at full timeRichard Wagner to win
64.5%
64.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingRichard Wagner above · Michal Regner below
Set 1 · 4-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 54 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Richard Wagner at 64.5%
54 points played in total.
H2H Richard Wagner 2–1 Michal Regner Michal Regner has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:03What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Wagner
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-1 in 3
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Wagner 1686 vs Regner 1703
Regner
Correct
both rated, 17 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Wagner 60% vs Regner 40%
Wagner
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Wagner 50% vs Regner 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Wagner +3 · Regner -2
Wagner
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Wagner) · live re-read · sealed at 65% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wagner form (60%) is below what odds imply (71%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsWagner 1.40 / Regner 2.75
Signal prob.67% / 33%
Edge (Wagner)+0.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13115316
Wagner1.40
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite57% won 65 of 115
Up 2–0, closes it97% 31 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it78% 47 of 60
Regner2.75
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog45% won 109 of 243
Down 0–1, comes back25% 29 of 118
Down 0–2, comes back9% 6 of 70
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeWagner2wins
AwayRegner1wins
Wagner leads 2–1.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Wagner1Regner2n = 3Regner took 2 of 3
S2Wagner2Regner1n = 3Wagner took 2 of 3
S3Wagner2Regner1n = 3Wagner took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home133%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away133%
These 3 meetings
MetricWagnerRegnerW − RBasisWins21+1in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match30.326.3+4.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricWagnerRegnerBasisWin rate · lifetime102 / 194 vs 510 / 105952.6%48.2%102 / 194 vs 510 / 1059Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.836.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WagnerWagner 1.40/Regner 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
67.1%
Wagner · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Regner won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 13 · 02:00R. Wagner214890M. Regner331111113
WAug 8 · 08:30R. Wagner3741111113M. Regner29114771
WAug 5 · 02:00R. Wagner331111113M. Regner177730
R. Wagner10
WSep 13 · 01:00R. Wagner1.8311811113J. Louda1.83911441WSep 13 · 24:00S. Kasnik2.20114981R. Wagner1.6151111113WSep 12 · 22:30R. Rose1.6711981272R. Wagner2.106111110113LSep 9 · 13:30R. Wagner1.54811781F. Pusch2.1811611113LSep 9 · 12:00P. Saleny2.0012119113R. Wagner1.731051171WSep 9 · 11:00F. Pusch2.0031260R. Wagner1.731114113WSep 9 · 10:30R. Wagner1.618111210143V. Vejvoda2.201161012122LSep 9 · 09:00R. Wagner1.5381070V. Vejvoda2.381112113LSep 9 · 08:30R. Wagner1.611110551P. Saleny2.2061211113LSep 9 · 07:00R. Wagner1.735890F. Pusch2.001111113
M. Regner10
LSep 13 · 24:30M. Regner1.618950R. Rose2.201111113LSep 12 · 23:00M. Regner2.38186571S. Kasnik1.53161111113WSep 12 · 22:00J. Louda1.736118111M. Regner2.0011711133LSep 12 · 13:31P. Saleny1.501111113M. Regner2.506110WSep 12 · 12:00M. Regner1.8311119113M. Sychra1.83881141LSep 12 · 11:30P. Saleny1.6111119123M. Regner2.205611101WSep 12 · 10:00M. Regner2.631111113S. Kasnik1.446690LSep 11 · 03:30S. Kasnik1.5211711113M. Regner2.35811881LSep 11 · 01:30M. Regner2.509390S. Kasnik1.501111113WSep 11 · 24:30J. Louda1.73311761M. Regner2.0011511113
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