TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105683
Played Sep 10Finished
Ladislav Dobias
Home
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
118117711119––
Matus Zelinka
Away
2.00
At publish
Won last 5Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 5
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:32 and never touched — 54.5% is still 54.5%
Graded at full timeLadislav Dobias to win
54.5%
54.5%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLadislav Dobias above · Matus Zelinka below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 7-11
Set 4 · 11-9
Point 75 set 4, 11-9 — our read held Ladislav Dobias at 54.5%
75 points played in total.
H2H Ladislav Dobias 33–28 Matus Zelinka Matus Zelinka has won 28 of their 61 meetings.
Last 10 · 5–5Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:32What took a side2 for · 4 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Dobias
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
33-28 in 61
Dobias
Correct
gap of 5 in 61, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Dobias 1746 vs Zelinka 1747
Zelinka
Wrong
both rated, 1 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Dobias 20% vs Zelinka 100%
Zelinka
Wrong
80pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Dobias 50% vs Zelinka 70%
Zelinka
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Dobias +1 · Zelinka +5
Zelinka
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 54% — Coin-flip (leans Dobias)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Zelinka form (100%) outperforms what odds imply (50%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsDobias 1.73 / Zelinka 2.00
Signal prob.54% / 46%
Edge (Dobias)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13105683
Dobias1.73
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 206 of 351
Up 2–0, closes it94% 66 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it80% 146 of 182
Zelinka2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 5
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog56% won 34 of 61
Down 0–1, comes back38% 13 of 34
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeDobias5wins
AwayZelinka5wins
3 of 10 to a deciderLevel at 5–5, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeDobias62.5%5 of 8
AwayZelinkan = 2, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Dobias8Zelinka2n = 10Dobias took 8 of 10
S2Dobias3Zelinka7n = 10Zelinka took 7 of 10
S3Dobias4Zelinka6n = 10Zelinka took 6 of 10
S4Dobias3Zelinka4n = 7Zelinka took 4 of 7
S5Dobias2Zelinka1n = 3Dobias took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricDobiasZelinkaD − ZBasisWins550in 10 meetingsFirst set82+6of 10Avg pointsper match37.236.8+0.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricDobiasZelinkaBasisWin rate · lifetime413 / 742 vs 206 / 39155.7%52.7%413 / 742 vs 206 / 391Avg sets wonper match2.22.1per matchAvg pointsper match41.139.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DobiasDobias 1.73/Zelinka 2.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
54.1%
Dobias · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Dobias won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 10 · 07:45L. Dobias—11117113M. Zelinka—871191
LSep 9 · 11:45L. Dobias—8970M. Zelinka—1111113
LSep 8 · 08:18L. Dobias—971181M. Zelinka—11117113
WSep 8 · 07:15L. Dobias—1161110123M. Zelinka—711912102
LAug 28 · 08:23L. Dobias—117681M. Zelinka—91111113
LAug 28 · 05:45L. Dobias—1194101M. Zelinka—81111123
WAug 25 · 08:53L. Dobias—113811113M. Zelinka—61111532
LAug 25 · 07:45L. Dobias—111091152M. Zelinka—912113113
WAug 24 · 06:15L. Dobias—1111123M. Zelinka—77100
WAug 7 · 08:38L. Dobias—1111113M. Zelinka—6690
L. Dobias10
WSep 10 · 06:15P. Wasik1.8351170L. Dobias1.831113113LSep 10 · 05:45L. Heinzl2.25111011113L. Dobias1.57812981LSep 9 · 12:19L. Dobias1.5381410131L. Svoboda2.38111212153LSep 9 · 11:45M. Zelinka2.101111113L. Dobias1.678970LSep 9 · 10:45M. Stibor2.2011811113L. Dobias1.61311691WSep 9 · 09:15L. Svoboda2.381277101L. Dobias1.53101111123LSep 8 · 08:18L. Dobias1.73971181M. Zelinka2.0011117113WSep 8 · 07:15M. Zelinka2.10711912102L. Dobias1.671161110123WSep 8 · 06:45L. Dobias1.501111123V. Grubr2.5089100WSep 8 · 05:45L. Dobias1.53111111113L. Heinzl2.38139771
M. Zelinka10
WSep 10 · 06:45L. Heinzl1.831261051M. Zelinka1.83101112113WSep 10 · 05:15P. Wasik1.5311115562M. Zelinka2.38971111113WSep 9 · 12:48M. Zelinka1.6781111113M. Stibor2.10116671WSep 9 · 11:45M. Zelinka2.101111113L. Dobias1.678970WSep 9 · 10:15L. Svoboda2.25107111182M. Zelinka1.57121196113LSep 9 · 09:45M. Stibor2.2011811133M. Zelinka1.617111111WSep 8 · 08:18L. Dobias1.73971181M. Zelinka2.0011117113LSep 8 · 07:15M. Zelinka2.10711912102L. Dobias1.671161110123LSep 8 · 06:15M. Zelinka1.835980L. Heinzl1.831111113WSep 8 · 05:15M. Zelinka1.531111113V. Grubr2.387970
Upcoming Matches
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M. Zelinka
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