TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12342261
Played Aug 1Finished
Lukas Heinzl
Home
1.53
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
119118117––––
Ondrej Kaderabek
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
8–2Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:07 and never touched — 63.8% is still 63.8%
Graded at full timeLukas Heinzl to win
63.8%
63.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Heinzl above · Ondrej Kaderabek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-7
Point 57 set 3, 11-7 — our read held Lukas Heinzl at 63.8%
57 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Heinzl 6–3 Ondrej Kaderabek Ondrej Kaderabek has won 3 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:07What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Heinzl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-3 in 9
Heinzl
Correct
gap of 3 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Heinzl 1724 vs Kaderabek 1729
Kaderabek
Wrong
both rated, 5 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Heinzl 60% vs Kaderabek 80%
Kaderabek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Heinzl 60% vs Kaderabek 80%
Kaderabek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Heinzl -2 · Kaderabek +3
Kaderabek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Heinzl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaderabek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHeinzl 1.53 / Kaderabek 2.38
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Heinzl)+3.0pp
Setka Cup · #12342261
Heinzl1.53
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite60% won 135 of 226
Up 2–0, closes it95% 62 of 65
Up 1–0, closes it77% 101 of 132
Kaderabek2.38
80%won 8 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog51% won 48 of 94
Down 0–1, comes back31% 15 of 49
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeHeinzl6wins
AwayKaderabek3wins
5 of 9 to a deciderHeinzl leads 6–3, and 5 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHeinzl83.3%5 of 6
AwayKaderabek66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Heinzl6Kaderabek3n = 9Heinzl took 6 of 9
S2Heinzl7Kaderabek2n = 9Heinzl took 7 of 9
S3Heinzl5Kaderabek4n = 9Heinzl took 5 of 9
S4Heinzl4Kaderabek2n = 6Heinzl took 4 of 6
S5Heinzl2Kaderabek3n = 5Kaderabek took 3 of 5
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home333%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home222%
2–3Decider, away333%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 9 meetings
MetricHeinzlKaderabekH − KBasisWins63+3in 9 meetingsFirst set63+3of 9Avg pointsper match42.635.2+7.4per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHeinzlKaderabekBasisWin rate · lifetime344 / 633 vs 206 / 40354.3%51.1%344 / 633 vs 206 / 403Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.140.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HeinzlHeinzl 1.53/Kaderabek 2.38
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
63.8%
Heinzl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Heinzl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WJun 30 · 06:00L. Heinzl—81114113O. Kaderabek—1121231
WJun 29 · 12:18L. Heinzl—1111113O. Kaderabek—8880
WJun 29 · 10:15L. Heinzl—119114163O. Kaderabek—911411142
LJun 9 · 06:45L. Heinzl—91191262O. Kaderabek—1161110113
WJun 8 · 05:15L. Heinzl—1311113O. Kaderabek—11550
WJun 4 · 12:00L. Heinzl—111199113O. Kaderabek—58111172
WMay 12 · 09:45L. Heinzl—1111113O. Kaderabek—2530
LMay 7 · 12:48L. Heinzl—11981192O. Kaderabek—711118113
LMay 7 · 11:45L. Heinzl—51191152O. Kaderabek—114119113
L. Heinzl10
WSep 7 · 06:15P. Wasik1.531410981L. Heinzl2.38121211113LSep 7 · 05:45L. Veigl2.50111111113L. Heinzl1.50781361LSep 3 · 08:14L. Heinzl1.6781181182M. Makara2.10116113113LSep 3 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.7381380M. Stibor2.001115113LSep 3 · 06:15L. Adam2.0091111113L. Heinzl1.73113791WSep 3 · 05:45M. Makara2.201131191L. Heinzl1.6113119113WSep 2 · 08:48O. Mezera3.40111140L. Heinzl1.301313113LSep 2 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.5011911143L. Heinzl1.508119121WSep 2 · 06:45L. Heinzl1.731111113L. Adam2.008960WSep 2 · 05:45L. Heinzl1.30111179113O. Mezera3.4069111162
O. Kaderabek10
LAug 2 · 12:45O. Kaderabek2.1011127982L. Heinzl1.677101111113WAug 2 · 11:45L. Rulc1.83111050O. Kaderabek1.831312113WAug 2 · 10:45L. Heinzl1.441061181O. Kaderabek2.6312119113LAug 2 · 09:15M. Makara2.25121153113O. Kaderabek1.57102111162LAug 1 · 12:25O. Kaderabek2.00116881L. Heinzl1.7371111113LAug 1 · 10:15M. Makara2.251111113O. Kaderabek1.573790WJul 31 · 08:44O. Kaderabek2.1061111113L. Veigl1.67119881WJul 31 · 07:45V. Burylov1.8371060O. Kaderabek1.831112113WJul 31 · 06:45L. Dobias1.73911391O. Kaderabek2.0011511113LJul 31 · 05:15L. Veigl1.6711511113O. Kaderabek2.10911681
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