TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105662
Played Sep 10Finished
Lukas Svoboda
Home
2.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 2
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
311911911––––
Matus Zelinka
Away
1.50
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:33 and never touched — 62.4% is still 62.4%
Graded at full timeMatus Zelinka to win
62.4%
62.4%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Svoboda above · Matus Zelinka below
Set 1 · 3-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 54 set 3, 9-11 — our read held Matus Zelinka at 62.4%
54 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Svoboda 3–7 Matus Zelinka Lukas Svoboda has won 3 of their 10 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:33What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Zelinka
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
3-7 in 10
Zelinka
Correct
gap of 4 in 10, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svoboda 1650 vs Zelinka 1733
Zelinka
Correct
both rated, 83 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svoboda 20% vs Zelinka 40%
Zelinka
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svoboda 50% vs Zelinka 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Svoboda -2 · Zelinka -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 65% — Clear lean (leans Zelinka) · live re-read · sealed at 62% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zelinka form (40%) is below what odds imply (67%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvoboda 2.50 / Zelinka 1.50
Signal prob.35% / 65%
Edge (Zelinka)+2.4pp
Setka Cup · #13105662
Svoboda2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog42% won 16 of 38
Down 0–1, comes back26% 5 of 19
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Zelinka1.50
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite53% won 69 of 130
Up 2–0, closes it90% 26 of 29
Up 1–0, closes it78% 45 of 58
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSvoboda3wins
AwayZelinka7wins
4 of 10 to a deciderZelinka leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvoboda100%3 of 3
AwayZelinka100%7 of 7
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svoboda3Zelinka7n = 10Zelinka took 7 of 10
S2Svoboda6Zelinka4n = 10Svoboda took 6 of 10
S3Svoboda2Zelinka8n = 10Zelinka took 8 of 10
S4Svoboda4Zelinka2n = 6Svoboda took 4 of 6
S5Svoboda1Zelinka3n = 4Zelinka took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away330%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricSvobodaZelinkaS − ZBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set37−4of 10Avg pointsper match37.038.8−1.8per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvobodaZelinkaBasisWin rate · lifetime70 / 157 vs 207 / 39444.6%52.5%70 / 157 vs 207 / 394Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ZelinkaSvoboda 2.50/Zelinka 1.50
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
64.9%
Zelinka · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Zelinka won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 9 · 10:15L. Svoboda—107111182M. Zelinka—121196113
WJun 14 · 08:33L. Svoboda—111168113M. Zelinka—57111142
LJun 14 · 05:30L. Svoboda—911911102M. Zelinka—117119123
LAug 17 · 07:15L. Svoboda—11990M. Zelinka—1311113
LMay 15 · 19:45L. Svoboda—91191172M. Zelinka—117119113
LMay 8 · 05:45L. Svoboda—4890M. Zelinka—1111113
LFeb 22 · 08:15L. Svoboda—83110M. Zelinka—1111133
WFeb 21 · 08:15L. Svoboda—11136113M. Zelinka—6111181
WJan 31 · 09:20L. Svoboda—1111113M. Zelinka—9750
LJan 31 · 08:15L. Svoboda—6115111M. Zelinka—11711133
L. Svoboda10
LSep 10 · 14:15S. Rejent1.91111285133L. Svoboda1.809101111112LSep 10 · 13:45J. Sr1.6714119113L. Svoboda2.101291151WSep 9 · 12:19L. Dobias1.5381410131L. Svoboda2.38111212153LSep 9 · 11:15L. Svoboda1.80114471M. Stibor1.9161111113LSep 9 · 10:15L. Svoboda2.25107111182M. Zelinka1.57121196113LSep 9 · 09:15L. Svoboda2.381277101L. Dobias1.53101111123WAug 31 · 16:49V. Grubr2.388880L. Svoboda1.531111113WAug 31 · 15:15L. Svoboda1.5791111113O. Mezera2.25119561WAug 31 · 14:15L. Svoboda1.8312116123A. Radkovsky1.8310511101WAug 31 · 13:15L. Svoboda1.611111113V. Grubr2.207780
M. Zelinka10
LSep 10 · 14:45J. Sr1.8311126113M. Zelinka1.837101151LSep 10 · 13:15S. Rejent2.50111146133M. Zelinka1.50741111112WSep 10 · 08:53M. Zelinka2.0012116113L. Dobias1.731091191LSep 10 · 07:45L. Dobias1.7311117113M. Zelinka2.00871191WSep 10 · 06:45L. Heinzl1.831261051M. Zelinka1.83101112113WSep 10 · 05:15P. Wasik1.5311115562M. Zelinka2.38971111113WSep 9 · 12:48M. Zelinka1.6781111113M. Stibor2.10116671WSep 9 · 11:45M. Zelinka2.101111113L. Dobias1.678970WSep 9 · 10:15L. Svoboda2.25107111182M. Zelinka1.57121196113LSep 9 · 09:45M. Stibor2.2011811133M. Zelinka1.617111111
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