TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100728
Played Sep 9Finished
Filip Fryml
Home
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1157119111214––
Martin Holub
Away
1.62
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:27 and never touched — 59.3% is still 59.3%
Graded at full timeMartin Holub to win
59.3%
59.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingFilip Fryml above · Martin Holub below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 7-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 12-14
Point 80 set 4, 12-14 — our read held Martin Holub at 59.3%
80 points played in total.
H2H Filip Fryml 8–11 Martin Holub Filip Fryml has won 8 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:27What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Holub
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-11 in 19
Holub
Correct
gap of 3 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Fryml 1313 vs Holub 1379
Holub
Correct
both rated, 67 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Fryml 60% vs Holub 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Fryml 60% vs Holub 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Fryml +1 · Holub -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Holub)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Fryml form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsFryml 2.20 / Holub 1.61
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Holub)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13100728
Fryml2.20
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog44% won 15 of 34
Down 0–1, comes back30% 6 of 20
Down 0–2, comes back15% 2 of 13
Holub1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 104 of 176
Up 2–0, closes it98% 52 of 53
Up 1–0, closes it75% 76 of 102
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeFryml3wins
AwayHolub7wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHolub leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeFryml50%3 of 6
AwayHolub100%4 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Fryml6Holub4n = 10Fryml took 6 of 10
S2Fryml4Holub6n = 10Holub took 6 of 10
S3Fryml1Holub9n = 10Holub took 9 of 10
S4Fryml3Holub4n = 8Holub took 4 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricFrymlHolubF − HBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match35.538.5−3.0per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricFrymlHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime72 / 145 vs 366 / 66449.7%55.1%72 / 145 vs 366 / 664Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.839.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolubFryml 2.20/Holub 1.61
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
59.3%
Holub · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Holub won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 07:00F. Fryml—1179121M. Holub—51111143
LAug 27 · 09:03F. Fryml—5790M. Holub—1111113
LAug 27 · 06:30F. Fryml—111061292M. Holub—8121110113
WAug 12 · 06:30F. Fryml—111163113M. Holub—79111182
LJun 19 · 08:39F. Fryml—10580M. Holub—1211113
LJun 19 · 07:30F. Fryml—10111311M. Holub—1291513
LMay 28 · 06:30F. Fryml—1171081M. Holub—31112113
WMay 19 · 07:00F. Fryml—11115113M. Holub—781181
WMar 31 · 20:58F. Fryml—111111113M. Holub—471381
LMar 31 · 18:00F. Fryml—361191M. Holub—11116113
F. Fryml10
LSep 9 · 07:30L. Krutina2.0091111113F. Fryml1.73115481WSep 9 · 06:00F. Fryml1.611111113A. Akopyan2.207620LAug 27 · 09:03F. Fryml1.835790M. Holub1.831111113WAug 27 · 08:00F. Fryml1.73101111113M. Cmil2.00127981LAug 27 · 06:30M. Holub1.808121110113F. Fryml1.91111061292WAug 27 · 06:00M. Snizek1.50771191F. Fryml2.5011114113WAug 26 · 08:39F. Fryml3.504101111113J. Krejcik1.2811129982LAug 26 · 07:30J. Krejcik1.611113113F. Fryml2.2061160WAug 26 · 07:00F. Fryml2.63111197113M. Snizek1.4447111192WAug 26 · 06:00F. Fryml2.6311611113P. Cizek1.44711671
M. Holub10
LSep 9 · 05:30L. Krutina1.8011118153M. Holub1.916911131WSep 6 · 17:08M. Holub1.111111113V. Coubal6.005460LSep 6 · 16:00A. Akopyan2.0091111113M. Holub1.73119741WSep 6 · 15:00P. Muller2.631110761M. Holub1.4481211113WSep 6 · 13:30V. Coubal3.4012711492M. Holub1.301011811113WSep 5 · 12:40M. Holub1.53613311113A. Akopyan2.38111111642WSep 5 · 12:00L. Krutina1.80111012992M. Holub1.919121011113LSep 5 · 11:00M. Cmil2.00951111113M. Holub1.7311119562WAug 27 · 09:03F. Fryml1.835790M. Holub1.831111113WAug 27 · 06:30M. Holub1.808121110113F. Fryml1.91111061292
Upcoming Matches
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M. Holub
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