TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13100569
Played Sep 9Finished
Lukas Krutina
Home
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161198111513––
Martin Holub
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:52 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Krutina to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Krutina above · Martin Holub below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-9
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 15-13
Point 84 set 4, 15-13 — our read held Lukas Krutina at 54.0%
84 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Krutina 30–26 Martin Holub Martin Holub has won 26 of their 56 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:52What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Krutina
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
30-26 in 56
Krutina
Correct
gap of 4 in 56, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Krutina 1350 vs Holub 1382
Holub
Wrong
both rated, 31 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Krutina 60% vs Holub 80%
Holub
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Krutina 60% vs Holub 70%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Krutina -2 · Holub +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Krutina)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holub form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKrutina 1.80 / Holub 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Krutina)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13100569
Krutina1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite52% won 33 of 63
Up 2–0, closes it88% 14 of 16
Up 1–0, closes it70% 23 of 33
Holub1.91
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog52% won 67 of 128
Down 0–1, comes back31% 18 of 58
Down 0–2, comes back12% 3 of 25
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeKrutina5wins
AwayHolub5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeKrutina66.7%4 of 6
AwayHolub75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Krutina6Holub4n = 10Krutina took 6 of 10
S2Krutina4Holub6n = 10Holub took 6 of 10
S3Krutina6Holub4n = 10Krutina took 6 of 10
S4Krutina6Holub3n = 9Krutina took 6 of 9
S5Krutina2Holub4n = 6Holub took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricKrutinaHolubK − HBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match41.941.2+0.7per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKrutinaHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime110 / 213 vs 367 / 66651.6%55.1%110 / 213 vs 367 / 666Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KrutinaKrutina 1.80/Holub 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Krutina · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Krutina won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 5 · 12:00L. Krutina—111012992M. Holub—9121011113
WAug 4 · 10:00L. Krutina—11311113M. Holub—611621
LJun 28 · 20:58L. Krutina—8118101M. Holub—11911123
WJun 28 · 20:00L. Krutina—11811113M. Holub—611991
LJun 26 · 12:28L. Krutina—41341162M. Holub—1111119113
LJun 26 · 11:30L. Krutina—76111172M. Holub—111169113
LJun 21 · 06:00L. Krutina—11681192M. Holub—911116113
WJun 18 · 16:00L. Krutina—661111123M. Holub—111189102
WJun 13 · 15:45L. Krutina—1111113M. Holub—5940
WJun 12 · 07:00L. Krutina—1111107113M. Holub—76121142
L. Krutina10
WSep 9 · 06:30L. Krutina1.33111111113A. Akopyan3.25561351LSep 5 · 13:08L. Krutina1.8511119972M. Cmil1.85791111113LSep 5 · 12:00L. Krutina1.80111012992M. Holub1.919121011113WSep 5 · 10:30A. Akopyan2.754890L. Krutina1.401111113WSep 5 · 10:00M. Cmil1.8311811892L. Krutina1.83911911113WSep 3 · 09:03L. Krutina2.101111610133A. Skyba1.67971112112WSep 3 · 08:00M. Cmil1.807111191L. Krutina1.9111137113LSep 3 · 07:00A. Skyba2.381111113L. Krutina1.535670WSep 3 · 05:30J. Vrnak3.401177101L. Krutina1.3041111123WAug 4 · 12:29L. Krutina1.441111113A. Akopyan2.636780
M. Holub10
WSep 6 · 17:08M. Holub1.111111113V. Coubal6.005460LSep 6 · 16:00A. Akopyan2.0091111113M. Holub1.73119741WSep 6 · 15:00P. Muller2.631110761M. Holub1.4481211113WSep 6 · 13:30V. Coubal3.4012711492M. Holub1.301011811113WSep 5 · 12:40M. Holub1.53613311113A. Akopyan2.38111111642WSep 5 · 12:00L. Krutina1.80111012992M. Holub1.919121011113LSep 5 · 11:00M. Cmil2.00951111113M. Holub1.7311119562LSep 5 · 09:30A. Akopyan2.001211113M. Holub1.7310490WSep 2 · 13:08M. Holub2.001113113J. Jnr1.7391170WSep 2 · 12:00M. Holub2.754111311123P. Moulis1.401171113102
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