TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #12347930
Played Aug 2Finished
Michal Makara
Home
2.25
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1210112511311116
Ondrej Kaderabek
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:03 and never touched — 59.9% is still 59.9%
Graded at full timeOndrej Kaderabek to win
59.9%
59.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongno pick shipped
How it is goingMichal Makara above · Ondrej Kaderabek below
Set 1 · 12-10
Set 2 · 11-2
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 3-11
Set 5 · 11-6
Point 82 set 5, 11-6 — our read held Ondrej Kaderabek at 59.9%
82 points played in total.
H2H Michal Makara 28–31 Ondrej Kaderabek Michal Makara has won 28 of their 59 meetings.
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 20:03What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Kaderabek
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
28-31 in 59
Kaderabek
Wrong
gap of 3 in 59, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Makara 1720 vs Kaderabek 1654
Makara
Correct
both rated, 65 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Makara 60% vs Kaderabek 40%
Makara
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Makara 70% vs Kaderabek 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Makara -1 · Kaderabek -3
Kaderabek
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Kaderabek)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Kaderabek form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMakara 2.25 / Kaderabek 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Kaderabek)+1.0pp
Setka Cup · #12347930
Makara2.25
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog48% won 184 of 384
Down 0–1, comes back28% 55 of 197
Down 0–2, comes back7% 6 of 90
Kaderabek1.57
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite57% won 48 of 84
Up 2–0, closes it92% 22 of 24
Up 1–0, closes it75% 30 of 40
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMakara4wins
AwayKaderabek6wins
3 of 10 to a deciderKaderabek leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMakara66.7%2 of 3
AwayKaderabek71.4%5 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Makara3Kaderabek7n = 10Kaderabek took 7 of 10
S2Makara4Kaderabek6n = 10Kaderabek took 6 of 10
S3Makara8Kaderabek2n = 10Makara took 8 of 10
S4Makara3Kaderabek4n = 7Kaderabek took 4 of 7
S5Makara1Kaderabek2n = 3Kaderabek took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMakaraKaderabekM − KBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match36.338.6−2.3per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMakaraKaderabekBasisWin rate · lifetime464 / 951 vs 206 / 40648.8%50.7%464 / 951 vs 206 / 406Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.439.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
KaderabekMakara 2.25/Kaderabek 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
59.9%
Kaderabek · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Makara won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WAug 1 · 10:15M. Makara—1111113O. Kaderabek—3790
LJun 21 · 12:19M. Makara—12611392O. Kaderabek—1011711113
WJun 21 · 09:15M. Makara—8101311113O. Kaderabek—111211372
LJun 15 · 08:48M. Makara—712781O. Kaderabek—111011113
WJun 15 · 07:45M. Makara—91111123O. Kaderabek—1188101
LJun 13 · 12:00M. Makara—541171O. Kaderabek—11119113
LJun 6 · 12:45M. Makara—10880O. Kaderabek—1211113
LJun 6 · 09:45M. Makara—67111182O. Kaderabek—111178113
WMay 26 · 12:13M. Makara—1211123O. Kaderabek—106100
LMay 26 · 09:45M. Makara—271271O. Kaderabek—111110113
M. Makara10
WSep 4 · 12:29M. Makara2.101211113V. Burylov1.6710940LSep 4 · 12:00M. Makara2.006650L. Adam1.731111113LSep 4 · 10:30V. Burylov1.611171114113M. Makara2.2061171692LSep 4 · 10:00M. Kocvara1.731113123M. Makara2.00611100WSep 3 · 08:14L. Heinzl1.6781181182M. Makara2.10116113113LSep 3 · 07:15L. Adam1.731151211113M. Makara2.0091114772LSep 3 · 06:45M. Makara2.6311970M. Stibor1.441311113LSep 3 · 05:45M. Makara2.201131191L. Heinzl1.6113119113LSep 1 · 08:21M. Makara2.7551211472M. Kocvara1.401110911113WSep 1 · 07:15M. Kocvara1.6711891172M. Makara2.10911118113
O. Kaderabek10
LAug 2 · 12:45O. Kaderabek2.1011127982L. Heinzl1.677101111113WAug 2 · 11:45L. Rulc1.83111050O. Kaderabek1.831312113WAug 2 · 10:45L. Heinzl1.441061181O. Kaderabek2.6312119113LAug 1 · 12:25O. Kaderabek2.00116881L. Heinzl1.7371111113LAug 1 · 10:15M. Makara2.251111113O. Kaderabek1.573790LAug 1 · 09:45L. Heinzl1.531111113O. Kaderabek2.389870WJul 31 · 08:44O. Kaderabek2.1061111113L. Veigl1.67119881WJul 31 · 07:45V. Burylov1.8371060O. Kaderabek1.831112113WJul 31 · 06:45L. Dobias1.73911391O. Kaderabek2.0011511113LJul 31 · 05:15L. Veigl1.6711511113O. Kaderabek2.10911681
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