TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13121782
Played Sep 13Finished
Michal Snizek
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
117118711107––
Martin Holub
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:50 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeMartin Holub to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingMichal Snizek above · Martin Holub below
Set 1 · 11-7
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 10-7
Point 72 set 4, 10-7 — our read held Martin Holub at 54.0%
72 points played in total.
H2H Michal Snizek 14–20 Martin Holub Michal Snizek has won 14 of their 34 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:50What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Holub
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-20 in 34
Holub
Wrong
gap of 6 in 34, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Snizek 1313 vs Holub 1372
Holub
Wrong
both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Snizek 20% vs Holub 40%
Holub
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Snizek 40% vs Holub 60%
Holub
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Snizek -2 · Holub -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Holub)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Holub form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSnizek 1.91 / Holub 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Holub)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13121782
Snizek1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 18 of 43
Down 0–1, comes back13% 3 of 23
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 13
Holub1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 93 of 160
Up 2–0, closes it98% 47 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it74% 68 of 92
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSnizek4wins
AwayHolub6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderHolub leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSnizek75%3 of 4
AwayHolub83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Snizek4Holub6n = 10Holub took 6 of 10
S2Snizek5Holub5n = 10split evenly
S3Snizek5Holub5n = 10split evenly
S4Snizek2Holub5n = 7Holub took 5 of 7
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricSnizekHolubS − HBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match35.436.9−1.5per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSnizekHolubBasisWin rate · lifetime176 / 336 vs 362 / 66052.4%54.9%176 / 336 vs 362 / 660Avg sets wonper match2.02.2per matchAvg pointsper match37.739.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HolubSnizek 1.91/Holub 1.80
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Holub · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Snizek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 27 · 07:30M. Snizek371110881M. Holub4281211113
WAug 9 · 13:30M. Snizek331111113M. Holub165740
WJul 19 · 07:00M. Snizek47111168113M. Holub4249111172
LJul 16 · 09:14M. Snizek47713116102M. Holub541111911123
WJul 16 · 07:00M. Snizek44111111113M. Holub33713671
LJul 12 · 12:48M. Snizek207940M. Holub331111113
LJul 12 · 09:15M. Snizek29641181M. Holub3911116113
LJun 25 · 07:15M. Snizek334117111M. Holub4411911133
WJun 19 · 07:00M. Snizek3961111113M. Holub33118591
LJun 18 · 16:33M. Snizek259970M. Holub331111113
M. Snizek10
LSep 13 · 14:30M. Snizek1.61116101162L. Krutina2.20811125103LSep 13 · 13:30M. Snizek2.20137641J. Seeman1.6111111193WSep 11 · 08:49P. Moulis2.2561231192M. Snizek1.571110119113LSep 11 · 07:30M. Snizek2.20713731F. Husek1.61111111113LSep 11 · 06:30M. Snizek3.005960J. Puk1.361111113WSep 11 · 05:30M. Snizek1.73811511113P. Moulis2.0011511862WSep 4 · 08:53P. Moulis2.3831111892M. Snizek1.53118611113LSep 4 · 07:30M. Snizek2.2061151172M. Vorel1.61117118113LSep 4 · 06:30M. Snizek2.6310660J. Puk1.441211113WSep 4 · 05:30M. Snizek1.6111116113P. Moulis2.20561151
M. Holub10
WSep 13 · 15:00M. Holub2.75111171133J. Seeman1.40491111112LSep 13 · 14:00M. Holub1.911183131L. Krutina1.8091111153LSep 9 · 09:09M. Holub1.83511871L. Krutina1.8311611113WSep 9 · 08:00A. Akopyan2.201071461M. Holub1.61121112113WSep 9 · 07:00F. Fryml2.201179121M. Holub1.6151111143LSep 9 · 05:30L. Krutina1.8011118153M. Holub1.916911131WSep 6 · 17:08M. Holub1.111111113V. Coubal6.005460LSep 6 · 16:00A. Akopyan2.0091111113M. Holub1.73119741WSep 6 · 15:00P. Muller2.631110761M. Holub1.4481211113WSep 6 · 13:30V. Coubal3.4012711492M. Holub1.301011811113
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