TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13116849
Played Sep 12Finished
Ales Brandtl Snr
Home
1.67
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
3–7Last 10Lost last 3
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
116611115911811
Michal Makara
Away
2.10
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:09 and never touched — 55.8% is still 55.8%
Graded at full timeAles Brandtl Snr to win
55.8%
55.8%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingAles Brandtl Snr above · Michal Makara below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 6-11
Set 3 · 11-5
Set 4 · 9-11
Set 5 · 8-11
Point 89 set 5, 8-11 — our read held Ales Brandtl Snr at 55.8%
89 points played in total.
H2H Ales Brandtl Snr 2–2 Michal Makara Dead even across their 4 meetings.
Last 4 · 2–2Head to head
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:09What took a side2 for · 2 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.67 (56%)
Snr
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
2-2 in 4
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Snr 1560 vs Makara 1635
Makara
Correct
both rated, 75 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Snr 20% vs Makara 60%
Makara
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Snr 30% vs Makara 40%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Snr -3 · Makara +2
Snr
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
2 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 56% — Slight lean (leans Snr)
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Makara form (60%) outperforms what odds imply (48%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsSnr 1.67 / Makara 2.10
Signal prob.56% / 44%
Edge (Snr)+0.0pp
Setka Cup · #13116849
Snr1.67
30%won 3 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As favourite33% won 7 of 21
Up 2–0, closes it71% 5 of 7
Up 1–0, closes it47% 7 of 15
Makara2.10
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As underdog46% won 173 of 377
Down 0–1, comes back24% 47 of 193
Down 0–2, comes back3% 3 of 89
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 4 meetings
HomeSnr2wins
AwayMakara2wins
2 of 4 to a deciderLevel at 2–2, and 2 of those 4 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeSnr66.7%2 of 3
AwayMakaran = 1, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 4 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Snr3Makara1n = 4Snr took 3 of 4
S2Snr2Makara2n = 4split evenly
S3Snr3Makara1n = 4Snr took 3 of 4
S4
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 4 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 4 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home250%
3–1Four sets, home00%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away250%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 4 meetings
MetricSnrMakaraS − MBasisWins220in 4 meetingsFirst set31+2of 4Avg pointsper match40.536.2+4.3per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricSnrMakaraBasisWin rate · lifetime11 / 35 vs 497 / 103931.4%47.8%11 / 35 vs 497 / 1039Avg sets wonper match1.82.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.139.2per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
SnrSnr 1.67/Makara 2.10
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
55.8%
Snr · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Makara won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record4
LSep 11 · 16:24A. Snr—68111172M. Makara—111199113
WSep 11 · 13:15A. Snr—1111113M. Makara—5850
WJun 9 · 20:18A. Snr—1111133M. Makara—49110
LJun 9 · 18:45A. Snr—111561182M. Makara—717116113
A. Snr10
LSep 12 · 10:15A. Snr1.838960L. Svoboda1.831111113LSep 11 · 16:24M. Makara2.25111199113A. Snr1.5768111172LSep 11 · 15:15A. Snr2.758115131D. Gasparovic1.4011711153LSep 11 · 14:15A. Snr2.108860L. Adam1.671111113WSep 11 · 13:15A. Snr1.671111113M. Makara2.105850LSep 4 · 20:23V. Burylov1.7311911113A. Snr2.00611891LSep 4 · 19:15A. Snr2.50751191D. Gasparovic1.5011117113LSep 4 · 18:15A. Snr1.8361151152J. Sr1.83117117113WSep 3 · 20:14R. Pisa2.008250A. Snr1.731111113WSep 3 · 19:15M. Vyskocil1.83691111102A. Snr1.83111188123
M. Makara10
WSep 11 · 16:24M. Makara2.25111199113A. Snr1.5768111172WSep 11 · 15:45L. Adam1.67911912102M. Makara2.101171110123LSep 11 · 14:45D. Gasparovic1.44111211113M. Makara2.63614451LSep 11 · 13:15A. Snr1.671111113M. Makara2.105850WSep 8 · 12:29M. Makara1.91111185123R. Pisa1.80891111102LSep 8 · 11:30R. Pisa1.67111111123M. Makara2.107713101LSep 8 · 11:00M. Makara1.91138991L. Veigl1.80111111113LSep 8 · 10:00M. Makara1.6761170T. Liska2.101113113LSep 7 · 16:48M. Makara1.83119111182M. Myler1.83711132113WSep 7 · 15:45S. Rejent1.6711911892M. Makara2.10911611113
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