TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13118495
Played Sep 12Finished
Simon Kadavy
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 10Form at publish
10–0Last 10Won last 10
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
114119911117––
Martin Sopko
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 03:01 and never touched — 62.0% is still 62.0%
Graded at full timeSimon Kadavy to win
62.0%
62.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingSimon Kadavy above · Martin Sopko below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 73 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Simon Kadavy at 62.0%
73 points played in total.
H2H Simon Kadavy 12–6 Martin Sopko Martin Sopko has won 6 of their 18 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 1h before this match
Kadavy beat Sopko 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 03:01What took a side6 for · 0 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Kadavy
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-6 in 18
Kadavy
Correct
gap of 6 in 18, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kadavy 1715 vs Sopko 1628
Kadavy
Correct
both rated, 87 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kadavy 100% vs Sopko 60%
Kadavy
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kadavy 100% vs Sopko 70%
Kadavy
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kadavy +5 · Sopko -2
Kadavy
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
6 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Kadavy) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kadavy form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKadavy 1.73 / Sopko 2.00
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Kadavy)+4.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13118495
Kadavy1.73
100%won 10 of 10 · last 10
Won last 10
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite60% won 38 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it100% 19 of 19
Up 1–0, closes it72% 26 of 36
Sopko2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog47% won 37 of 78
Down 0–1, comes back36% 17 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back8% 2 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKadavy6wins
AwaySopko4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderKadavy leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKadavy75%3 of 4
AwaySopko50%3 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kadavy4Sopko6n = 10Sopko took 6 of 10
S2Kadavy6Sopko4n = 10Kadavy took 6 of 10
S3Kadavy5Sopko5n = 10split evenly
S4Kadavy5Sopko1n = 6Kadavy took 5 of 6
S5Kadavy2Sopko2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricKadavySopkoK − SBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match36.636.60.0per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKadavySopkoBasisWin rate · lifetime271 / 535 vs 167 / 35550.7%47%271 / 535 vs 167 / 355Avg sets wonper match2.01.9per matchAvg pointsper match38.036.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KadavyKadavy 1.73/Sopko 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.6%
Kadavy · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Kadavy won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 12 · 02:30S. Kadavy—511611113M. Sopko—11711952
WMar 3 · 23:00S. Kadavy—81111113M. Sopko—118561
LFeb 26 · 23:30S. Kadavy—12114562M. Sopko—1051111113
WJan 20 · 19:30S. Kadavy—11116113M. Sopko—981191
LJan 18 · 20:00S. Kadavy—6750M. Sopko—1111113
WDec 24 · 23:00S. Kadavy—1114113M. Sopko—31280
LDec 22 · 03:00S. Kadavy—108111132M. Sopko—121178113
WDec 7 · 20:30S. Kadavy—961111113M. Sopko—11117982
WNov 25 · 20:00S. Kadavy—1212113M. Sopko—101040
LJun 29 · 14:30S. Kadavy—8880M. Sopko—1111113
S. Kadavy10
WSep 12 · 02:30M. Sopko1.8311711952S. Kadavy1.83511611113WSep 12 · 01:00V. Cermak2.00891111112S. Kadavy1.73111147133WSep 11 · 23:30S. Kadavy1.6114611123R. Krejci2.2012118101WSep 11 · 22:00S. Kadavy1.73101111123P. Pycha2.001297101WSep 5 · 03:28S. Kadavy1.5711811113R. Krejci2.25611491WSep 5 · 02:30S. Kadavy1.801111113D. Kouble1.919180WSep 5 · 01:30T. Janata1.73138951S. Kadavy2.00111111113WSep 5 · 24:00S. Kadavy1.4471111113R. Krejci2.63118991WSep 4 · 23:00P. Pycha2.0057150S. Kadavy1.731111173WSep 4 · 16:59J. Stolfa1.67731281S. Kadavy2.10111110113
M. Sopko10
LSep 12 · 02:30M. Sopko1.8311711952S. Kadavy1.83511611113LSep 12 · 01:30R. Krejci3.251111113M. Sopko1.338790WSep 12 · 24:00M. Sopko1.731111113V. Cermak2.001860WSep 11 · 23:00P. Pycha2.509511101M. Sopko1.5011113123WSep 9 · 03:30M. Sobisek1.65118641M. Sopko2.1091111113WSep 9 · 02:30M. Sopko1.441111113D. Tuma2.636960WSep 9 · 01:30V. Cermak1.80611581M. Sopko1.9111511113WSep 9 · 24:00M. Sopko1.331111113A. Hlawatschke3.256760LSep 8 · 23:00M. Sobisek1.801111113M. Sopko1.918890WAug 27 · 03:00V. Cermak1.5246120M. Sopko2.351111143
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