TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13117252
Played Sep 12Finished
Lukas Svoboda
Home
1.50
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
118611511611––
Michal Makara
Away
2.50
At publish
Won last 4Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 4
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:42 and never touched — 64.1% is still 64.1%
Graded at full timeLukas Svoboda to win
64.1%
64.1%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingLukas Svoboda above · Michal Makara below
Set 1 · 11-8
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 5-11
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 69 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Lukas Svoboda at 64.1%
69 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Svoboda 7–2 Michal Makara Michal Makara has won 2 of their 9 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:42What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.50 (63%)
Svoboda
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
7-2 in 9
Svoboda
Wrong
gap of 5 in 9, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Svoboda 1665 vs Makara 1657
Svoboda
Wrong
both rated, 8 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Svoboda 40% vs Makara 80%
Makara
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Svoboda 40% vs Makara 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Svoboda +2 · Makara +4
Makara
Correct
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 64% — Clear lean (leans Svoboda)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Makara form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (40%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSvoboda 1.50 / Makara 2.50
Signal prob.64% / 36%
Edge (Svoboda)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13117252
Svoboda1.50
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As favourite61% won 23 of 38
Up 2–0, closes it91% 10 of 11
Up 1–0, closes it76% 16 of 21
Makara2.50
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 4
oldest → newest40%takes the first set · 4 of 10
As underdog46% won 173 of 377
Down 0–1, comes back24% 47 of 193
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 89
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 9 meetings
HomeSvoboda7wins
AwayMakara2wins
5 of 9 to a deciderSvoboda leads 7–2, and 5 of those 9 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSvoboda83.3%5 of 6
AwayMakara33.3%1 of 3
Set by set, in these 9 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Svoboda6Makara3n = 9Svoboda took 6 of 9
S2Svoboda6Makara3n = 9Svoboda took 6 of 9
S3Svoboda4Makara5n = 9Makara took 5 of 9
S4Svoboda3Makara3n = 6split evenly
S5Svoboda4Makara1n = 5Svoboda took 4 of 5
How those 9 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 9 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home222%
3–1Four sets, home111%
3–2Decider, home444%
2–3Decider, away111%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away111%
These 9 meetings
MetricSvobodaMakaraS − MBasisWins72+5in 9 meetingsFirst set63+3of 9Avg pointsper match42.437.0+5.4per matchSweeps21+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSvobodaMakaraBasisWin rate · lifetime74 / 165 vs 499 / 104144.9%47.9%74 / 165 vs 499 / 1041Avg sets wonper match1.92.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.239.3per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SvobodaSvoboda 1.50/Makara 2.50
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
64.1%
Svoboda · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Makara won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record9
WJul 6 · 14:45L. Svoboda—1111113M. Makara—9610
WJun 22 · 08:18L. Svoboda—512117113M. Makara—111061152
WJun 22 · 05:15L. Svoboda—681411113M. Makara—111112832
WJun 21 · 10:15L. Svoboda—1111113M. Makara—8590
LFeb 19 · 08:15L. Svoboda—9860M. Makara—1111113
WSep 1 · 06:45L. Svoboda—12111210113M. Makara—105141282
LAug 24 · 20:45L. Svoboda—116711102M. Makara—711116123
WAug 24 · 19:45L. Svoboda—121112113M. Makara—1041441
WJan 20 · 06:15L. Svoboda—111378113M. Makara—511111182
L. Svoboda10
WSep 12 · 10:15A. Snr1.838960L. Svoboda1.831111113WSep 12 · 09:45V. Burylov1.9110590L. Svoboda1.801211103LSep 11 · 08:13L. Dobias1.6111117133L. Svoboda2.207911111LSep 11 · 07:15M. Stibor1.801111114123L. Svoboda1.91813511102LSep 11 · 06:45L. Svoboda1.9161311562L. Adam1.801111811113WSep 11 · 05:45L. Svoboda2.25115129113L. Dobias1.57511101142WSep 10 · 16:44M. Zelinka1.4010690L. Svoboda2.751211113LSep 10 · 15:45L. Svoboda2.503990M. Zelinka1.501111113LSep 10 · 14:15S. Rejent1.91111285133L. Svoboda1.809101111112LSep 10 · 13:45J. Sr1.6714119113L. Svoboda2.101291151
M. Makara10
WSep 12 · 10:45V. Burylov1.80111071182M. Makara1.91612119113WSep 12 · 09:15A. Snr1.6711611982M. Makara2.10611511113WSep 11 · 16:24M. Makara2.25111199113A. Snr1.5768111172WSep 11 · 15:45L. Adam1.67911912102M. Makara2.101171110123LSep 11 · 14:45D. Gasparovic1.44111211113M. Makara2.63614451LSep 11 · 13:15A. Snr1.671111113M. Makara2.105850WSep 8 · 12:29M. Makara1.91111185123R. Pisa1.80891111102LSep 8 · 11:30R. Pisa1.67111111123M. Makara2.107713101LSep 8 · 11:00M. Makara1.91138991L. Veigl1.80111111113LSep 8 · 10:00M. Makara1.6761170T. Liska2.101113113
Upcoming Matches
L. Svoboda
Nothing scheduled
M. Makara
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