TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13122545
Played Sep 13Finished
Josef Chalupa
Home
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
611116511118118
David Gasparovic
Away
1.91
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 23:42 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJosef Chalupa to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingJosef Chalupa above · David Gasparovic below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 11-8
Set 5 · 11-8
Point 88 set 5, 11-8 — our read held Josef Chalupa at 54.0%
88 points played in total.
H2H Josef Chalupa 3–1 David Gasparovic David Gasparovic has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 23:42What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Chalupa
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-1 in 4
Chalupa
Correct
gap of 2 in 4, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chalupa 1774 vs Gasparovic 1713
Chalupa
Correct
both rated, 60 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chalupa 60% vs Gasparovic 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chalupa 40% vs Gasparovic 60%
Gasparovic
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Chalupa +1 · Gasparovic +3
Gasparovic
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Chalupa)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChalupa 1.80 / Gasparovic 1.91
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Chalupa)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13122545
Chalupa1.80
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite58% won 48 of 83
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it73% 29 of 40
Gasparovic1.91
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog64% won 7 of 11
Down 0–1, comes back40% 2 of 5
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeChalupa3wins
AwayGasparovic1wins
1 of 4 to a deciderChalupa leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChalupa66.7%2 of 3
AwayGasparovicn = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chalupa3Gasparovic1n = 4Chalupa took 3 of 4
S2Chalupa2Gasparovic2n = 4split evenly
S3Chalupa1Gasparovic3n = 4Gasparovic took 3 of 4
S4Chalupa3Gasparovic1n = 4Chalupa took 3 of 4
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home250%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away125%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricChalupaGasparovicC − GBasisWins31+2in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match41.039.2+1.8per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChalupaGasparovicBasisWin rate · lifetime204 / 368 vs 106 / 17755.4%59.9%204 / 368 vs 106 / 177Avg sets wonper match2.22.3per matchAvg pointsper match40.140.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupaChalupa 1.80/Gasparovic 1.91
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54%
Chalupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Chalupa won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 6 · 13:45J. Chalupa33116791D. Gasparovic4181111113
WSep 5 · 08:29J. Chalupa48121211133D. Gasparovic44101013111
WSep 5 · 06:45J. Chalupa4011711113D. Gasparovic27911521
WMay 29 · 19:30J. Chalupa43511511113D. Gasparovic4511911682
J. Chalupa10
WSep 6 · 16:29J. Chalupa1.4411812113S. Rejent2.638111071LSep 6 · 15:45J. Chalupa1.80111011992V. Burylov1.91812911113WSep 6 · 14:15S. Rejent2.634130J. Chalupa1.441111113LSep 6 · 13:45D. Gasparovic2.1081111113J. Chalupa1.67116791WSep 5 · 08:29J. Chalupa1.61121211133D. Gasparovic2.20101013111LSep 5 · 07:45L. Veigl2.10311811113J. Chalupa1.6711911982WSep 5 · 06:45D. Gasparovic2.20911521J. Chalupa1.6111711113LSep 5 · 05:15M. Zelinka1.83611911113J. Chalupa1.8311811992LAug 23 · 13:05J. Chalupa1.831271291L. Heinzl1.83101114113LAug 23 · 12:00L. Heinzl1.8311712133J. Chalupa1.8341110111
D. Gasparovic10
WSep 13 · 06:15O. Kaderabek1.918580D. Gasparovic1.801111113WSep 12 · 20:45M. Makara1.8341010D. Gasparovic1.831112113WSep 12 · 19:15D. Gasparovic1.83111012113J. Sr1.838121061WSep 12 · 18:15D. Gasparovic2.2011115113Z. Sedivy1.61751151LSep 12 · 17:15D. Gasparovic1.446890M. Makara2.631111113LSep 11 · 16:54L. Adam2.2071111123D. Gasparovic1.611188101WSep 11 · 15:15A. Snr2.758115131D. Gasparovic1.4011711153WSep 6 · 13:45D. Gasparovic2.1081111113J. Chalupa1.67116791LSep 5 · 08:29J. Chalupa1.61121211133D. Gasparovic2.20101013111LSep 5 · 06:45D. Gasparovic2.20911521J. Chalupa1.6111711113
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