TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111167
Played Sep 11Finished
Michal Stibor
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
119811119117––
Lukas Adam
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:28 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeMichal Stibor to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Stibor above · Lukas Adam below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 77 set 4, 11-7 — our read held Michal Stibor at 55.8%
77 points played in total.
H2H Michal Stibor 25–22 Lukas Adam Lukas Adam has won 22 of their 47 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:28What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Stibor
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-22 in 47
Stibor
Correct
gap of 3 in 47, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stibor 1778 vs Adam 1741
Stibor
Correct
both rated, 37 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stibor 60% vs Adam 40%
Stibor
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stibor 60% vs Adam 60%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Stibor -1 · Adam +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Stibor)
Decision Summary
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStibor 1.67 / Adam 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Stibor)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13111167
Stibor1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite62% won 70 of 113
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it83% 44 of 53
Adam2.10
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog43% won 55 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back23% 14 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStibor5wins
AwayAdam5wins
6 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStibor75%3 of 4
AwayAdam66.7%4 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stibor4Adam6n = 10Adam took 6 of 10
S2Stibor4Adam6n = 10Adam took 6 of 10
S3Stibor7Adam3n = 10Stibor took 7 of 10
S4Stibor5Adam5n = 10split evenly
S5Stibor3Adam3n = 6split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricStiborAdamS − ABasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match42.040.9+1.1per matchSweeps0003–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStiborAdamBasisWin rate · lifetime172 / 324 vs 285 / 55553.1%51.4%172 / 324 vs 285 / 555Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.440.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
StiborStibor 1.67/Adam 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
55.8%
Stibor · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Stibor won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 3 · 08:44M. Stibor—681491L. Adam—111112113
WSep 3 · 05:15M. Stibor—117511113L. Adam—21111562
LAug 26 · 05:45M. Stibor—711981L. Adam—11711113
WAug 20 · 07:45M. Stibor—11611113L. Adam—711781
LAug 19 · 09:45M. Stibor—11711892L. Adam—511411113
WJul 28 · 11:45M. Stibor—1411105113L. Adam—126121182
LJul 21 · 06:15M. Stibor—141111322L. Adam—166411113
LJul 14 · 06:30M. Stibor—39111162L. Adam—111166113
WJun 18 · 08:43M. Stibor—861111123L. Adam—111166102
WJun 18 · 07:45M. Stibor—51111113L. Adam—116561
M. Stibor10
LSep 9 · 12:48M. Zelinka1.6781111113M. Stibor2.10116671WSep 9 · 11:15L. Svoboda1.80114471M. Stibor1.9161111113WSep 9 · 10:45M. Stibor2.2011811113L. Dobias1.61311691WSep 9 · 09:45M. Stibor2.2011811133M. Zelinka1.617111111LSep 3 · 08:44M. Stibor1.67681491L. Adam2.10111112113WSep 3 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.7381380M. Stibor2.001115113WSep 3 · 06:45M. Makara2.6311970M. Stibor1.441311113WSep 3 · 05:15L. Adam2.1021111562M. Stibor1.67117511113LAug 31 · 12:18M. Vyskocil1.67441111133M. Stibor2.10111199112LAug 31 · 11:15M. Stibor1.738770M. Vyskocil2.001111113
L. Adam10
WSep 7 · 12:23M. Vyskocil2.6311681182L. Adam1.44811117113LSep 7 · 11:15A. Radkovsky2.00145611143L. Adam1.731211118122LSep 7 · 10:45L. Adam1.501061161R. Pisa2.5012119113WSep 7 · 09:45L. Adam1.671113113M. Vyskocil2.1061180LSep 6 · 12:54J. Sr1.611311113L. Adam2.2011760WSep 6 · 11:15O. Mezera2.20811771L. Adam1.6111511113WSep 6 · 10:45L. Adam1.801111113M. Kocvara1.919480LSep 6 · 09:45L. Adam2.104760J. Sr1.671111113WSep 3 · 08:44M. Stibor1.67681491L. Adam2.10111112113LSep 3 · 05:15L. Adam2.1021111562M. Stibor1.67117511113
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