TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116672
Played Sep 12Finished
David Gasparovic
Home
1.44
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Lost last 1
Final
0 – 3
Set by set
611811911––––
Michal Makara
Away
2.63
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
6–4Last 10Lost last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 20:23 and never touched — 68.3% is still 68.3%
Graded at full timeDavid Gasparovic to win
68.3%
68.3%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingDavid Gasparovic above · Michal Makara below
Set 1 · 6-11
Set 2 · 8-11
Set 3 · 9-11
Point 56 set 3, 9-11 — our read held David Gasparovic at 68.3%
56 points played in total.
H2H David Gasparovic 13–7 Michal Makara Michal Makara has won 7 of their 20 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 20:23What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.44 (65%)
Gasparovic
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
13-7 in 20
Gasparovic
Wrong
gap of 6 in 20, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Gasparovic 1687 vs Makara 1622
Gasparovic
Wrong
both rated, 66 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Gasparovic 40% vs Makara 80%
Makara
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Gasparovic 40% vs Makara 60%
Makara
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Gasparovic -1 · Makara -1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 67% — Clear lean (leans Gasparovic) · live re-read · sealed at 68% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Makara form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (38%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsGasparovic 1.44 / Makara 2.63
Signal prob.67% / 34%
Edge (Gasparovic)+2.0pp
Setka Cup · #13116672
Gasparovic1.44
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As favourite59% won 52 of 88
Up 2–0, closes it87% 20 of 23
Up 1–0, closes it74% 36 of 49
Makara2.63
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog46% won 173 of 377
Down 0–1, comes back24% 47 of 193
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 89
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeGasparovic6wins
AwayMakara4wins
3 of 10 to a deciderGasparovic leads 6–4, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeGasparovic60%3 of 5
AwayMakara40%2 of 5
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Gasparovic5Makara5n = 10split evenly
S2Gasparovic5Makara5n = 10split evenly
S3Gasparovic6Makara4n = 10Gasparovic took 6 of 10
S4Gasparovic7Makara2n = 9Gasparovic took 7 of 9
S5Gasparovic1Makara2n = 3Makara took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home110%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away220%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricGasparovicMakaraG − MBasisWins64+2in 10 meetingsFirst set550of 10Avg pointsper match42.637.8+4.8per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricGasparovicMakaraBasisWin rate · lifetime103 / 173 vs 500 / 104359.5%47.9%103 / 173 vs 500 / 1043Avg sets wonper match2.32.0per matchAvg pointsper match40.139.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
GasparovicGasparovic 1.44/Makara 2.63
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
66.5%
Gasparovic · sealed before the serve
What happened
0–3
Makara won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
WSep 11 · 14:45D. Gasparovic45111211113M. Makara29614451
LAug 30 · 10:15D. Gasparovic481111101152M. Makara53913128113
WAug 23 · 14:45D. Gasparovic371116103M. Makara2321470
LJun 26 · 14:00D. Gasparovic42101151152M. Makara42126112113
WJun 19 · 16:33D. Gasparovic3912511113M. Makara311011371
LJun 19 · 15:30D. Gasparovic367127101M. Makara44111011123
WMay 31 · 11:00D. Gasparovic4791211153M. Makara4111107131
WMay 30 · 08:24D. Gasparovic4071111113M. Makara28115661
LMay 30 · 07:15D. Gasparovic4111108121M. Makara4251211143
WMay 17 · 12:00D. Gasparovic51981112113M. Makara45111161072
D. Gasparovic10
LSep 11 · 16:54L. Adam2.2071111123D. Gasparovic1.611188101WSep 11 · 15:15A. Snr2.758115131D. Gasparovic1.4011711153WSep 11 · 14:45D. Gasparovic1.44111211113M. Makara2.63614451LSep 11 · 13:45D. Gasparovic1.4011981152L. Adam2.75411113113LSep 6 · 17:00V. Burylov1.831111113D. Gasparovic1.838860WSep 6 · 15:15S. Rejent2.63511951D. Gasparovic1.4411611113LSep 6 · 14:45D. Gasparovic1.73136128112V. Burylov2.0011111011133WSep 6 · 13:45D. Gasparovic2.1081111113J. Chalupa1.67116791LSep 5 · 08:29J. Chalupa1.61121211133D. Gasparovic2.20101013111LSep 5 · 07:15M. Zelinka2.001171312123D. Gasparovic1.739111114102
M. Makara10
LSep 12 · 12:46M. Makara1.8312940L. Svoboda1.831411113WSep 12 · 11:45L. Svoboda1.50116561M. Makara2.5081111113WSep 12 · 10:45V. Burylov1.80111071182M. Makara1.91612119113WSep 12 · 09:15A. Snr1.6711611982M. Makara2.10611511113WSep 11 · 16:24M. Makara2.25111199113A. Snr1.5768111172WSep 11 · 15:45L. Adam1.67911912102M. Makara2.101171110123LSep 11 · 14:45D. Gasparovic1.44111211113M. Makara2.63614451LSep 11 · 13:15A. Snr1.671111113M. Makara2.105850WSep 8 · 12:29M. Makara1.91111185123R. Pisa1.80891111102LSep 8 · 11:30R. Pisa1.67111111123M. Makara2.107713101
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