TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111057
Played Sep 11Finished
David Gasparovic
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1161214114115––
Michal Makara
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:05 and never touched — 67.7% is still 67.7%
Graded at full timeDavid Gasparovic to win
67.7%
67.7%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDavid Gasparovic above · Michal Makara below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 12-14
Set 3 · 11-4
Set 4 · 11-5
Point 74 set 4, 11-5 — our read held David Gasparovic at 67.7%
74 points played in total.
H2H David Gasparovic 12–7 Michal Makara Michal Makara has won 7 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:05What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Gasparovic
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-7 in 19
Gasparovic
Correct
gap of 5 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gasparovic 1670 vs Makara 1616
Gasparovic
Correct
both rated, 55 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gasparovic 40% vs Makara 20%
Gasparovic
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gasparovic 30% vs Makara 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gasparovic -2 · Makara -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Gasparovic) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Makara form (20%) is below what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGasparovic 1.44 / Makara 2.63
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Gasparovic)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13111057
Gasparovic1.44
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 51 of 88
Up 2–0, closes it87% 20 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it76% 34 of 45
Makara2.63
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 172 of 376
Down 0–1, comes back25% 48 of 192
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 88
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGasparovic6wins
AwayMakara4wins
4 of 10 to a deciderGasparovic leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGasparovic60%3 of 5
AwayMakara40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gasparovic5Makara5n = 10split evenly
S2Gasparovic6Makara4n = 10Gasparovic took 6 of 10
S3Gasparovic5Makara5n = 10split evenly
S4Gasparovic6Makara3n = 9Gasparovic took 6 of 9
S5Gasparovic2Makara2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricGasparovicMakaraG − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match43.038.9+4.1per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGasparovicMakaraBasisWin rate · lifetime101 / 170 vs 496 / 103959.4%47.7%101 / 170 vs 496 / 1039Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.039.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GasparovicGasparovic 1.44/Makara 2.63
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
65.7%
Gasparovic · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Gasparovic won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LAug 30 · 10:15D. Gasparovic—1111101152M. Makara—913128113
WAug 23 · 14:45D. Gasparovic—1116103M. Makara—21470
LJun 26 · 14:00D. Gasparovic—101151152M. Makara—126112113
WJun 19 · 16:33D. Gasparovic—12511113M. Makara—1011371
LJun 19 · 15:30D. Gasparovic—7127101M. Makara—111011123
WMay 31 · 11:00D. Gasparovic—91211153M. Makara—11107131
WMay 30 · 08:24D. Gasparovic—71111113M. Makara—115661
LMay 30 · 07:15D. Gasparovic—11108121M. Makara—51211143
WMay 17 · 12:00D. Gasparovic—981112113M. Makara—111161072
WMar 22 · 13:28D. Gasparovic—1111115113M. Makara—74131152
D. Gasparovic10
WSep 11 · 15:15A. Snr2.758115131D. Gasparovic1.4011711153LSep 11 · 13:45D. Gasparovic1.4011981152L. Adam2.75411113113LSep 6 · 17:00V. Burylov1.831111113D. Gasparovic1.838860WSep 6 · 15:15S. Rejent2.63511951D. Gasparovic1.4411611113LSep 6 · 14:45D. Gasparovic1.73136128112V. Burylov2.0011111011133WSep 6 · 13:45D. Gasparovic2.1081111113J. Chalupa1.67116791LSep 5 · 08:29J. Chalupa1.61121211133D. Gasparovic2.20101013111LSep 5 · 07:15M. Zelinka2.001171312123D. Gasparovic1.739111114102LSep 5 · 06:45D. Gasparovic2.20911521J. Chalupa1.6111711113WSep 5 · 05:45D. Gasparovic1.361111113L. Veigl3.003930
M. Makara10
LSep 11 · 13:15A. Snr1.671111113M. Makara2.105850WSep 8 · 12:29M. Makara1.91111185123R. Pisa1.80891111102LSep 8 · 11:30R. Pisa1.67111111123M. Makara2.107713101LSep 8 · 11:00M. Makara1.91138991L. Veigl1.80111111113LSep 8 · 10:00M. Makara1.6761170T. Liska2.101113113LSep 7 · 16:48M. Makara1.83119111182M. Myler1.83711132113WSep 7 · 15:45S. Rejent1.6711911892M. Makara2.10911611113LSep 7 · 14:45M. Myler2.10111110113M. Makara1.67681291WSep 7 · 13:15O. Mezera2.38811611102M. Makara1.53114115123WSep 4 · 12:29M. Makara2.101211113V. Burylov1.6710940
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