TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126422
Played Sep 14Finished
David Sabuka
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
111312101210119––
Jakub Dufek Jnr
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:44 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timeJakub Dufek Jnr to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDavid Sabuka above · Jakub Dufek Jnr below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 88 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Jakub Dufek Jnr at 57.7%
88 points played in total.
H2H David Sabuka 0–2 Jakub Dufek Jnr David Sabuka has won 0 of their 2 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:44What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Jnr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-2 in 2
—
Too close
2 played, under the floor of 3
Rating (G2)
Sabuka 1305 vs Jnr 1337
Jnr
Wrong
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sabuka 40% vs Jnr 20%
Sabuka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sabuka 50% vs Jnr 30%
Sabuka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Sabuka -1 · Jnr -3
Jnr
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Jnr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Jnr form (20%) is below what odds imply (62%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSabuka 2.20 / Jnr 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Jnr)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13126422
Sabuka2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog27% won 26 of 96
Down 0–1, comes back12% 8 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 40
Jnr1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite62% won 88 of 141
Up 2–0, closes it92% 46 of 50
Up 1–0, closes it75% 63 of 84
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 2 meetings
HomeSabuka0wins
AwayJnr2wins
1 of 2 to a deciderJnr leads 2–0, and 1 of those 2 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 2 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S2
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S3
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 2 finishedn = 2, below the 3 needed
3–0Straight, home0
3–1Four sets, home0
3–2Decider, home0
2–3Decider, away1
1–3Four sets, away1
0–3Straight, away0
These 2 meetings
MetricSabukaJnrS − JBasisWins02−2in 2 meetingsFirst set02−2of 2Avg pointsper match37.545.0−7.5per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSabukaJnrBasisWin rate · lifetime244 / 518 vs 246 / 47847.1%51.5%244 / 518 vs 246 / 478Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.538.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
JnrSabuka 2.20/Jnr 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Jnr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Sabuka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record2
LSep 12 · 20:00D. Sabuka32681171J. Jnr4111118113
LJul 22 · 12:00D. Sabuka4375111192J. Jnr49111197113
D. Sabuka10
LSep 14 · 09:30D. Sabuka2.38101211582M. Holub1.531210611113WSep 12 · 20:34D. Sabuka1.911111113J. Mares1.804220LSep 12 · 20:00D. Sabuka2.00681171J. Jnr1.7311118113LSep 12 · 18:30J. Mares2.383131373D. Sabuka1.5311111151WSep 12 · 18:00J. Seeman2.00123112132D. Sabuka1.7310111110153WSep 1 · 08:43D. Sabuka1.221111113A. Skyba4.007940LSep 1 · 08:00M. Cmil1.731111114143D. Sabuka2.00613911122WSep 1 · 07:00A. Skyba3.751111791D. Sabuka1.2513611113LSep 1 · 05:30M. Cervenka4.5011411133D. Sabuka1.178119111WAug 31 · 13:03J. Seeman1.9175111112D. Sabuka1.80111186113
J. Jnr10
LSep 14 · 10:00F. Fryml1.9111128113J. Jnr1.805101171LSep 13 · 20:35P. Moulis1.441112123J. Jnr2.63910100LSep 13 · 19:30J. Mejzlik1.53147811143J. Jnr2.381211118122WSep 13 · 19:00J. Jnr2.501611113P. Moulis1.5014660LSep 13 · 18:00J. Jnr2.631112551J. Hanacek1.44131011113LSep 12 · 21:03J. Jnr2.20111012772J. Seeman1.619121011113WSep 12 · 20:00D. Sabuka2.00681171J. Jnr1.7311118113LSep 12 · 19:00J. Seeman1.91611912113J. Jnr1.801171110102WSep 12 · 17:30J. Mares3.7531250J. Jnr1.251114113LSep 9 · 12:58P. Moulis1.731111113J. Jnr2.006480
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