TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13126889
Played Sep 14Finished
David Sabuka
Home
2.38
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
10121210116511811
Martin Holub
Away
1.53
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 22:56 and never touched — 62.8% is still 62.8%
Graded at full timeMartin Holub to win
62.8%
62.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Sabuka above · Martin Holub below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 96 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Martin Holub at 62.8%
96 points played in total.
H2H David Sabuka 2–8 Martin Holub David Sabuka has won 2 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 22:56What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Holub
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-8 in 10
Holub
Correct
gap of 6 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Sabuka 1315 vs Holub 1368
Holub
Correct
both rated, 53 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Sabuka 60% vs Holub 40%
Sabuka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Sabuka 50% vs Holub 50%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Sabuka +1 · Holub -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Holub)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holub form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSabuka 2.38 / Holub 1.53
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Holub)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #13126889
Sabuka2.38
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog27% won 26 of 96
Down 0–1, comes back12% 8 of 67
Down 0–2, comes back3% 1 of 40
Holub1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 91 of 158
Up 2–0, closes it98% 46 of 47
Up 1–0, closes it74% 67 of 91
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSabuka2wins
AwayHolub8wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHolub leads 8–2, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSabuka33.3%1 of 3
AwayHolub85.7%6 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Sabuka3Holub7n = 10Holub took 7 of 10
S2Sabuka4Holub6n = 10Holub took 6 of 10
S3Sabuka3Holub7n = 10Holub took 7 of 10
S4Sabuka2Holub6n = 8Holub took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away550%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSabukaHolubS − HBasisWins28−6in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.241.0−4.8per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSabukaHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime244 / 517 vs 362 / 66147.2%54.8%244 / 517 vs 362 / 661Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.539.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolubSabuka 2.38/Holub 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.8%
Holub · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Holub won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 13 · 09:30D. Sabuka36811891M. Holub4011711113
LAug 12 · 05:30D. Sabuka30115771M. Holub4181111113
WAug 9 · 16:58D. Sabuka517111111113M. Holub4611713782
LAug 9 · 16:00D. Sabuka247890M. Holub331111113
LAug 8 · 21:03D. Sabuka3911511121M. Holub4613118143
LAug 8 · 20:00D. Sabuka31811751M. Holub4111811113
LAug 4 · 12:58D. Sabuka331175101M. Holub3841111123
LAug 4 · 11:00D. Sabuka2558120M. Holub361111143
WAug 2 · 07:00D. Sabuka4811712183M. Holub4581110161
LJul 26 · 19:30D. Sabuka4571111972M. Holub44114711113
D. Sabuka10
WSep 12 · 20:34D. Sabuka1.911111113J. Mares1.804220LSep 12 · 20:00D. Sabuka2.00681171J. Jnr1.7311118113LSep 12 · 18:30J. Mares2.383131373D. Sabuka1.5311111151WSep 12 · 18:00J. Seeman2.00123112132D. Sabuka1.7310111110153WSep 1 · 08:43D. Sabuka1.221111113A. Skyba4.007940LSep 1 · 08:00M. Cmil1.731111114143D. Sabuka2.00613911122WSep 1 · 07:00A. Skyba3.751111791D. Sabuka1.2513611113LSep 1 · 05:30M. Cervenka4.5011411133D. Sabuka1.178119111WAug 31 · 13:03J. Seeman1.9175111112D. Sabuka1.80111186113LAug 31 · 11:30V. Kucala2.20111011113D. Sabuka1.61912141
M. Holub10
LSep 13 · 15:30M. Snizek1.9111117103M. Holub1.80781171WSep 13 · 15:00M. Holub2.75111171133J. Seeman1.40491111112LSep 13 · 14:00M. Holub1.911183131L. Krutina1.8091111153LSep 9 · 09:09M. Holub1.83511871L. Krutina1.8311611113WSep 9 · 08:00A. Akopyan2.201071461M. Holub1.61121112113WSep 9 · 07:00F. Fryml2.201179121M. Holub1.6151111143LSep 9 · 05:30L. Krutina1.8011118153M. Holub1.916911131WSep 6 · 17:08M. Holub1.111111113V. Coubal6.005460LSep 6 · 16:00A. Akopyan2.0091111113M. Holub1.73119741WSep 6 · 15:00P. Muller2.631110761M. Holub1.4481211113
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