TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13088636
Played Sep 7Finished
Ondrej Mezera
Home
2.38
At publish
Lost last 5Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 5
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
8111146111151012
Michal Makara
Away
1.53
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 17:53 and never touched — 62.8% is still 62.8%
Graded at full timeMichal Makara to win
62.8%
62.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightno pick shipped
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingOndrej Mezera above · Michal Makara below
Set 1 · 8-11
Set 2 · 11-4
Set 3 · 6-11
Set 4 · 11-5
Set 5 · 10-12
Point 89 set 5, 10-12 — our read held Michal Makara at 62.8%
89 points played in total.
H2H Ondrej Mezera 12–29 Michal Makara Ondrej Mezera has won 12 of their 41 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNo pick published
Sealed 17:53What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Makara
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-29 in 41
Makara
Correct
gap of 17 in 41, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Mezera 1604 vs Makara 1663
Makara
Correct
both rated, 59 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Mezera 0% vs Makara 40%
Makara
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Mezera 30% vs Makara 30%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Mezera -5 · Makara +1
Mezera
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 63% — Clear lean (leans Makara)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Makara form (40%) is below what odds imply (65%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsMezera 2.38 / Makara 1.53
Signal prob.37% / 63%
Edge (Makara)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #13088636
Mezera2.38
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 5
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 116 of 256
Down 0–1, comes back31% 46 of 147
Down 0–2, comes back17% 13 of 78
Makara1.53
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite52% won 44 of 85
Up 2–0, closes it89% 24 of 27
Up 1–0, closes it68% 32 of 47
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeMezera5wins
AwayMakara5wins
4 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeMezera66.7%2 of 3
AwayMakara57.1%4 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Mezera3Makara7n = 10Makara took 7 of 10
S2Mezera6Makara4n = 10Mezera took 6 of 10
S3Mezera5Makara5n = 10split evenly
S4Mezera3Makara5n = 8Makara took 5 of 8
S5Mezera3Makara1n = 4Mezera took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricMezeraMakaraMezera − MakaraBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match38.239.2−1.0per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricMezeraMakaraBasisWin rate · lifetime411 / 819 vs 497 / 103550.2%48%411 / 819 vs 497 / 1035Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.839.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
MakaraMezera 2.38/Makara 1.53
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
62.8%
Makara · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Makara won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 11 · 14:45O. Mezera—514371M. Makara—111211113
LJul 30 · 07:15O. Mezera—781181M. Makara—11114113
WJul 10 · 05:15O. Mezera—10101312113M. Makara—1212111052
WJul 6 · 13:15O. Mezera—11911113M. Makara—611871
LJul 5 · 18:45O. Mezera—6770M. Makara—1111113
WJun 27 · 10:15O. Mezera—811712113M. Makara—119111052
LFeb 2 · 13:19O. Mezera—11115722M. Makara—531111113
LFeb 2 · 10:15O. Mezera—811661M. Makara—11311103
WJan 26 · 11:45O. Mezera—1115113M. Makara—71370
WJan 9 · 11:45O. Mezera—811116123M. Makara—115911102
O. Mezera10
LSep 7 · 14:15O. Mezera2.257490S. Rejent1.571111113LSep 6 · 12:24M. Kocvara1.53119113113O. Mezera2.3871191172LSep 6 · 11:15O. Mezera2.20811771L. Adam1.6111511113LSep 6 · 10:15O. Mezera2.751112461J. Sr1.4091411113LSep 6 · 09:15O. Mezera2.208990M. Kocvara1.611111113LSep 5 · 20:44J. Sr1.331111113O. Mezera3.251440WSep 5 · 19:15L. Veigl1.53114115142O. Mezera2.38611511153WSep 5 · 18:45O. Mezera3.00121476123J. Sr1.3610121111102WSep 5 · 17:45O. Mezera2.00115811113J. Senk1.7341111862LSep 3 · 16:18O. Mezera2.7531111552J. Sr1.40116911113
M. Makara10
LSep 7 · 14:45M. Myler2.10111110113M. Makara1.67681291WSep 4 · 12:29M. Makara2.101211113V. Burylov1.6710940LSep 4 · 12:00M. Makara2.006650L. Adam1.731111113LSep 4 · 10:30V. Burylov1.611171114113M. Makara2.2061171692LSep 4 · 10:00M. Kocvara1.731113123M. Makara2.00611100WSep 3 · 08:14L. Heinzl1.6781181182M. Makara2.10116113113LSep 3 · 07:15L. Adam1.731151211113M. Makara2.0091114772LSep 3 · 06:45M. Makara2.6311970M. Stibor1.441311113LSep 3 · 05:45M. Makara2.201131191L. Heinzl1.6113119113LSep 1 · 08:21M. Makara2.7551211472M. Kocvara1.401110911113
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