Matus Zelinka vs Lukas Svoboda 0-3

TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup

Setka CupMatch #13110600

Played Sep 10Finished

Matus Zelinka

Home

1.40

At publish

Won last 1

Form at publish

7–3Last 10Won last 1

Final

0 – 3

Set by set

1012611911––––

Lukas Svoboda

Away

2.75

At publish

Lost last 3

Form at publish

4–6Last 10Lost last 3

How it is goingMatus Zelinka above · Lukas Svoboda below

Set 1 · 10-12

Set 2 · 6-11

Set 3 · 9-11

Point 59 set 3, 9-11

59 points played in total.

H2H Matus Zelinka 8–3 Lukas Svoboda Lukas Svoboda has won 3 of their 11 meetings.

Last 10 · 7–3Same sideHead to head

Same-day rematch · 1h before this match

Zelinka beat Svoboda 3-0.

Same-day rematch winners hit ~50% historically — the market typically prices this in. Which is why it moves nothing in the read below: it is context, not a signal.

Signal confidence: 71% — Strong (leans Zelinka)

Decision Summary

Why this prediction

Svoboda form (20%) is below what odds imply (36%)

Market vs Signals

Market oddsZelinka 1.40 / Svoboda 2.75

Signal prob.71% / 29%

Edge (Zelinka)+4.4pp

Setka Cup · #13110600

Zelinka1.40

70%won 7 of 10 · last 10

oldest → newest

40%takes the first set · 4 of 10

As favourite53% won 69 of 130

Up 2–0, closes it90% 26 of 29

Up 1–0, closes it78% 45 of 58

Svoboda2.75

40%won 4 of 10 · last 10

Lost last 3

oldest → newest

50%takes the first set · 5 of 10

As underdog42% won 16 of 38

Down 0–1, comes back26% 5 of 19

Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 10

Head to head

H2H window

The recordacross 10 meetings

HomeZelinka7wins

AwaySvoboda3wins

4 of 10 to a deciderZelinka leads 7–3, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.

First set to match win · in this matchup

HomeZelinka100%7 of 7

AwaySvoboda100%3 of 3

Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one

S1Zelinka7Svoboda3n = 10Zelinka took 7 of 10

S2Zelinka5Svoboda5n = 10split evenly

S3Zelinka8Svoboda2n = 10Zelinka took 8 of 10

S4Zelinka1Svoboda4n = 5Svoboda took 4 of 5

S5Zelinka3Svoboda1n = 4Zelinka took 3 of 4

How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code

3–0Straight, home440%

3–1Four sets, home00%

3–2Decider, home330%

2–3Decider, away110%

1–3Four sets, away110%

0–3Straight, away110%

These 10 meetings

MetricZelinkaSvobodaZ − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set73+4of 10Avg pointsper match37.935.8+2.1per matchSweeps41+33–0 or 0–3

Career, not this matchup

MetricZelinkaSvobodaBasisWin rate · lifetime208 / 395 vs 70 / 15852.7%44.3%208 / 395 vs 70 / 158Avg sets wonper match2.11.9per matchAvg pointsper match39.838.1per match

Deep Dive by Market

Each market builds on the overview above

Forecast

History

Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction

Match Winner

Zelinka

Zelinka 1.40/Svoboda 2.75

Read onlywould have missed

What we said

70.7%

Zelinka · sealed before the serve

What happened

0–3

Svoboda won

Recent Results

H2H · no odds on record10

WSep 10 · 15:45M. Zelinka—1111113L. Svoboda—3990

WSep 9 · 10:15M. Zelinka—121196113L. Svoboda—107111182

LJun 14 · 08:33M. Zelinka—57111142L. Svoboda—111168113

WJun 14 · 05:30M. Zelinka—117119123L. Svoboda—911911102

WAug 17 · 07:15M. Zelinka—1311113L. Svoboda—11990

WMay 15 · 19:45M. Zelinka—117119113L. Svoboda—91191172

WMay 8 · 05:45M. Zelinka—1111113L. Svoboda—4890

WFeb 22 · 08:15M. Zelinka—1111133L. Svoboda—83110

LFeb 21 · 08:15M. Zelinka—6111181L. Svoboda—11136113

LJan 31 · 09:20M. Zelinka—9750L. Svoboda—1111113

M. Zelinka10

WSep 10 · 15:45L. Svoboda2.503990M. Zelinka1.501111113 LSep 10 · 14:45J. Sr1.8311126113M. Zelinka1.837101151 LSep 10 · 13:15S. Rejent2.50111146133M. Zelinka1.50741111112 WSep 10 · 08:53M. Zelinka2.0012116113L. Dobias1.731091191 LSep 10 · 07:45L. Dobias1.7311117113M. Zelinka2.00871191 WSep 10 · 06:45L. Heinzl1.831261051M. Zelinka1.83101112113 WSep 10 · 05:15P. Wasik1.5311115562M. Zelinka2.38971111113 WSep 9 · 12:48M. Zelinka1.6781111113M. Stibor2.10116671 WSep 9 · 11:45M. Zelinka2.101111113L. Dobias1.678970 WSep 9 · 10:15L. Svoboda2.25107111182M. Zelinka1.57121196113

L. Svoboda10

LSep 10 · 15:45L. Svoboda2.503990M. Zelinka1.501111113 LSep 10 · 14:15S. Rejent1.91111285133L. Svoboda1.809101111112 LSep 10 · 13:45J. Sr1.6714119113L. Svoboda2.101291151 WSep 9 · 12:19L. Dobias1.5381410131L. Svoboda2.38111212153 LSep 9 · 11:15L. Svoboda1.80114471M. Stibor1.9161111113 LSep 9 · 10:15L. Svoboda2.25107111182M. Zelinka1.57121196113 LSep 9 · 09:15L. Svoboda2.381277101L. Dobias1.53101111123 WAug 31 · 16:49V. Grubr2.388880L. Svoboda1.531111113 WAug 31 · 15:15L. Svoboda1.5791111113O. Mezera2.25119561 WAug 31 · 14:15L. Svoboda1.8312116123A. Radkovsky1.8310511101

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