TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13122103
Played Sep 13Finished
Petr Maly
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 4
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1513116711119––
Jakub Nemecek Snr
Away
2.20
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:58 and never touched — 57.7% is still 57.7%
Graded at full timePetr Maly to win
57.7%
57.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingPetr Maly above · Jakub Nemecek Snr below
Set 1 · 15-13
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 83 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Petr Maly at 57.7%
83 points played in total.
H2H Petr Maly 7–6 Jakub Nemecek Snr Jakub Nemecek Snr has won 6 of their 13 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:58What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Maly
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-6 in 13
—
Too close
gap of 1, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Maly 1532 vs Snr 1536
Snr
Wrong
both rated, 4 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Maly 80% vs Snr 20%
Maly
Correct
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Maly 60% vs Snr 40%
Maly
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Maly +4 · Snr +1
Maly
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Maly)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Snr form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMaly 1.61 / Snr 2.20
Signal prob.58% / 42%
Edge (Maly)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13122103
Maly1.61
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite53% won 58 of 110
Up 2–0, closes it89% 25 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it67% 42 of 63
Snr2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog50% won 8 of 16
Down 0–1, comes back25% 2 of 8
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMaly5wins
AwaySnr5wins
5 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 5 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMaly80%4 of 5
AwaySnr80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Maly5Snr5n = 10split evenly
S2Maly5Snr5n = 10split evenly
S3Maly7Snr3n = 10Maly took 7 of 10
S4Maly4Snr5n = 9Snr took 5 of 9
S5Maly2Snr3n = 5Snr took 3 of 5
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricMalySnrM − SBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match44.441.2+3.2per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMalySnrBasisWin rate · lifetime238 / 444 vs 58 / 14153.6%41.1%238 / 444 vs 58 / 141Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.638.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MalyMaly 1.61/Snr 2.20
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
57.7%
Maly · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Maly won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 18:00P. Maly46116117113J. Snr4091151142
LMar 5 · 20:00P. Maly408912111J. Snr45111110133
LDec 7 · 15:00P. Maly54812813132J. Snr5811101111153
WNov 9 · 14:45P. Maly4211127123J. Snr3761011101
WOct 27 · 19:45P. Maly50711147113J. Snr46115121172
LSep 14 · 14:45P. Maly541291111112J. Snr47141118133
WAug 16 · 15:30P. Maly341111123J. Snr2679100
LAug 3 · 17:05P. Maly4991111992J. Snr39111511113
LAug 3 · 16:00P. Maly351161081J. Snr3851112103
WAug 2 · 10:00P. Maly4011711113J. Snr36711991
P. Maly10
WSep 11 · 21:08P. Maly1.571112113L. Krasl2.2591070WSep 11 · 20:00P. Maly1.67119113113V. Herrmann2.1091181192WSep 11 · 18:30L. Krasl1.914115111P. Maly1.8011911133WSep 11 · 18:00J. Snr2.2091151142P. Maly1.61116117113LSep 8 · 20:43J. Simek1.539171110143P. Maly2.381115412122WSep 8 · 19:15P. Maly2.001111113R. Merkl1.739770LSep 8 · 18:15P. Maly2.251211512102J. Simek1.571431110123WSep 8 · 17:15P. Maly1.8391111113J. Juppa1.83114381LSep 5 · 12:19V. Lopata1.67101111113P. Maly2.10126851LSep 5 · 11:15P. Maly1.6112111171V. Herrmann2.2014138103
J. Snr10
WSep 11 · 20:38V. Herrmann1.5385111262J. Snr2.381111610113LSep 11 · 19:30L. Krasl1.9121511123J. Snr1.8011135101LSep 11 · 19:00J. Snr2.00117831V. Herrmann1.7361111113LSep 11 · 18:00J. Snr2.2091151142P. Maly1.61116117113LSep 3 · 21:13S. Kalensky1.7361111113J. Snr2.00118871WSep 3 · 19:30J. Snr2.101211119113M. Cizek1.6714751172LSep 3 · 18:30J. Snr2.0061111242S. Kalensky1.73117811113WSep 3 · 17:30J. Snr1.73871111113F. Kubos2.0011118572LSep 1 · 20:58S. Kalensky1.8371113113J. Snr1.831181151WSep 1 · 19:30J. Snr2.501113133M. Cizek1.50411110
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