TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111336
Played Sep 11Finished
Lukas Svoboda
Home
1.91
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
6111311118511611
Lukas Adam
Away
1.80
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:06 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Adam to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Svoboda above · Lukas Adam below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 13-11
Set 3 · 11-8
Set 4 · 5-11
Set 5 · 6-11
Point 93 set 5, 6-11 — our read held Lukas Adam at 54.0%
93 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Svoboda 8–15 Lukas Adam Lukas Svoboda has won 8 of their 23 meetings.
The pickConfirm
Sealed 20:06What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.80 (51%)
Adam
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
8-15 in 23
Adam
Correct
gap of 7 in 23, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svoboda 1662 vs Adam 1730
Adam
Correct
both rated, 69 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svoboda 40% vs Adam 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svoboda 40% vs Adam 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Svoboda +2 · Adam -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Adam)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Adam form (40%) is below what odds imply (56%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvoboda 1.91 / Adam 1.80
Signal prob.46% / 54%
Edge (Adam)+2.5pp
Setka Cup · #13111336
Svoboda1.91
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 17 of 41
Down 0–1, comes back24% 5 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Adam1.80
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 67 of 113
Up 2–0, closes it100% 28 of 28
Up 1–0, closes it89% 47 of 53
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSvoboda4wins
AwayAdam6wins
6 of 10 to a deciderAdam leads 6–4, and 6 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvoboda75%3 of 4
AwayAdam83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svoboda4Adam6n = 10Adam took 6 of 10
S2Svoboda5Adam5n = 10split evenly
S3Svoboda7Adam3n = 10Svoboda took 7 of 10
S4Svoboda4Adam5n = 9Adam took 5 of 9
S5Svoboda2Adam4n = 6Adam took 4 of 6
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away440%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricSvobodaAdamS − ABasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match41.642.0−0.4per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvobodaAdamBasisWin rate · lifetime72 / 160 vs 284 / 55245%51.5%72 / 160 vs 284 / 552Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.240.0per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
AdamSvoboda 1.91/Adam 1.80
Hit
What we said
54%
Adam · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Adam won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LJul 14 · 08:00L. Svoboda—512111152L. Adam—1110136113
WJun 23 · 09:30L. Svoboda—1111113L. Adam—8530
LSep 3 · 09:05L. Svoboda—91181162L. Adam—116115113
LSep 3 · 07:00L. Svoboda—3101381L. Adam—111211113
LSep 1 · 05:15L. Svoboda—55111192L. Adam—111153113
WAug 25 · 06:00L. Svoboda—119118113L. Adam—91181182
LAug 14 · 11:15L. Svoboda—811671L. Adam—11611113
WAug 12 · 05:30L. Svoboda—811166113L. Adam—115141192
WAug 11 · 06:45L. Svoboda—11911113L. Adam—911881
LJul 22 · 06:45L. Svoboda—11911842L. Adam—911911113
L. Svoboda10
LSep 11 · 07:15M. Stibor1.801111114123L. Svoboda1.91813511102WSep 11 · 05:45L. Svoboda2.25115129113L. Dobias1.57511101142WSep 10 · 16:44M. Zelinka1.4010690L. Svoboda2.751211113LSep 10 · 15:45L. Svoboda2.503990M. Zelinka1.501111113LSep 10 · 14:15S. Rejent1.91111285133L. Svoboda1.809101111112LSep 10 · 13:45J. Sr1.6714119113L. Svoboda2.101291151WSep 9 · 12:19L. Dobias1.5381410131L. Svoboda2.38111212153LSep 9 · 11:15L. Svoboda1.80114471M. Stibor1.9161111113LSep 9 · 10:15L. Svoboda2.25107111182M. Zelinka1.57121196113LSep 9 · 09:15L. Svoboda2.381277101L. Dobias1.53101111123
L. Adam10
WSep 11 · 07:45L. Dobias1.737990L. Adam2.001111113LSep 11 · 05:15M. Stibor1.6711811113L. Adam2.10911971WSep 7 · 12:23M. Vyskocil2.6311681182L. Adam1.44811117113LSep 7 · 11:15A. Radkovsky2.00145611143L. Adam1.731211118122LSep 7 · 10:45L. Adam1.501061161R. Pisa2.5012119113WSep 7 · 09:45L. Adam1.671113113M. Vyskocil2.1061180LSep 6 · 12:54J. Sr1.611311113L. Adam2.2011760WSep 6 · 11:15O. Mezera2.20811771L. Adam1.6111511113WSep 6 · 10:45L. Adam1.801111113M. Kocvara1.919480LSep 6 · 09:45L. Adam2.104760J. Sr1.671111113
Upcoming Matches
L. Svoboda
Nothing scheduled
L. Adam
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