TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13121921
Played Sep 13Finished
Josef Chalupa
Home
1.53
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
5–5Last 10Won last 2
Final
1 – 3
Set by set
1193111214611––
Lukas Svoboda
Away
2.38
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
6–4Last 10Won last 2
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:12 and never touched — 63.2% is still 63.2%
Graded at full timeJosef Chalupa to win
63.2%
63.2%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJosef Chalupa above · Lukas Svoboda below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 3-11
Set 3 · 12-14
Set 4 · 6-11
Point 77 set 4, 6-11 — our read held Josef Chalupa at 63.2%
77 points played in total.
H2H Josef Chalupa 23–9 Lukas Svoboda Lukas Svoboda has won 9 of their 32 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:12What took a side3 for · 1 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.53 (61%)
Chalupa
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
23-9 in 32
Chalupa
Wrong
gap of 14 in 32, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Chalupa 1776 vs Svoboda 1726
Chalupa
Wrong
both rated, 50 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Chalupa 60% vs Svoboda 80%
Svoboda
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Chalupa 50% vs Svoboda 60%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Chalupa +2 · Svoboda +2
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 2 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 62% — Clear lean (leans Chalupa) · live re-read · sealed at 63% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Svoboda form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (42%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsChalupa 1.53 / Svoboda 2.38
Signal prob.62% / 38%
Edge (Chalupa)+1.6pp
Setka Cup · #13121921
Chalupa1.53
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest90%takes the first set · 9 of 10
As favourite58% won 48 of 83
Up 2–0, closes it96% 24 of 25
Up 1–0, closes it73% 29 of 40
Svoboda2.38
60%won 6 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog39% won 16 of 41
Down 0–1, comes back23% 5 of 22
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 12
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 10 meetings
HomeChalupa7wins
AwaySvoboda3wins
3 of 10 to a deciderChalupa leads 7–3, and 3 of those 10 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeChalupa83.3%5 of 6
AwaySvoboda50%2 of 4
Set by set, in these 10 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Chalupa6Svoboda4n = 10Chalupa took 6 of 10
S2Chalupa7Svoboda3n = 10Chalupa took 7 of 10
S3Chalupa6Svoboda4n = 10Chalupa took 6 of 10
S4Chalupa6Svoboda2n = 8Chalupa took 6 of 8
S5Chalupa1Svoboda2n = 3Svoboda took 2 of 3
How those 10 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 10 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home220%
3–1Four sets, home440%
3–2Decider, home110%
2–3Decider, away220%
1–3Four sets, away110%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 10 meetings
MetricChalupaSvobodaC − SBasisWins73+4in 10 meetingsFirst set64+2of 10Avg pointsper match39.936.3+3.6per matchSweeps20+23–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricChalupaSvobodaBasisWin rate · lifetime206 / 371 vs 77 / 16955.5%45.6%206 / 371 vs 77 / 169Avg sets wonper match2.21.9per matchAvg pointsper match40.138.1per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
ChalupaChalupa 1.53/Svoboda 2.38
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
62.4%
Chalupa · sealed before the serve
What happened
1–3
Svoboda won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record10
LSep 13 · 06:45J. Chalupa321131261L. Svoboda4591114113
WAug 15 · 08:50J. Chalupa43101111113L. Svoboda35129771
WAug 15 · 05:15J. Chalupa4111711123L. Svoboda346117101
WJul 12 · 15:15J. Chalupa47111510113L. Svoboda342131271
LSep 3 · 05:30J. Chalupa47811116112L. Svoboda51117911133
WAug 26 · 14:15J. Chalupa46491111113L. Svoboda3711115642
WAug 26 · 08:45J. Chalupa4111118113L. Svoboda35971181
WAug 26 · 06:45J. Chalupa331111113L. Svoboda258980
WAug 25 · 09:10J. Chalupa331111113L. Svoboda174850
LAug 25 · 06:30J. Chalupa3631251152L. Svoboda501110117113
J. Chalupa10
WSep 13 · 07:15O. Kaderabek3.25511851J. Chalupa1.3311811113WSep 13 · 05:45J. Chalupa1.80611511113D. Gasparovic1.9111611882WSep 6 · 16:29J. Chalupa1.4411812113S. Rejent2.638111071LSep 6 · 15:45J. Chalupa1.80111011992V. Burylov1.91812911113WSep 6 · 14:15S. Rejent2.634130J. Chalupa1.441111113LSep 6 · 13:45D. Gasparovic2.1081111113J. Chalupa1.67116791WSep 5 · 08:29J. Chalupa1.61121211133D. Gasparovic2.20101013111LSep 5 · 07:45L. Veigl2.10311811113J. Chalupa1.6711911982WSep 5 · 06:45D. Gasparovic2.20911521J. Chalupa1.6111711113LSep 5 · 05:15M. Zelinka1.83611911113J. Chalupa1.8311811992
L. Svoboda10
WSep 13 · 05:15O. Kaderabek1.5051120L. Svoboda2.501113113WSep 12 · 12:46M. Makara1.8312940L. Svoboda1.831411113LSep 12 · 11:45L. Svoboda1.50116561M. Makara2.5081111113WSep 12 · 10:15A. Snr1.838960L. Svoboda1.831111113WSep 12 · 09:45V. Burylov1.9110590L. Svoboda1.801211103LSep 11 · 08:13L. Dobias1.6111117133L. Svoboda2.207911111LSep 11 · 07:15M. Stibor1.801111114123L. Svoboda1.91813511102LSep 11 · 06:45L. Svoboda1.9161311562L. Adam1.801111811113WSep 11 · 05:45L. Svoboda2.25115129113L. Dobias1.57511101142WSep 10 · 16:44M. Zelinka1.4010690L. Svoboda2.751211113
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