TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13122019
Played Sep 13Finished
Ondrej Kaderabek
Home
3.25
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
511118811511––
Josef Chalupa
Away
1.33
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:29 and never touched — 70.9% is still 70.9%
Graded at full timeJosef Chalupa to win
70.9%
70.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Kaderabek above · Josef Chalupa below
Set 1 · 5-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 5-11
Point 70 set 4, 5-11 — our read held Josef Chalupa at 70.9%
70 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Kaderabek 0–4 Josef Chalupa Ondrej Kaderabek has won 0 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:29What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.33 (71%)
Chalupa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
0-4 in 4
Chalupa
Correct
gap of 4 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Kaderabek 1633 vs Chalupa 1776
Chalupa
Correct
both rated, 143 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Kaderabek 40% vs Chalupa 60%
Chalupa
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Kaderabek 30% vs Chalupa 50%
Chalupa
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Kaderabek -3 · Chalupa -1
Kaderabek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Chalupa)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Chalupa form (60%) is below what odds imply (75%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsKaderabek 3.25 / Chalupa 1.33
Signal prob.29% / 71%
Edge (Chalupa)-0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13122019
Kaderabek3.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog52% won 37 of 71
Down 0–1, comes back33% 12 of 36
Down 0–2, comes back8% 1 of 13
Chalupa1.33
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite58% won 48 of 83
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it73% 29 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeKaderabek0wins
AwayChalupa4wins
Chalupa leads 4–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Kaderabek2Chalupa2n = 4split evenly
S2Kaderabek1Chalupa3n = 4Chalupa took 3 of 4
S3Kaderabek1Chalupa3n = 4Chalupa took 3 of 4
S4Kaderabek0Chalupa4n = 4Chalupa took 4 of 4
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away4100%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricKaderabekChalupaK − CBasisWins04−4in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match31.540.2−8.7per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricKaderabekChalupaBasisWin rate · lifetime200 / 393 vs 206 / 37150.9%55.5%200 / 393 vs 206 / 371Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.840.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupaKaderabek 3.25/Chalupa 1.33
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
70.9%
Chalupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Chalupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 13 · 07:15O. Kaderabek29511851J. Chalupa4111811113
LMay 11 · 19:15O. Kaderabek29921171J. Chalupa3611113113
LDec 4 · 09:25O. Kaderabek32126591J. Chalupa43101111113
LDec 4 · 08:15O. Kaderabek361187101J. Chalupa4171111123
O. Kaderabek10
LSep 13 · 06:15O. Kaderabek1.918580D. Gasparovic1.801111113LSep 13 · 05:15O. Kaderabek1.5051120L. Svoboda2.501113113LAug 2 · 12:45O. Kaderabek2.1011127982L. Heinzl1.677101111113WAug 2 · 11:45L. Rulc1.83111050O. Kaderabek1.831312113WAug 2 · 10:45L. Heinzl1.441061181O. Kaderabek2.6312119113LAug 2 · 09:15M. Makara2.25121153113O. Kaderabek1.57102111162LAug 1 · 12:25O. Kaderabek2.00116881L. Heinzl1.7371111113LAug 1 · 10:15M. Makara2.251111113O. Kaderabek1.573790LAug 1 · 09:45L. Heinzl1.531111113O. Kaderabek2.389870WJul 31 · 08:44O. Kaderabek2.1061111113L. Veigl1.67119881
J. Chalupa10
LSep 13 · 06:45J. Chalupa1.531131261L. Svoboda2.3891114113WSep 13 · 05:45J. Chalupa1.80611511113D. Gasparovic1.9111611882WSep 6 · 16:29J. Chalupa1.4411812113S. Rejent2.638111071LSep 6 · 15:45J. Chalupa1.80111011992V. Burylov1.91812911113WSep 6 · 14:15S. Rejent2.634130J. Chalupa1.441111113LSep 6 · 13:45D. Gasparovic2.1081111113J. Chalupa1.67116791WSep 5 · 08:29J. Chalupa1.61121211133D. Gasparovic2.20101013111LSep 5 · 07:45L. Veigl2.10311811113J. Chalupa1.6711911982WSep 5 · 06:45D. Gasparovic2.20911521J. Chalupa1.6111711113LSep 5 · 05:15M. Zelinka1.83611911113J. Chalupa1.8311811992
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