TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12333809
Played Jul 31Finished
Ladislav Dobias
Home
1.73
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
911115311911––
Ondrej Kaderabek
Away
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:30 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLadislav Dobias to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingLadislav Dobias above · Ondrej Kaderabek below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-5
Set 3 · 3-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 70 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Ladislav Dobias at 54.0%
70 points played in total.
H2H Ladislav Dobias 4–7 Ondrej Kaderabek Ladislav Dobias has won 4 of their 11 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:30What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Dobias
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-7 in 11
Kaderabek
Correct
gap of 3 in 11, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dobias 1739 vs Kaderabek 1654
Dobias
Wrong
both rated, 84 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dobias 40% vs Kaderabek 60%
Kaderabek
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dobias 60% vs Kaderabek 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Dobias -1 · Kaderabek -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dobias)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dobias form (40%) is below what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDobias 1.73 / Kaderabek 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Dobias)+0.5pp
Setka Cup · #12333809
Dobias1.73
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 204 of 356
Up 2–0, closes it91% 59 of 65
Up 1–0, closes it78% 138 of 178
Kaderabek2.00
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog50% won 48 of 96
Down 0–1, comes back30% 15 of 50
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 22
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDobias4wins
AwayKaderabek6wins
1 of 10 to a deciderKaderabek leads 6–4, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDobias80%4 of 5
AwayKaderabek100%5 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dobias5Kaderabek5n = 10split evenly
S2Dobias3Kaderabek7n = 10Kaderabek took 7 of 10
S3Dobias5Kaderabek5n = 10split evenly
S4Dobias5Kaderabek4n = 9Dobias took 5 of 9
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDobiasKaderabekD − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.537.0+0.5per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDobiasKaderabekBasisWin rate · lifetime362 / 655 vs 206 / 40655.3%50.7%362 / 655 vs 206 / 406Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match41.139.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DobiasDobias 1.73/Kaderabek 2.00
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.2%
Dobias · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Kaderabek won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 31 · 06:45L. Dobias—911391O. Kaderabek—11511113
LJul 30 · 15:45L. Dobias—710111182O. Kaderabek—111273113
LJun 9 · 07:45L. Dobias—911591O. Kaderabek—11311113
WMay 26 · 10:45L. Dobias—11612123O. Kaderabek—81110101
WMay 25 · 08:18L. Dobias—111011113O. Kaderabek—912961
LMay 25 · 07:15L. Dobias—5912101O. Kaderabek—111110123
LMay 21 · 10:15L. Dobias—111070O. Kaderabek—1312113
WApr 30 · 16:29L. Dobias—11811113O. Kaderabek—711731
WApr 30 · 15:30L. Dobias—11119113O. Kaderabek—761161
LApr 21 · 12:23L. Dobias—116861O. Kaderabek—61111113
L. Dobias10
LAug 28 · 08:23L. Dobias1.57117681M. Zelinka2.2591111113WAug 28 · 07:45L. Dobias1.73911913113V. Burylov2.00115111192LAug 28 · 06:15P. Wasik1.8311711113L. Dobias1.83711681LAug 28 · 05:45M. Zelinka2.1081111123L. Dobias1.671194101WAug 26 · 12:13L. Dobias1.91911712113P. Wasik1.80115111062LAug 26 · 11:45L. Heinzl2.251213113L. Dobias1.57101190WAug 26 · 10:45M. Kocvara2.5031111982L. Dobias1.50119611113WAug 26 · 09:15P. Wasik1.808880L. Dobias1.911111113WAug 25 · 08:53M. Zelinka2.1061111532L. Dobias1.67113811113LAug 25 · 07:45L. Dobias1.61111091152M. Zelinka2.20912113113
O. Kaderabek10
LAug 2 · 12:45O. Kaderabek2.1011127982L. Heinzl1.677101111113WAug 2 · 11:45L. Rulc1.83111050O. Kaderabek1.831312113WAug 2 · 10:45L. Heinzl1.441061181O. Kaderabek2.6312119113LAug 2 · 09:15M. Makara2.25121153113O. Kaderabek1.57102111162LAug 1 · 12:25O. Kaderabek2.00116881L. Heinzl1.7371111113LAug 1 · 10:15M. Makara2.251111113O. Kaderabek1.573790LAug 1 · 09:45L. Heinzl1.531111113O. Kaderabek2.389870WJul 31 · 08:44O. Kaderabek2.1061111113L. Veigl1.67119881WJul 31 · 07:45V. Burylov1.8371060O. Kaderabek1.831112113LJul 31 · 05:15L. Veigl1.6711511113O. Kaderabek2.10911681
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