TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13114874
Played Sep 13Finished
Radek Rose
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
114115114––––
Sebastian Kasnik
Away
2.50
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
1–9Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 12:23 and never touched — 59.8% is still 59.8%
Graded at full timeRadek Rose to win
59.8%
59.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingRadek Rose above · Sebastian Kasnik below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 11-4
Point 46 set 3, 11-4 — our read held Radek Rose at 59.8%
46 points played in total.
H2H Radek Rose 11–4 Sebastian Kasnik Sebastian Kasnik has won 4 of their 15 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 12:23What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Rose
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
11-4 in 15
Rose
Correct
gap of 7 in 15, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rose 1703 vs Kasnik 1525
Rose
Correct
both rated, 177 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rose 80% vs Kasnik 20%
Rose
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rose 60% vs Kasnik 10%
Rose
Correct
50pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Rose +2 · Kasnik -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Rose) · live re-read · sealed at 60% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kasnik form (20%) is below what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRose 1.50 / Kasnik 2.50
Signal prob.65% / 36%
Edge (Rose)+2.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13114874
Rose1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite64% won 33 of 52
Up 2–0, closes it100% 17 of 17
Up 1–0, closes it74% 23 of 31
Kasnik2.50
10%won 1 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As underdog40% won 117 of 294
Down 0–1, comes back21% 32 of 156
Down 0–2, comes back10% 9 of 88
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRose6wins
AwayKasnik4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderRose leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRose50%2 of 4
AwayKasnik33.3%2 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rose4Kasnik6n = 10Kasnik took 6 of 10
S2Rose7Kasnik3n = 10Rose took 7 of 10
S3Rose4Kasnik6n = 10Kasnik took 6 of 10
S4Rose6Kasnik3n = 9Rose took 6 of 9
S5Rose2Kasnik2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricRoseKasnikR − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match40.539.6+0.9per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRoseKasnikBasisWin rate · lifetime156 / 334 vs 477 / 100946.7%47.3%156 / 334 vs 477 / 1009Avg sets wonper match1.91.9per matchAvg pointsper match36.936.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RoseRose 1.50/Kasnik 2.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.5%
Rose · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Rose won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJun 19 · 14:00R. Rose4713691182S. Kasnik521111118113
WJun 10 · 15:00R. Rose44741111113S. Kasnik4511116892
WJan 26 · 19:30R. Rose4281111123S. Kasnik311128101
LJan 19 · 21:30R. Rose208570S. Kasnik331111113
LJan 14 · 21:00R. Rose4212114962S. Kasnik481051111113
WDec 15 · 21:00R. Rose541111912113S. Kasnik4896111482
LDec 2 · 20:00R. Rose348111141S. Kasnik3911413113
WOct 1 · 21:00R. Rose3741111113S. Kasnik30118471
WOct 1 · 19:00R. Rose4291111113S. Kasnik31115781
WSep 30 · 21:00R. Rose43111110113S. Kasnik39991291
R. Rose10
WSep 13 · 24:30M. Regner1.618950R. Rose2.201111113WSep 12 · 23:30J. Louda2.006650R. Rose1.731111113LSep 12 · 22:30R. Rose1.6711981272R. Wagner2.106111110113WSep 9 · 20:58R. Rose2.63111157113M. Sychra1.4484111152WSep 9 · 20:00R. Rose1.801111113M. Vondrak1.913180LSep 9 · 19:30M. Sychra1.44111116113R. Rose2.639131491LSep 9 · 18:00R. Rose1.678101191J. Louda2.1011127113WSep 6 · 17:29R. Rose1.73111194113M. Pikous2.0049111152WSep 6 · 16:00R. Rose1.331111113K. Schopf3.258620LSep 6 · 15:30M. Pikous2.10111011113R. Rose1.67812841
S. Kasnik10
LSep 13 · 02:30S. Kasnik2.105650J. Louda1.671111113LSep 13 · 24:00S. Kasnik2.20114981R. Wagner1.6151111113WSep 12 · 23:00M. Regner2.38186571S. Kasnik1.53161111113LSep 12 · 13:01M. Sychra1.8571111123S. Kasnik1.851155101LSep 12 · 12:30S. Kasnik2.6311840P. Saleny1.441311113LSep 12 · 11:00S. Kasnik1.738911101M. Sychra2.0011119123LSep 12 · 10:00M. Regner2.631111113S. Kasnik1.446690LSep 12 · 08:59P. Saleny1.5011611113S. Kasnik2.50511711LSep 12 · 08:00P. Saleny1.5011118113S. Kasnik2.50581121LSep 12 · 07:00M. Klement1.61119114133S. Kasnik2.20911711112
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