TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13105547
Played Sep 10Finished
Lukas Heinzl
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 1
Set by set
1181012119118––
Ladislav Dobias
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 18:15 and never touched — 60.1% is still 60.1%
Graded at full timeLadislav Dobias to win
60.1%
60.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Heinzl above · Ladislav Dobias below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 10-12
Set 3 · 11-9
Set 4 · 11-8
Point 80 set 4, 11-8 — our read held Ladislav Dobias at 60.1%
80 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Heinzl 29–45 Ladislav Dobias Lukas Heinzl has won 29 of their 74 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 18:15What took a side5 for · 1 against · 0 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Dobias
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
29-45 in 74
Dobias
Wrong
gap of 16 in 74, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Heinzl 1703 vs Dobias 1730
Dobias
Wrong
both rated, 27 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Heinzl 40% vs Dobias 20%
Heinzl
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Heinzl 30% vs Dobias 50%
Dobias
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Heinzl +1 · Dobias -3
Dobias
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
5 for, 0 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 60% — Slight lean (leans Dobias)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dobias form (20%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHeinzl 2.25 / Dobias 1.57
Signal prob.40% / 60%
Edge (Dobias)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13105547
Heinzl2.25
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog49% won 47 of 97
Down 0–1, comes back24% 11 of 45
Down 0–2, comes back14% 3 of 22
Dobias1.57
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 206 of 351
Up 2–0, closes it94% 66 of 70
Up 1–0, closes it80% 146 of 182
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHeinzl3wins
AwayDobias7wins
1 of 10 to a deciderDobias leads 7–3, and 1 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHeinzl75%3 of 4
AwayDobias100%6 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Heinzl4Dobias6n = 10Dobias took 6 of 10
S2Heinzl3Dobias7n = 10Dobias took 7 of 10
S3Heinzl7Dobias3n = 10Heinzl took 7 of 10
S4Heinzl1Dobias5n = 6Dobias took 5 of 6
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home110%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away440%
0–3Straight, away220%
These 10 meetings
MetricHeinzlDobiasH − DBasisWins37−4in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match31.837.1−5.3per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHeinzlDobiasBasisWin rate · lifetime357 / 653 vs 411 / 73954.7%55.6%357 / 653 vs 411 / 739Avg sets wonper match2.22.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.841.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DobiasHeinzl 2.25/Dobias 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
60.1%
Dobias · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–1
Heinzl won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 8 · 05:45L. Heinzl—139771L. Dobias—111111113
WAug 26 · 11:45L. Heinzl—1213113L. Dobias—101190
LAug 24 · 05:45L. Heinzl—9660L. Dobias—1111113
LAug 21 · 09:45L. Heinzl—731131L. Dobias—11116113
LJul 29 · 08:48L. Heinzl—971151L. Dobias—11118113
LJul 29 · 07:45L. Heinzl—771181L. Dobias—11118113
LJul 28 · 07:15L. Heinzl—9370L. Dobias—1111113
WJul 24 · 06:45L. Heinzl—1111113L. Dobias—9760
LJul 20 · 14:45L. Heinzl—51111452L. Dobias—118911113
WJul 20 · 07:15L. Heinzl—121311123L. Dobias—10153101
L. Heinzl10
LSep 10 · 06:45L. Heinzl1.831261051M. Zelinka1.83101112113WSep 8 · 08:48V. Grubr2.25711671L. Heinzl1.5711511113LSep 8 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.611011871V. Grubr2.2012711113WSep 8 · 06:15M. Zelinka1.835980L. Heinzl1.831111113LSep 8 · 05:45L. Dobias1.53111111113L. Heinzl2.38139771LSep 7 · 08:49M. Zelinka1.8311812113L. Heinzl1.839111091LSep 7 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.83551691M. Zelinka1.83111114113WSep 7 · 06:15P. Wasik1.531410981L. Heinzl2.38121211113LSep 7 · 05:45L. Veigl2.50111111113L. Heinzl1.50781361LSep 3 · 08:14L. Heinzl1.6781181182M. Makara2.10116113113
L. Dobias10
WSep 10 · 06:15P. Wasik1.8351170L. Dobias1.831113113LSep 9 · 12:19L. Dobias1.5381410131L. Svoboda2.38111212153LSep 9 · 11:45M. Zelinka2.101111113L. Dobias1.678970LSep 9 · 10:45M. Stibor2.2011811113L. Dobias1.61311691WSep 9 · 09:15L. Svoboda2.381277101L. Dobias1.53101111123LSep 8 · 08:18L. Dobias1.73971181M. Zelinka2.0011117113WSep 8 · 07:15M. Zelinka2.10711912102L. Dobias1.671161110123WSep 8 · 06:45L. Dobias1.501111123V. Grubr2.5089100WSep 8 · 05:45L. Dobias1.53111111113L. Heinzl2.38139771LAug 28 · 08:23L. Dobias1.57117681M. Zelinka2.2591111113
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