TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111328
Played Sep 11Finished
David Gasparovic
Home
1.40
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
114911811113511
Lukas Adam
Away
2.75
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:04 and never touched — 66.3% is still 66.3%
Graded at full timeDavid Gasparovic to win
66.3%
66.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDavid Gasparovic above · Lukas Adam below
Set 1 · 11-4
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 11-3
Set 5 · 5-11
Point 84 set 5, 5-11 — our read held David Gasparovic at 66.3%
84 points played in total.
H2H David Gasparovic 3–0 Lukas Adam Lukas Adam has won 0 of their 3 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:04What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.40 (66%)
Gasparovic
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-0 in 3
Gasparovic
Wrong
gap of 3 in 3, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gasparovic 1679 vs Adam 1740
Adam
Correct
both rated, 60 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gasparovic 40% vs Adam 60%
Adam
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gasparovic 40% vs Adam 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Gasparovic -1 · Adam -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 66% — Clear lean (leans Gasparovic)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adam form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (36%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGasparovic 1.40 / Adam 2.75
Signal prob.66% / 34%
Edge (Gasparovic)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13111328
Gasparovic1.40
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite58% won 51 of 88
Up 2–0, closes it87% 20 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it76% 34 of 45
Adam2.75
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog43% won 55 of 127
Down 0–1, comes back23% 14 of 60
Down 0–2, comes back4% 1 of 26
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 3 meetings
HomeGasparovic3wins
AwayAdam0wins
Gasparovic leads 3–0.
First set to match win · in this matchup
Not enough first sets
Neither side has won the first set three times here, so there is no rate to publish.
Set by set, in these 3 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gasparovic1Adam2n = 3Adam took 2 of 3
S2Gasparovic3Adam0n = 3Gasparovic took 3 of 3
S3Gasparovic3Adam0n = 3Gasparovic took 3 of 3
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 3 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 3 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home133%
3–1Four sets, home267%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 3 meetings
MetricGasparovicAdamG − ABasisWins30+3in 3 meetingsFirst set12−1of 3Avg pointsper match40.332.0+8.3per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGasparovicAdamBasisWin rate · lifetime101 / 169 vs 284 / 55159.8%51.5%101 / 169 vs 284 / 551Avg sets wonper match2.32.1per matchAvg pointsper match40.040.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GasparovicGasparovic 1.40/Adam 2.75
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.3%
Gasparovic · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Adam won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record3
WJun 19 · 14:30D. Gasparovic—1111113L. Adam—6690
WMay 23 · 18:15D. Gasparovic—91111113L. Adam—119971
WMay 22 · 19:15D. Gasparovic—91411123L. Adam—11126101
D. Gasparovic10
LSep 6 · 17:00V. Burylov1.831111113D. Gasparovic1.838860WSep 6 · 15:15S. Rejent2.63511951D. Gasparovic1.4411611113LSep 6 · 14:45D. Gasparovic1.73136128112V. Burylov2.0011111011133WSep 6 · 13:45D. Gasparovic2.1081111113J. Chalupa1.67116791LSep 5 · 08:29J. Chalupa1.61121211133D. Gasparovic2.20101013111LSep 5 · 07:15M. Zelinka2.001171312123D. Gasparovic1.739111114102LSep 5 · 06:45D. Gasparovic2.20911521J. Chalupa1.6111711113WSep 5 · 05:45D. Gasparovic1.361111113L. Veigl3.003930LSep 4 · 20:53J. Sr1.7311118113D. Gasparovic2.00761121WSep 4 · 19:15A. Snr2.50751191D. Gasparovic1.5011117113
L. Adam10
WSep 11 · 14:15A. Snr2.108860L. Adam1.671111113LSep 11 · 08:43L. Adam2.107750M. Stibor1.671111113WSep 11 · 07:45L. Dobias1.737990L. Adam2.001111113WSep 11 · 06:45L. Svoboda1.9161311562L. Adam1.801111811113LSep 11 · 05:15M. Stibor1.6711811113L. Adam2.10911971WSep 7 · 12:23M. Vyskocil2.6311681182L. Adam1.44811117113LSep 7 · 11:15A. Radkovsky2.00145611143L. Adam1.731211118122LSep 7 · 10:45L. Adam1.501061161R. Pisa2.5012119113WSep 7 · 09:45L. Adam1.671113113M. Vyskocil2.1061180LSep 6 · 12:54J. Sr1.611311113L. Adam2.2011760
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