TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13104102
Played Sep 9Finished
Matus Zelinka
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
811116116117––
Michal Stibor
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
How it is goingMatus Zelinka above · Michal Stibor below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-6
Set 3 · 11-6
Set 4 · 11-7
Point 71 set 4, 11-7
71 points played in total.
H2H Matus Zelinka 7–3 Michal Stibor Michal Stibor has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Stibor beat Zelinka 3-1.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Zelinka)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Stibor form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsZelinka 1.67 / Stibor 2.10
Signal prob.55% / 45%
Edge (Zelinka)-1.2pp (anti-value)
Setka Cup · #13104102
Zelinka1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite53% won 69 of 130
Up 2–0, closes it87% 26 of 30
Up 1–0, closes it77% 46 of 60
Stibor2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog40% won 24 of 60
Down 0–1, comes back26% 10 of 38
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeZelinka7wins
AwayStibor3wins
2 of 10 to a deciderZelinka leads 7–3, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeZelinka100%6 of 6
AwayStibor75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Zelinka6Stibor4n = 10Zelinka took 6 of 10
S2Zelinka7Stibor3n = 10Zelinka took 7 of 10
S3Zelinka5Stibor5n = 10split evenly
S4Zelinka6Stibor2n = 8Zelinka took 6 of 8
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricZelinkaStiborZ − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match42.037.8+4.2per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricZelinkaStiborBasisWin rate · lifetime203 / 387 vs 174 / 32552.5%53.5%203 / 387 vs 174 / 325Avg sets wonper match2.12.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.839.5per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZelinkaZelinka 1.67/Stibor 2.10
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.6%
Zelinka · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Zelinka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 09:45M. Zelinka—7111111M. Stibor—11811133
WAug 25 · 05:15M. Zelinka—1211123M. Stibor—109100
WAug 8 · 10:15M. Zelinka—11911193M. Stibor—7112171
WJul 28 · 09:45M. Zelinka—11811133M. Stibor—4114111
WMay 11 · 12:18M. Zelinka—131111113M. Stibor—1191341
LMay 11 · 11:15M. Zelinka—5111511112M. Stibor—118178133
WMay 6 · 10:15M. Zelinka—101211113M. Stibor—1210751
LApr 29 · 11:45M. Zelinka—8111291M. Stibor—11414113
WApr 27 · 12:00M. Zelinka—115811113M. Stibor—91111982
WJan 20 · 09:00M. Zelinka—1111113M. Stibor—6890
M. Zelinka10
WSep 9 · 11:45M. Zelinka2.101111113L. Dobias1.678970WSep 9 · 10:15L. Svoboda2.25107111182M. Zelinka1.57121196113LSep 9 · 09:45M. Stibor2.2011811133M. Zelinka1.617111111WSep 8 · 08:18L. Dobias1.73971181M. Zelinka2.0011117113LSep 8 · 07:15M. Zelinka2.10711912102L. Dobias1.671161110123LSep 8 · 06:15M. Zelinka1.835980L. Heinzl1.831111113WSep 8 · 05:15M. Zelinka1.531111113V. Grubr2.387970WSep 7 · 08:49M. Zelinka1.8311812113L. Heinzl1.839111091WSep 7 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.83551691M. Zelinka1.83111114113LSep 7 · 06:45L. Veigl2.3811611113M. Zelinka1.53911951
M. Stibor10
WSep 9 · 11:15L. Svoboda1.80114471M. Stibor1.9161111113WSep 9 · 10:45M. Stibor2.2011811113L. Dobias1.61311691WSep 9 · 09:45M. Stibor2.2011811133M. Zelinka1.617111111LSep 3 · 08:44M. Stibor1.67681491L. Adam2.10111112113WSep 3 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.7381380M. Stibor2.001115113WSep 3 · 06:45M. Makara2.6311970M. Stibor1.441311113WSep 3 · 05:15L. Adam2.1021111562M. Stibor1.67117511113LAug 31 · 12:18M. Vyskocil1.67441111133M. Stibor2.10111199112LAug 31 · 11:15M. Stibor1.738770M. Vyskocil2.001111113WAug 31 · 10:15M. Stibor1.501161111123L. Rulc2.50131197102
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