TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111442
Played Sep 11Finished
Lukas Adam
Home
1.67
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
91111791112101012
Michal Makara
Away
2.10
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:43 and never touched — 59.0% is still 59.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Adam to win
59.0%
59.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Adam above · Michal Makara below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 12-10
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 102 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Lukas Adam at 59.0%
102 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Adam 25–16 Michal Makara Michal Makara has won 16 of their 41 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 20:43What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Adam
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
25-16 in 41
Adam
Wrong
gap of 9 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Adam 1757 vs Makara 1606
Adam
Wrong
both rated, 151 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Adam 80% vs Makara 20%
Adam
Wrong
60pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Adam 60% vs Makara 30%
Adam
Wrong
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Adam +2 · Makara -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Adam)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Makara form (20%) is below what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsAdam 1.67 / Makara 2.10
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Adam)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13111442
Adam1.67
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 67 of 113
Up 2–0, closes it100% 28 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it89% 47 of 53
Makara2.10
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 172 of 376
Down 0–1, comes back25% 48 of 192
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 88
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeAdam7wins
AwayMakara3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderAdam leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeAdam100%7 of 7
AwayMakara100%3 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Adam7Makara3n = 10Adam took 7 of 10
S2Adam6Makara4n = 10Adam took 6 of 10
S3Adam4Makara6n = 10Makara took 6 of 10
S4Adam4Makara4n = 8split evenly
S5Adam3Makara1n = 4Adam took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricAdamMakaraA − MBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match42.339.9+2.4per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricAdamMakaraBasisWin rate · lifetime286 / 553 vs 495 / 103951.7%47.6%286 / 553 vs 495 / 1039Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.939.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamAdam 1.67/Makara 2.10
Miss
What we said
59%
Adam · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Makara won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 4 · 12:00L. Adam—1111113M. Makara—6650
WSep 3 · 07:15L. Adam—1151211113M. Makara—91114772
LAug 28 · 05:30L. Adam—51111892M. Makara—119311113
LAug 19 · 12:43L. Adam—1061131M. Makara—12119113
WAug 19 · 11:45L. Adam—111110113M. Makara—371281
WJun 24 · 06:30L. Adam—11131115113M. Makara—91591792
WJun 19 · 14:00L. Adam—11136163M. Makara—51111141
WJun 12 · 09:45L. Adam—13117113M. Makara—1151161
WJun 3 · 08:00L. Adam—111396113M. Makara—411111192
LMay 27 · 07:45L. Adam—13290M. Makara—1511113
L. Adam10
WSep 11 · 14:15A. Snr2.108860L. Adam1.671111113WSep 11 · 13:45D. Gasparovic1.4011981152L. Adam2.75411113113LSep 11 · 08:43L. Adam2.107750M. Stibor1.671111113WSep 11 · 07:45L. Dobias1.737990L. Adam2.001111113WSep 11 · 06:45L. Svoboda1.9161311562L. Adam1.801111811113LSep 11 · 05:15M. Stibor1.6711811113L. Adam2.10911971WSep 7 · 12:23M. Vyskocil2.6311681182L. Adam1.44811117113LSep 7 · 11:15A. Radkovsky2.00145611143L. Adam1.731211118122LSep 7 · 10:45L. Adam1.501061161R. Pisa2.5012119113WSep 7 · 09:45L. Adam1.671113113M. Vyskocil2.1061180
M. Makara10
WSep 11 · 16:24M. Makara2.25111199113A. Snr1.5768111172LSep 11 · 14:45D. Gasparovic1.44111211113M. Makara2.63614451LSep 11 · 13:15A. Snr1.671111113M. Makara2.105850WSep 8 · 12:29M. Makara1.91111185123R. Pisa1.80891111102LSep 8 · 11:30R. Pisa1.67111111123M. Makara2.107713101LSep 8 · 11:00M. Makara1.91138991L. Veigl1.80111111113LSep 8 · 10:00M. Makara1.6761170T. Liska2.101113113LSep 7 · 16:48M. Makara1.83119111182M. Myler1.83711132113WSep 7 · 15:45S. Rejent1.6711911892M. Makara2.10911611113LSep 7 · 14:45M. Myler2.10111110113M. Makara1.67681291
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