TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094612
Played Sep 8Finished
Michal Makara
Home
1.91
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1311811911911––
Lukas Veigl
Away
1.80
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:40 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Veigl to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Makara above · Lukas Veigl below
Set 1 · 13-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Set 4 · 9-11
Point 83 set 4, 9-11 — our read held Lukas Veigl at 54.0%
83 points played in total.
H2H Michal Makara 27–29 Lukas Veigl Michal Makara has won 27 of their 56 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:40What took a side5 for · 0 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Veigl
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
27-29 in 56
Veigl
Correct
gap of 2 in 56, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Makara 1646 vs Veigl 1693
Veigl
Correct
both rated, 46 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Makara 40% vs Veigl 60%
Veigl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Makara 40% vs Veigl 60%
Veigl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Makara -2 · Veigl +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Veigl)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Makara form (40%) is below what odds imply (52%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMakara 1.91 / Veigl 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Veigl)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13094612
Makara1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 175 of 380
Down 0–1, comes back25% 49 of 194
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 88
Veigl1.80
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite61% won 61 of 100
Up 2–0, closes it95% 20 of 21
Up 1–0, closes it73% 40 of 55
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMakara4wins
AwayVeigl6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderVeigl leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMakara60%3 of 5
AwayVeigl80%4 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Makara5Veigl5n = 10split evenly
S2Makara4Veigl6n = 10Veigl took 6 of 10
S3Makara5Veigl5n = 10split evenly
S4Makara2Veigl5n = 7Veigl took 5 of 7
S5Makara2Veigl2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricMakaraVeiglM − VBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match37.039.8−2.8per matchSweeps12−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMakaraVeiglBasisWin rate · lifetime499 / 1040 vs 274 / 52848%51.9%499 / 1040 vs 274 / 528Avg sets wonper match2.02.1per matchAvg pointsper match39.340.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
VeiglMakara 1.91/Veigl 1.80
Miss
What we said
54%
Veigl · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Veigl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 30 · 08:49M. Makara—79111142L. Veigl—111188113
WJul 30 · 05:15M. Makara—111388123L. Veigl—6111111102
LJul 29 · 07:00M. Makara—1294101L. Veigl—101111123
LJun 14 · 16:34M. Makara—7860L. Veigl—1111113
LJun 14 · 14:30M. Makara—111011632L. Veigl—712811113
WMay 10 · 17:45M. Makara—1111113L. Veigl—7650
LMay 10 · 12:50M. Makara—7570L. Veigl—1111113
WMay 10 · 11:45M. Makara—111111113L. Veigl—139851
WMay 9 · 09:30M. Makara—1111810113L. Veigl—97111252
LMay 4 · 08:23M. Makara—461391L. Veigl—111111113
M. Makara10
LSep 8 · 11:30R. Pisa1.67111111123M. Makara2.107713101LSep 8 · 10:00M. Makara1.6761170T. Liska2.101113113LSep 7 · 16:48M. Makara1.83119111182M. Myler1.83711132113WSep 7 · 15:45S. Rejent1.6711911892M. Makara2.10911611113LSep 7 · 14:45M. Myler2.10111110113M. Makara1.67681291WSep 7 · 13:15O. Mezera2.38811611102M. Makara1.53114115123WSep 4 · 12:29M. Makara2.101211113V. Burylov1.6710940LSep 4 · 12:00M. Makara2.006650L. Adam1.731111113LSep 4 · 10:30V. Burylov1.611171114113M. Makara2.2061171692LSep 4 · 10:00M. Kocvara1.731113123M. Makara2.00611100
L. Veigl10
WSep 8 · 12:00T. Liska2.101015771L. Veigl1.67121311113WSep 8 · 09:30R. Pisa2.2081111932L. Veigl1.61117311113LSep 7 · 08:18L. Veigl2.758670P. Wasik1.401111113LSep 7 · 07:15P. Wasik1.611211113L. Veigl2.2010850WSep 7 · 06:45L. Veigl2.3811611113M. Zelinka1.53911951WSep 7 · 05:45L. Veigl2.50111111113L. Heinzl1.50781361WSep 5 · 20:13J. Senk2.10411491L. Veigl1.6711711113LSep 5 · 19:15L. Veigl1.53114115142O. Mezera2.38611511153WSep 5 · 18:15L. Veigl1.801111113J. Senk1.917890LSep 5 · 17:15L. Veigl2.25911691J. Sr1.5711511113
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