TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13094454
Played Sep 8Finished
Lukas Heinzl
Home
1.62
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
3–7Last 10Won last 1
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1012117811711––
Vojtech Grubr
Away
2.20
At publish
Lost last 4Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:07 and never touched — 57.0% is still 57.0%
Graded at full timeLukas Heinzl to win
57.0%
57.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Heinzl above · Vojtech Grubr below
Set 1 · 10-12
Set 2 · 11-7
Set 3 · 8-11
Set 4 · 7-11
Point 77 set 4, 7-11 — our read held Lukas Heinzl at 57.0%
77 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Heinzl 12–7 Vojtech Grubr Vojtech Grubr has won 7 of their 19 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:07What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.61 (58%)
Heinzl
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
12-7 in 19
Heinzl
Wrong
gap of 5 in 19, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Heinzl 1708 vs Grubr 1611
Heinzl
Wrong
both rated, 97 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Heinzl 40% vs Grubr 20%
Heinzl
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Heinzl 30% vs Grubr 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Heinzl +1 · Grubr -4
Grubr
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 59% — Slight lean (leans Heinzl) · live re-read · sealed at 57% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Grubr form (20%) is below what odds imply (45%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsHeinzl 1.61 / Grubr 2.20
Signal prob.59% / 41%
Edge (Heinzl)+1.2pp
Setka Cup · #13094454
Heinzl1.61
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite59% won 158 of 267
Up 2–0, closes it95% 74 of 78
Up 1–0, closes it77% 115 of 150
Grubr2.20
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 4
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog44% won 65 of 148
Down 0–1, comes back30% 24 of 81
Down 0–2, comes back11% 5 of 46
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeHeinzl7wins
AwayGrubr3wins
4 of 10 to a deciderHeinzl leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeHeinzl85.7%6 of 7
AwayGrubr66.7%2 of 3
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Heinzl7Grubr3n = 10Heinzl took 7 of 10
S2Heinzl5Grubr5n = 10split evenly
S3Heinzl5Grubr5n = 10split evenly
S4Heinzl4Grubr4n = 8split evenly
S5Heinzl3Grubr1n = 4Heinzl took 3 of 4
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home330%
2–3Decider, away110%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricHeinzlGrubrH − GBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match41.441.6−0.2per matchSweeps1103–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricHeinzlGrubrBasisWin rate · lifetime356 / 651 vs 231 / 46454.7%49.8%356 / 651 vs 231 / 464Avg sets wonper match2.22.0per matchAvg pointsper match39.940.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
HeinzlHeinzl 1.61/Grubr 2.20
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
58.9%
Heinzl · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Grubr won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WJun 15 · 17:45L. Heinzl—14412113V. Grubr—12111071
WMay 21 · 20:18L. Heinzl—1111113V. Grubr—7980
LMay 21 · 19:15L. Heinzl—51111372V. Grubr—118811113
LMay 12 · 11:45L. Heinzl—118971V. Grubr—91111113
WMay 11 · 07:00L. Heinzl—11611113V. Grubr—811971
WMay 5 · 07:15L. Heinzl—13147113V. Grubr—11121191
LApr 15 · 19:15L. Heinzl—7680V. Grubr—1111113
WApr 10 · 05:15L. Heinzl—14111010113V. Grubr—128121292
WApr 9 · 19:00L. Heinzl—1211108113V. Grubr—107121182
WMar 23 · 21:13L. Heinzl—1191113113V. Grubr—131171172
L. Heinzl10
WSep 8 · 08:48V. Grubr2.25711671L. Heinzl1.5711511113WSep 8 · 06:15M. Zelinka1.835980L. Heinzl1.831111113LSep 8 · 05:45L. Dobias1.53111111113L. Heinzl2.38139771LSep 7 · 08:49M. Zelinka1.8311812113L. Heinzl1.839111091LSep 7 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.83551691M. Zelinka1.83111114113WSep 7 · 06:15P. Wasik1.531410981L. Heinzl2.38121211113LSep 7 · 05:45L. Veigl2.50111111113L. Heinzl1.50781361LSep 3 · 08:14L. Heinzl1.6781181182M. Makara2.10116113113LSep 3 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.7381380M. Stibor2.001115113LSep 3 · 06:15L. Adam2.0091111113L. Heinzl1.73113791
V. Grubr10
LSep 8 · 08:48V. Grubr2.25711671L. Heinzl1.5711511113LSep 8 · 06:45L. Dobias1.501111123V. Grubr2.5089100LSep 8 · 05:15M. Zelinka1.531111113V. Grubr2.387970LSep 2 · 12:13A. Radkovsky2.1011191217113V. Grubr1.67817141992LSep 2 · 11:15V. Grubr1.53118281M. Vyskocil2.3891111113WSep 2 · 10:15V. Grubr1.67117511113J. Dolezal2.1061111972LSep 2 · 09:15V. Grubr1.61691181A. Radkovsky2.2011117113WSep 1 · 12:54L. Rulc1.831111810102V. Grubr1.83881112123WSep 1 · 11:15V. Grubr1.67611511113A. Radkovsky2.1011611792LSep 1 · 10:15V. Grubr1.834116101L. Rulc1.8311511123
Upcoming Matches
L. Heinzl
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V. Grubr
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