TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12333652
Played Jul 31Finished
Lukas Veigl
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119511116118––
Ondrej Kaderabek
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:26 and never touched — 58.8% is still 58.8%
Graded at full timeLukas Veigl to win
58.8%
58.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Veigl above · Ondrej Kaderabek below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 72 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Lukas Veigl at 58.8%
72 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Veigl 8–4 Ondrej Kaderabek Ondrej Kaderabek has won 4 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 21:26What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Veigl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-4 in 12
Veigl
Correct
gap of 4 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Veigl 1689 vs Kaderabek 1703
Kaderabek
Wrong
both rated, 15 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Veigl 60% vs Kaderabek 80%
Kaderabek
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Veigl 50% vs Kaderabek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Veigl +2 · Kaderabek +3
Kaderabek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Veigl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaderabek form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsVeigl 1.67 / Kaderabek 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Veigl)+3.0pp
Setka Cup · #12333652
Veigl1.67
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 79 of 136
Up 2–0, closes it92% 24 of 26
Up 1–0, closes it71% 47 of 66
Kaderabek2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog50% won 45 of 90
Down 0–1, comes back30% 14 of 47
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 21
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeVeigl6wins
AwayKaderabek4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVeigl leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeVeigl75%6 of 8
AwayKaderabekn = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Veigl8Kaderabek2n = 10Veigl took 8 of 10
S2Veigl5Kaderabek5n = 10split evenly
S3Veigl7Kaderabek3n = 10Veigl took 7 of 10
S4Veigl4Kaderabek3n = 7Veigl took 4 of 7
S5Veigl1Kaderabek3n = 4Kaderabek took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home330%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricVeiglKaderabekV − KBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match41.636.6+5.0per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricVeiglKaderabekBasisWin rate · lifetime293 / 575 vs 203 / 39951%50.9%293 / 575 vs 203 / 399Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.540.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VeiglVeigl 1.67/Kaderabek 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
58.8%
Veigl · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Veigl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LMay 13 · 15:15L. Veigl—11916882O. Kaderabek—7111411113
LJan 26 · 15:15L. Veigl—11111011102O. Kaderabek—134128123
WDec 3 · 14:45L. Veigl—1111123O. Kaderabek—67100
WOct 2 · 05:45L. Veigl—11118113O. Kaderabek—671191
WOct 1 · 20:23L. Veigl—11911133O. Kaderabek—5119111
WOct 1 · 18:15L. Veigl—1111113O. Kaderabek—4670
LSep 25 · 07:15L. Veigl—481181O. Kaderabek—11115113
WAug 16 · 06:15L. Veigl—11101110123O. Kaderabek—312812102
WAug 14 · 08:21L. Veigl—1111113O. Kaderabek—9690
LAug 14 · 07:15L. Veigl—11371192O. Kaderabek—811116113
L. Veigl10
LSep 7 · 08:18L. Veigl2.758670P. Wasik1.401111113LSep 7 · 07:15P. Wasik1.611211113L. Veigl2.2010850WSep 7 · 06:45L. Veigl2.3811611113M. Zelinka1.53911951WSep 7 · 05:45L. Veigl2.50111111113L. Heinzl1.50781361WSep 5 · 20:13J. Senk2.10411491L. Veigl1.6711711113LSep 5 · 19:15L. Veigl1.53114115142O. Mezera2.38611511153WSep 5 · 18:15L. Veigl1.801111113J. Senk1.917890LSep 5 · 17:15L. Veigl2.25911691J. Sr1.5711511113WSep 5 · 09:00L. Veigl2.2012611113M. Zelinka1.611011971WSep 5 · 07:45L. Veigl2.10311811113J. Chalupa1.6711911982
O. Kaderabek10
LAug 2 · 12:45O. Kaderabek2.1011127982L. Heinzl1.677101111113WAug 2 · 11:45L. Rulc1.83111050O. Kaderabek1.831312113WAug 2 · 10:45L. Heinzl1.441061181O. Kaderabek2.6312119113LAug 2 · 09:15M. Makara2.25121153113O. Kaderabek1.57102111162LAug 1 · 12:25O. Kaderabek2.00116881L. Heinzl1.7371111113LAug 1 · 10:15M. Makara2.251111113O. Kaderabek1.573790LAug 1 · 09:45L. Heinzl1.531111113O. Kaderabek2.389870WJul 31 · 08:44O. Kaderabek2.1061111113L. Veigl1.67119881WJul 31 · 07:45V. Burylov1.8371060O. Kaderabek1.831112113WJul 31 · 06:45L. Dobias1.73911391O. Kaderabek2.0011511113
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