TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111370
Played Sep 11Finished
Lukas Svoboda
Home
2.25
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
3 – 2
Set by set
1155111210911114
Ladislav Dobias
Away
1.57
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:06 and never touched — 62.1% is still 62.1%
Graded at full timeLadislav Dobias to win
62.1%
62.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Svoboda above · Ladislav Dobias below
Set 1 · 11-5
Set 2 · 5-11
Set 3 · 12-10
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 11-4
Point 89 set 5, 11-4 — our read held Ladislav Dobias at 62.1%
89 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Svoboda 5–7 Ladislav Dobias Lukas Svoboda has won 5 of their 12 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:06What took a side3 for · 0 against · 3 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.57 (59%)
Dobias
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-7 in 12
Dobias
Wrong
gap of 2 in 12, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svoboda 1648 vs Dobias 1734
Dobias
Wrong
both rated, 86 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svoboda 40% vs Dobias 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svoboda 40% vs Dobias 40%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Svoboda +1 · Dobias -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 3 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Dobias)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dobias form (40%) is below what odds imply (64%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvoboda 2.25 / Dobias 1.57
Signal prob.38% / 62%
Edge (Dobias)+3.2pp
Setka Cup · #13111370
Svoboda2.25
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog42% won 17 of 41
Down 0–1, comes back24% 5 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Dobias1.57
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite59% won 207 of 354
Up 2–0, closes it94% 67 of 71
Up 1–0, closes it80% 147 of 183
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeSvoboda4wins
AwayDobias6wins
4 of 10 to a deciderDobias leads 6–4, and 4 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvoboda40%2 of 5
AwayDobias60%3 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svoboda5Dobias5n = 10split evenly
S2Svoboda2Dobias8n = 10Dobias took 8 of 10
S3Svoboda6Dobias4n = 10Svoboda took 6 of 10
S4Svoboda4Dobias5n = 9Dobias took 5 of 9
S5Svoboda2Dobias2n = 4split evenly
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home00%
3–1Four sets, home220%
3–2Decider, home220%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away330%
0–3Straight, away110%
These 10 meetings
MetricSvobodaDobiasS − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match40.042.6−2.6per matchSweeps01−13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvobodaDobiasBasisWin rate · lifetime71 / 159 vs 413 / 74344.7%55.6%71 / 159 vs 413 / 743Avg sets wonper match1.92.2per matchAvg pointsper match38.141.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DobiasSvoboda 2.25/Dobias 1.57
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.1%
Dobias · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–2
Svoboda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 9 · 12:19L. Svoboda—111212153L. Dobias—81410131
LSep 9 · 09:15L. Svoboda—1277101L. Dobias—101111123
LAug 6 · 10:45L. Svoboda—13911882L. Dobias—1111911113
WAug 5 · 08:44L. Svoboda—811911113L. Dobias—11711362
WAug 5 · 05:45L. Svoboda—11611113L. Dobias—811861
LAug 4 · 16:14L. Svoboda—153771L. Dobias—131111113
LAug 4 · 13:15L. Svoboda—681181L. Dobias—11119113
LAug 4 · 05:45L. Svoboda—7790L. Dobias—1111113
LAug 3 · 20:48L. Svoboda—86111222L. Dobias—1111710113
WAug 3 · 17:15L. Svoboda—911117113L. Dobias—11681162
L. Svoboda10
LSep 11 · 07:15M. Stibor1.801111114123L. Svoboda1.91813511102LSep 11 · 06:45L. Svoboda1.9161311562L. Adam1.801111811113WSep 10 · 16:44M. Zelinka1.4010690L. Svoboda2.751211113LSep 10 · 15:45L. Svoboda2.503990M. Zelinka1.501111113LSep 10 · 14:15S. Rejent1.91111285133L. Svoboda1.809101111112LSep 10 · 13:45J. Sr1.6714119113L. Svoboda2.101291151WSep 9 · 12:19L. Dobias1.5381410131L. Svoboda2.38111212153LSep 9 · 11:15L. Svoboda1.80114471M. Stibor1.9161111113LSep 9 · 10:15L. Svoboda2.25107111182M. Zelinka1.57121196113LSep 9 · 09:15L. Svoboda2.381277101L. Dobias1.53101111123
L. Dobias10
LSep 11 · 07:45L. Dobias1.737990L. Adam2.001111113WSep 11 · 06:15M. Stibor2.1064100L. Dobias1.671111123LSep 10 · 08:53M. Zelinka2.0012116113L. Dobias1.731091191WSep 10 · 07:45L. Dobias1.7311117113M. Zelinka2.00871191WSep 10 · 06:15P. Wasik1.8351170L. Dobias1.831113113LSep 10 · 05:45L. Heinzl2.25111011113L. Dobias1.57812981LSep 9 · 12:19L. Dobias1.5381410131L. Svoboda2.38111212153LSep 9 · 11:45M. Zelinka2.101111113L. Dobias1.678970LSep 9 · 10:45M. Stibor2.2011811113L. Dobias1.61311691WSep 9 · 09:15L. Svoboda2.381277101L. Dobias1.53101111123
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