TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12347892
Played Aug 2Finished
Lukas Heinzl
Home
1.44
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012611119811––
Ondrej Kaderabek
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:59 and never touched — 68.5% is still 68.5%
Graded at full timeLukas Heinzl to win
68.5%
68.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLukas Heinzl above · Ondrej Kaderabek below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 8-11
Point 78 set 4, 8-11 — our read held Lukas Heinzl at 68.5%
78 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Heinzl 8–3 Ondrej Kaderabek Ondrej Kaderabek has won 3 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 19:59What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Heinzl
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-3 in 11
Heinzl
Wrong
gap of 5 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Heinzl 1713 vs Kaderabek 1646
Heinzl
Wrong
both rated, 68 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Heinzl 60% vs Kaderabek 20%
Heinzl
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Heinzl 60% vs Kaderabek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Heinzl +2 · Kaderabek -4
Kaderabek
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 69% — Clear lean (leans Heinzl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaderabek form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHeinzl 1.44 / Kaderabek 2.63
Signal prob.69% / 32%
Edge (Heinzl)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #12347892
Heinzl1.44
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite59% won 136 of 229
Up 2–0, closes it95% 62 of 65
Up 1–0, closes it77% 101 of 132
Kaderabek2.63
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog50% won 48 of 96
Down 0–1, comes back30% 15 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHeinzl8wins
AwayKaderabek2wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHeinzl leads 8–2, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHeinzl85.7%6 of 7
AwayKaderabek33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Heinzl7Kaderabek3n = 10Heinzl took 7 of 10
S2Heinzl8Kaderabek2n = 10Heinzl took 8 of 10
S3Heinzl7Kaderabek3n = 10Heinzl took 7 of 10
S4Heinzl4Kaderabek2n = 6Heinzl took 4 of 6
S5Heinzl2Kaderabek2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home440%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricHeinzlKaderabekH − KBasisWins82+6in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.532.8+8.7per matchSweeps40+43–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHeinzlKaderabekBasisWin rate · lifetime347 / 638 vs 206 / 40754.4%50.6%347 / 638 vs 206 / 407Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.139.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HeinzlHeinzl 1.44/Kaderabek 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
68.5%
Heinzl · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kaderabek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 1 · 12:25L. Heinzl—71111113O. Kaderabek—116881
WAug 1 · 09:45L. Heinzl—1111113O. Kaderabek—9870
WJun 30 · 06:00L. Heinzl—81114113O. Kaderabek—1121231
WJun 29 · 12:18L. Heinzl—1111113O. Kaderabek—8880
WJun 29 · 10:15L. Heinzl—119114163O. Kaderabek—911411142
LJun 9 · 06:45L. Heinzl—91191262O. Kaderabek—1161110113
WJun 8 · 05:15L. Heinzl—1311113O. Kaderabek—11550
WJun 4 · 12:00L. Heinzl—111199113O. Kaderabek—58111172
WMay 12 · 09:45L. Heinzl—1111113O. Kaderabek—2530
LMay 7 · 12:48L. Heinzl—11981192O. Kaderabek—711118113
L. Heinzl10
LSep 7 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.83551691M. Zelinka1.83111114113WSep 7 · 06:15P. Wasik1.531410981L. Heinzl2.38121211113LSep 7 · 05:45L. Veigl2.50111111113L. Heinzl1.50781361LSep 3 · 08:14L. Heinzl1.6781181182M. Makara2.10116113113LSep 3 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.7381380M. Stibor2.001115113LSep 3 · 06:15L. Adam2.0091111113L. Heinzl1.73113791WSep 3 · 05:45M. Makara2.201131191L. Heinzl1.6113119113WSep 2 · 08:48O. Mezera3.40111140L. Heinzl1.301313113LSep 2 · 07:15M. Kovarik2.5011911143L. Heinzl1.508119121WSep 2 · 06:45L. Heinzl1.731111113L. Adam2.008960
O. Kaderabek10
LAug 2 · 12:45O. Kaderabek2.1011127982L. Heinzl1.677101111113WAug 2 · 11:45L. Rulc1.83111050O. Kaderabek1.831312113LAug 2 · 09:15M. Makara2.25121153113O. Kaderabek1.57102111162LAug 1 · 12:25O. Kaderabek2.00116881L. Heinzl1.7371111113LAug 1 · 10:15M. Makara2.251111113O. Kaderabek1.573790LAug 1 · 09:45L. Heinzl1.531111113O. Kaderabek2.389870WJul 31 · 08:44O. Kaderabek2.1061111113L. Veigl1.67119881WJul 31 · 07:45V. Burylov1.8371060O. Kaderabek1.831112113WJul 31 · 06:45L. Dobias1.73911391O. Kaderabek2.0011511113LJul 31 · 05:15L. Veigl1.6711511113O. Kaderabek2.10911681
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