TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12348174
Played Aug 2Finished
Lukas Rulc
Home
1.83
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
11131012511––––
Ondrej Kaderabek
Away
1.83
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:14 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Rulc to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLukas Rulc above · Ondrej Kaderabek below
Set 1 · 11-13
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 5-11
Point 62 set 3, 5-11 — our read held Lukas Rulc at 54.0%
62 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Rulc 14–11 Ondrej Kaderabek Ondrej Kaderabek has won 11 of their 25 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:14What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.83 (50%)
Kaderabek
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
14-11 in 25
Rulc
Wrong
gap of 3 in 25, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Rulc 1671 vs Kaderabek 1659
Rulc
Wrong
both rated, 12 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Rulc 20% vs Kaderabek 20%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Rulc 40% vs Kaderabek 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Rulc -4 · Kaderabek +1
Rulc
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Rulc)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaderabek form (20%) is below what odds imply (55%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsRulc 1.83 / Kaderabek 1.83
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Rulc)+4.0pp
Setka Cup · #12348174
Rulc1.83
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
Kaderabek1.83
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeRulc5wins
AwayKaderabek5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeRulc66.7%4 of 6
AwayKaderabek75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Rulc6Kaderabek4n = 10Rulc took 6 of 10
S2Rulc6Kaderabek4n = 10Rulc took 6 of 10
S3Rulc4Kaderabek6n = 10Kaderabek took 6 of 10
S4Rulc0Kaderabek6n = 6Kaderabek took 6 of 6
S5Rulc3Kaderabek1n = 4Rulc took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricRulcKaderabekR − KBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.340.6−1.3per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricRulcKaderabekBasisWin rate · lifetime349 / 680 vs 207 / 40851.3%50.7%349 / 680 vs 207 / 408Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.039.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
RulcRulc 1.83/Kaderabek 1.83
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54%
Rulc · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Kaderabek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 29 · 11:15L. Rulc—1111613113O. Kaderabek—69111582
WJun 21 · 10:45L. Rulc—1111113O. Kaderabek—8250
LJun 8 · 06:45L. Rulc—12311982O. Kaderabek—1011711113
LJun 3 · 05:15L. Rulc—1191371O. Kaderabek—51115113
LMay 14 · 06:45L. Rulc—5570O. Kaderabek—1111113
LApr 7 · 08:13L. Rulc—6640O. Kaderabek—1111113
WApr 7 · 07:15L. Rulc—814194113O. Kaderabek—1112171172
LMar 16 · 11:45L. Rulc—11119111O. Kaderabek—13811133
WMar 3 · 13:23L. Rulc—1111113O. Kaderabek—7960
WMar 3 · 11:45L. Rulc—1217147113O. Kaderabek—1015161172
L. Rulc10
LSep 1 · 12:54L. Rulc1.831111810102V. Grubr1.83881112123WSep 1 · 11:45L. Rulc1.67121189123T. Liska2.101041111102WSep 1 · 10:15V. Grubr1.834116101L. Rulc1.8311511123LSep 1 · 09:45A. Radkovsky2.101111113L. Rulc1.677660LAug 31 · 12:48M. Kocvara2.631111113L. Rulc1.447870WAug 31 · 11:45L. Rulc1.6711711113M. Kocvara2.10811671LAug 31 · 10:15M. Stibor1.501161111123L. Rulc2.50131197102LAug 31 · 09:45M. Vyskocil2.75139114113L. Rulc1.40111181132LAug 29 · 13:05M. Makara1.801512113L. Rulc1.91131090WAug 29 · 12:00L. Rulc1.91118911113M. Makara1.8091111662
O. Kaderabek10
LAug 2 · 12:45O. Kaderabek2.1011127982L. Heinzl1.677101111113WAug 2 · 10:45L. Heinzl1.441061181O. Kaderabek2.6312119113LAug 2 · 09:15M. Makara2.25121153113O. Kaderabek1.57102111162LAug 1 · 12:25O. Kaderabek2.00116881L. Heinzl1.7371111113LAug 1 · 10:15M. Makara2.251111113O. Kaderabek1.573790LAug 1 · 09:45L. Heinzl1.531111113O. Kaderabek2.389870WJul 31 · 08:44O. Kaderabek2.1061111113L. Veigl1.67119881WJul 31 · 07:45V. Burylov1.8371060O. Kaderabek1.831112113WJul 31 · 06:45L. Dobias1.73911391O. Kaderabek2.0011511113LJul 31 · 05:15L. Veigl1.6711511113O. Kaderabek2.10911681
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