TT Lossbeater/Setka Cup
Setka CupMatch #13121923
Played Sep 13Finished
Denys Pesternikov
Home
1.36
At publish
Won last 2Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 2
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
116113119––––
Ruslan Lazebnyi
Away
3.00
At publish
Lost last 3Form at publish
5–5Last 10Lost last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 21:09 and never touched — 68.9% is still 68.9%
Graded at full timeDenys Pesternikov to win
68.9%
68.9%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingDenys Pesternikov above · Ruslan Lazebnyi below
Set 1 · 11-6
Set 2 · 11-3
Set 3 · 11-9
Point 51 set 3, 11-9 — our read held Denys Pesternikov at 68.9%
51 points played in total.
H2H Denys Pesternikov 6–0 Ruslan Lazebnyi Ruslan Lazebnyi has won 0 of their 6 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 21:09What took a side4 for · 1 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.36 (69%)
Pesternikov
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
6-0 in 6
Pesternikov
Correct
gap of 6 in 6, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Pesternikov 1937 vs Lazebnyi 1577
Pesternikov
Correct
both rated, 360 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Pesternikov 60% vs Lazebnyi 40%
Pesternikov
Correct
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Pesternikov 40% vs Lazebnyi 50%
—
Too close
10pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Pesternikov +2 · Lazebnyi -3
Lazebnyi
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 73% — Strong (leans Pesternikov) · live re-read · sealed at 69% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Pesternikov form (60%) is below what odds imply (73%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsPesternikov 1.36 / Lazebnyi 3.00
Signal prob.73% / 27%
Edge (Pesternikov)+4.4pp
Setka Cup · #13121923
Pesternikov1.36
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
Won last 2
oldest → newest70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As favourite69% won 214 of 311
Up 2–0, closes it95% 120 of 127
Up 1–0, closes it85% 172 of 202
Lazebnyi3.00
50%won 5 of 10 · last 10
Lost last 3
oldest → newest60%takes the first set · 6 of 10
As underdog41% won 17 of 42
Down 0–1, comes back20% 5 of 25
Down 0–2, comes back0% 0 of 14
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 6 meetings
HomePesternikov6wins
AwayLazebnyi0wins
2 of 6 to a deciderPesternikov leads 6–0, and 2 of those 6 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomePesternikov100%6 of 6
AwayLazebnyin = 0, below the 3 needed
Set by set, in these 6 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Pesternikov6Lazebnyi0n = 6Pesternikov took 6 of 6
S2Pesternikov4Lazebnyi2n = 6Pesternikov took 4 of 6
S3Pesternikov5Lazebnyi1n = 6Pesternikov took 5 of 6
S4Pesternikov1Lazebnyi2n = 3Lazebnyi took 2 of 3
S5
Only 2 matches reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 6 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 6 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home350%
3–1Four sets, home117%
3–2Decider, home233%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away00%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 6 meetings
MetricPesternikovLazebnyiP − LBasisWins60+6in 6 meetingsFirst set60+6of 6Avg pointsper match41.230.8+10.4per matchSweeps30+33–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricPesternikovLazebnyiBasisWin rate · lifetime588 / 1099 vs 60 / 12253.5%49.2%588 / 1099 vs 60 / 122Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match37.637.7per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
PesternikovPesternikov 1.36/Lazebnyi 3.00
Read onlywould have hit
What we said
73.2%
Pesternikov · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Pesternikov won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record6
WSep 13 · 23:30D. Pesternikov331111113R. Lazebnyi186390
WSep 7 · 12:25D. Pesternikov531116114113R. Lazebnyi5051881182
WSep 4 · 02:30D. Pesternikov541291111113R. Lazebnyi42101141342
WAug 22 · 09:35D. Pesternikov331111113R. Lazebnyi206950
WAug 21 · 13:05D. Pesternikov331111113R. Lazebnyi198470
WAug 20 · 20:30D. Pesternikov4111118113R. Lazebnyi36991171
D. Pesternikov10
WSep 13 · 22:30I. Kozachuk2.2012960D. Pesternikov1.611411113WSep 13 · 21:00D. Pesternikov1.281111113D. Shcherbak3.506780LSep 10 · 17:24B. Kohut1.6711117113D. Pesternikov2.10791191WSep 10 · 16:25D. Pesternikov2.251111113O. Bondarchuk1.576640LSep 10 · 15:25D. Pesternikov4.501117671A. Molochko1.1761911113LSep 10 · 13:55D. Pesternikov5.50116761N. Danyliuk1.1381111113LSep 10 · 12:55D. Pesternikov1.8098121172B. Kohut1.911111107113LSep 8 · 10:55D. Pesternikov1.337380N. Kovalchuk3.251111113LSep 8 · 08:55I. Romaniak2.75721211113D. Pesternikov1.40111110982WSep 8 · 07:55D. Pesternikov1.171111113O. Hura4.508440
R. Lazebnyi10
LSep 13 · 21:30S. Rak1.33111111113R. Lazebnyi3.25713461LSep 13 · 20:30I. Kozachuk1.611114123R. Lazebnyi2.20612100LSep 12 · 11:35N. Kovalchuk1.801615113R. Lazebnyi1.91141350WSep 12 · 10:05R. Lazebnyi1.8091111113R. Haiseniuk1.91117751WSep 12 · 08:05I. Romaniak1.836790R. Lazebnyi1.831111113WSep 12 · 06:05V. Plishylo2.20481191R. Lazebnyi1.6111116113LSep 12 · 05:05Y. Kravets1.91101111123R. Lazebnyi1.801272101WSep 11 · 18:05N. Kovalchuk1.618680R. Lazebnyi2.201111113WSep 11 · 17:05R. Lazebnyi1.8313115123Y. Kravets1.8311411101LSep 11 · 16:05R. Lazebnyi1.8315811652I. Romaniak1.831311311113
Upcoming Matches
D. Pesternikov
Sep 14 · 24:30D. Pesternikov1.50S. Rak2.50—Sep 14 · 02:30D. Pesternikov1.83O. Bindas1.83—Sep 14 · 13:05D. Pesternikov1.50S. Rak2.50—Sep 14 · 14:35D. Pesternikov1.80I. Kozachuk1.91—Sep 14 · 15:35D. Pesternikov1.44I. Romaniak2.63—Sep 14 · 16:35D. Pesternikov2.00O. Bindas1.73—Sep 14 · 18:35D. Pesternikov1.28D. Shcherbak3.50—
R. Lazebnyi
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