TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13115930
Played Sep 11Finished
Michal Makara
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
116118911911117
Ales Brandtl Snr
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
How it is goingMichal Makara above · Ales Brandtl Snr below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-8
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-7
Point 94 set 5, 11-7
94 points played in total.
H2H Michal Makara 1–2 Ales Brandtl Snr Michal Makara has won 1 of their 3 meetings.
Same-day rematch · 3h before this match
Snr beat Makara 3-0.
Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Snr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Snr form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMakara 2.25 / Snr 1.57
Signal prob.41% / 59%
Edge (Snr)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13115930
Makara2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 172 of 376
Down 0–1, comes back25% 48 of 192
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 88
Snr1.57
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite32% won 6 of 19
Up 2–0, closes it67% 4 of 6
Up 1–0, closes it43% 6 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeMakara1wins
AwaySnr2wins
1 of 3 to a deciderSnr leads 2–1, and 1 of those 3 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMakaran = 0, below the 3 needed
AwaySnr66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Makara0Snr3n = 3Snr took 3 of 3
S2Makara1Snr2n = 3Snr took 2 of 3
S3Makara1Snr2n = 3Snr took 2 of 3
S4
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home133%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away267%
These 3 meetings
MetricMakaraSnrM − SBasisWins12−1in 3 meetingsFirst set03−3of 3Avg pointsper match31.339.7−8.4per matchSweeps02−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMakaraSnrBasisWin rate · lifetime496 / 1039 vs 11 / 3447.7%32.4%496 / 1039 vs 11 / 34Avg sets wonper match2.01.8per matchAvg pointsper match39.237.9per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SnrMakara 2.25/Snr 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Snr · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Makara won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
LSep 11 · 13:15M. Makara—5850A. Snr—1111113
LJun 9 · 20:18M. Makara—49110A. Snr—1111133
WJun 9 · 18:45M. Makara—717116113A. Snr—111561182
M. Makara10
WSep 11 · 15:45L. Adam1.67911912102M. Makara2.101171110123LSep 11 · 14:45D. Gasparovic1.44111211113M. Makara2.63614451LSep 11 · 13:15A. Snr1.671111113M. Makara2.105850WSep 8 · 12:29M. Makara1.91111185123R. Pisa1.80891111102LSep 8 · 11:30R. Pisa1.67111111123M. Makara2.107713101LSep 8 · 11:00M. Makara1.91138991L. Veigl1.80111111113LSep 8 · 10:00M. Makara1.6761170T. Liska2.101113113LSep 7 · 16:48M. Makara1.83119111182M. Myler1.83711132113WSep 7 · 15:45S. Rejent1.6711911892M. Makara2.10911611113LSep 7 · 14:45M. Myler2.10111110113M. Makara1.67681291
A. Snr10
LSep 11 · 15:15A. Snr2.758115131D. Gasparovic1.4011711153LSep 11 · 14:15A. Snr2.108860L. Adam1.671111113WSep 11 · 13:15A. Snr1.671111113M. Makara2.105850LSep 4 · 20:23V. Burylov1.7311911113A. Snr2.00611891LSep 4 · 19:15A. Snr2.50751191D. Gasparovic1.5011117113LSep 4 · 18:15A. Snr1.8361151152J. Sr1.83117117113WSep 3 · 20:14R. Pisa2.008250A. Snr1.731111113WSep 3 · 19:15M. Vyskocil1.83691111102A. Snr1.83111188123LSep 3 · 18:45A. Snr1.571011731R. Pisa2.2512611113LSep 3 · 17:45A. Snr1.83119561T. Liska1.8371111113
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