TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13111166
Played Sep 11Finished
Michal Stibor
Home
2.10
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
6114111012––––
Ladislav Dobias
Away
1.67
At publish
Lost last 2Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 19:28 and never touched — 56.2% is still 56.2%
Graded at full timeLadislav Dobias to win
56.2%
56.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingMichal Stibor above · Ladislav Dobias below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 4-11
Set 3 · 10-12
Point 54 set 3, 10-12 — our read held Ladislav Dobias at 56.2%
54 points played in total.
H2H Michal Stibor 10–17 Ladislav Dobias Michal Stibor has won 10 of their 27 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 19:28What took a side2 for · 3 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Dobias
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
10-17 in 27
Dobias
Correct
gap of 7 in 27, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Stibor 1772 vs Dobias 1738
Stibor
Wrong
both rated, 34 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Stibor 80% vs Dobias 40%
Stibor
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Stibor 70% vs Dobias 30%
Stibor
Wrong
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Stibor +1 · Dobias -2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Dobias)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Dobias form (40%) is below what odds imply (60%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsStibor 2.10 / Dobias 1.67
Signal prob.44% / 56%
Edge (Dobias)+0.4pp
Setka Cup · #13111166
Stibor2.10
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
80%takes the first set · 8 of 10
As underdog42% won 27 of 64
Down 0–1, comes back28% 11 of 39
Down 0–2, comes back5% 1 of 19
Dobias1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 2
oldest → newest20%takes the first set · 2 of 10
As favourite59% won 207 of 354
Up 2–0, closes it94% 67 of 71
Up 1–0, closes it80% 147 of 183
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeStibor4wins
AwayDobias6wins
2 of 10 to a deciderDobias leads 6–4, and 2 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeStibor75%3 of 4
AwayDobias83.3%5 of 6
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Stibor4Dobias6n = 10Dobias took 6 of 10
S2Stibor3Dobias7n = 10Dobias took 7 of 10
S3Stibor6Dobias4n = 10Stibor took 6 of 10
S4Stibor4Dobias2n = 6Stibor took 4 of 6
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home330%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away330%
These 10 meetings
MetricStiborDobiasS − DBasisWins46−2in 10 meetingsFirst set46−2of 10Avg pointsper match33.636.1−2.5per matchSweeps13−23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricStiborDobiasBasisWin rate · lifetime173 / 326 vs 414 / 74553.1%55.6%173 / 326 vs 414 / 745Avg sets wonper match2.12.2per matchAvg pointsper match39.341.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
DobiasStibor 2.10/Dobias 1.67
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
56.2%
Dobias · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Dobias won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 11 · 06:15M. Stibor—64100L. Dobias—1111123
WSep 9 · 10:45M. Stibor—11811113L. Dobias—311691
LAug 25 · 06:15M. Stibor—5680L. Dobias—1111113
WAug 20 · 06:45M. Stibor—111111113L. Dobias—913791
LJul 21 · 05:15M. Stibor—411101162L. Dobias—116129113
LJul 20 · 06:15M. Stibor—11611242L. Dobias—711811113
WJun 11 · 06:45M. Stibor—91111113L. Dobias—117881
WJun 9 · 06:15M. Stibor—1111113L. Dobias—9750
LJun 8 · 09:15M. Stibor—691161L. Dobias—11117113
LJun 5 · 08:34M. Stibor—91190L. Dobias—1113113
M. Stibor10
WSep 11 · 07:15M. Stibor1.801111114123L. Svoboda1.91813511102WSep 11 · 05:15M. Stibor1.6711811113L. Adam2.10911971LSep 9 · 12:48M. Zelinka1.6781111113M. Stibor2.10116671WSep 9 · 11:15L. Svoboda1.80114471M. Stibor1.9161111113WSep 9 · 10:45M. Stibor2.2011811113L. Dobias1.61311691WSep 9 · 09:45M. Stibor2.2011811133M. Zelinka1.617111111LSep 3 · 08:44M. Stibor1.67681491L. Adam2.10111112113WSep 3 · 07:45L. Heinzl1.7381380M. Stibor2.001115113WSep 3 · 06:45M. Makara2.6311970M. Stibor1.441311113WSep 3 · 05:15L. Adam2.1021111562M. Stibor1.67117511113
L. Dobias10
LSep 11 · 07:45L. Dobias1.737990L. Adam2.001111113LSep 11 · 05:45L. Svoboda2.25115129113L. Dobias1.57511101142LSep 10 · 08:53M. Zelinka2.0012116113L. Dobias1.731091191WSep 10 · 07:45L. Dobias1.7311117113M. Zelinka2.00871191WSep 10 · 06:15P. Wasik1.8351170L. Dobias1.831113113LSep 10 · 05:45L. Heinzl2.25111011113L. Dobias1.57812981LSep 9 · 12:19L. Dobias1.5381410131L. Svoboda2.38111212153LSep 9 · 11:45M. Zelinka2.101111113L. Dobias1.678970LSep 9 · 10:45M. Stibor2.2011811113L. Dobias1.61311691WSep 9 · 09:15L. Svoboda2.381277101L. Dobias1.53101111123
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