TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116017
Played Sep 11Finished
Lukas Adam
Home
2.20
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
7111181181210––
David Gasparovic
Away
1.62
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
How it is goingLukas Adam above · David Gasparovic below
Set 1 · 7-11
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 12-10
Point 78 set 4, 12-10
78 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Adam 1–3 David Gasparovic Lukas Adam has won 1 of their 4 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Adam beat Gasparovic 3-2.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 58% — Slight lean (leans Gasparovic)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adam form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdam 2.20 / Gasparovic 1.61
Signal prob.42% / 58%
Edge (Gasparovic)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13116017
Adam2.20
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog43% won 55 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back23% 14 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 26
Gasparovic1.61
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite58% won 51 of 88
Up 2–0, closes it87% 20 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it76% 34 of 45
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeAdam1wins
AwayGasparovic3wins
1 of 4 to a deciderGasparovic leads 3–1, and 1 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adam2Gasparovic2n = 4split evenly
S2Adam1Gasparovic3n = 4Gasparovic took 3 of 4
S3Adam1Gasparovic3n = 4Gasparovic took 3 of 4
S4Adam0Gasparovic3n = 3Gasparovic took 3 of 3
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home125%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away250%
0–3Straight, away125%
These 4 meetings
MetricAdamGasparovicA − GBasisWins13−2in 4 meetingsFirst set220of 4Avg pointsper match34.041.2−7.2per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamGasparovicBasisWin rate · lifetime286 / 554 vs 103 / 17251.6%59.9%286 / 554 vs 103 / 172Avg sets wonper match2.12.3per matchAvg pointsper match40.040.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GasparovicAdam 2.20/Gasparovic 1.61
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
57.7%
Gasparovic · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Adam won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
WSep 11 · 13:45L. Adam—411113113D. Gasparovic—11981152
LJun 19 · 14:30L. Adam—6690D. Gasparovic—1111113
LMay 23 · 18:15L. Adam—119971D. Gasparovic—91111113
LMay 22 · 19:15L. Adam—11126101D. Gasparovic—91411123
L. Adam10
LSep 11 · 15:45L. Adam1.67911912102M. Makara2.101171110123WSep 11 · 14:15A. Snr2.108860L. Adam1.671111113WSep 11 · 13:45D. Gasparovic1.4011981152L. Adam2.75411113113LSep 11 · 08:43L. Adam2.107750M. Stibor1.671111113WSep 11 · 07:45L. Dobias1.737990L. Adam2.001111113WSep 11 · 06:45L. Svoboda1.9161311562L. Adam1.801111811113LSep 11 · 05:15M. Stibor1.6711811113L. Adam2.10911971WSep 7 · 12:23M. Vyskocil2.6311681182L. Adam1.44811117113LSep 7 · 11:15A. Radkovsky2.00145611143L. Adam1.731211118122LSep 7 · 10:45L. Adam1.501061161R. Pisa2.5012119113
D. Gasparovic10
WSep 11 · 15:15A. Snr2.758115131D. Gasparovic1.4011711153WSep 11 · 14:45D. Gasparovic1.44111211113M. Makara2.63614451LSep 11 · 13:45D. Gasparovic1.4011981152L. Adam2.75411113113LSep 6 · 17:00V. Burylov1.831111113D. Gasparovic1.838860WSep 6 · 15:15S. Rejent2.63511951D. Gasparovic1.4411611113LSep 6 · 14:45D. Gasparovic1.73136128112V. Burylov2.0011111011133WSep 6 · 13:45D. Gasparovic2.1081111113J. Chalupa1.67116791LSep 5 · 08:29J. Chalupa1.61121211133D. Gasparovic2.20101013111LSep 5 · 07:15M. Zelinka2.001171312123D. Gasparovic1.739111114102LSep 5 · 06:45D. Gasparovic2.20911521J. Chalupa1.6111711113
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