TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13120699
Played Sep 14Finished
Jakub Tazler
Home
2.00
At publish
Lost last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Lost last 1
Final
3 – 0
Set by set
1191210116––––
Richard Wagner
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 3Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 3
The read, and what happenedsealed at 14:59 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeRichard Wagner to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Wrongnot sent
How it is goingJakub Tazler above · Richard Wagner below
Set 1 · 11-9
Set 2 · 12-10
Set 3 · 11-6
Point 59 set 3, 11-6 — our read held Richard Wagner at 54.0%
59 points played in total.
H2H Jakub Tazler 5–3 Richard Wagner Richard Wagner has won 3 of their 8 meetings.
The pickNothing sent
Sealed 14:59What took a side3 for · 2 against · 1 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Wagner
Wrong
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
5-3 in 8
Tazler
Correct
gap of 2 in 8, over the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tazler 1736 vs Wagner 1700
Tazler
Correct
both rated, 36 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tazler 60% vs Wagner 80%
Wagner
Wrong
20pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tazler 70% vs Wagner 70%
—
Too close
0pp gap, under the 15pp bar
Streak
Tazler -1 · Wagner +3
Wagner
Wrong
one crossed 3 in a row, the other did not
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
3 for, 1 silent — and still no pick. The gate cuts it all the same.
Signal confidence: 55% — Coin-flip (leans Wagner) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Wagner form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTazler 2.00 / Wagner 1.73
Signal prob.45% / 55%
Edge (Wagner)+1.0pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13120699
Tazler2.00
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
70%takes the first set · 7 of 10
As underdog49% won 94 of 192
Down 0–1, comes back28% 29 of 102
Down 0–2, comes back18% 10 of 57
Wagner1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
Won last 3
oldest → newest50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite56% won 65 of 116
Up 2–0, closes it97% 31 of 32
Up 1–0, closes it78% 47 of 60
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeTazler5wins
AwayWagner3wins
1 of 8 to a deciderTazler leads 5–3, and 1 of those 8 went to a fifth set.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTazler100%4 of 4
AwayWagner75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tazler4Wagner4n = 8split evenly
S2Tazler4Wagner4n = 8split evenly
S3Tazler5Wagner3n = 8Tazler took 5 of 8
S4Tazler2Wagner2n = 4split evenly
S5
Only 1 match reached it — below the 3 needed to publish a rate
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home225%
3–1Four sets, home225%
3–2Decider, home113%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away113%
0–3Straight, away225%
These 8 meetings
MetricTazlerWagnerT − WBasisWins53+2in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match34.033.5+0.5per matchSweeps2203–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTazlerWagnerBasisWin rate · lifetime389 / 713 vs 105 / 19854.6%53%389 / 713 vs 105 / 198Avg sets wonper match2.12.0per matchAvg pointsper match38.436.8per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
WagnerTazler 2.00/Wagner 1.73
Read onlywould have missed
What we said
54.7%
Wagner · sealed before the serve
What happened
3–0
Tazler won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
WSep 14 · 01:30J. Tazler341112113R. Wagner2591060
WAug 25 · 12:00J. Tazler521110119113R. Wagner4561281182
LAug 25 · 08:30J. Tazler1734100R. Wagner341111123
WAug 12 · 16:30J. Tazler331111113R. Wagner239860
WAug 12 · 12:30J. Tazler4211119113R. Wagner29731181
LAug 9 · 20:59J. Tazler2989120R. Wagner361111143
LAug 9 · 18:00J. Tazler25541151R. Wagner3811115113
WJul 14 · 15:30J. Tazler4061211113R. Wagner381110981
J. Tazler10
LSep 14 · 24:30M. Klement1.611011126123J. Tazler2.201281011102WSep 13 · 23:30M. Vondrak1.5311680J. Tazler2.381311113WSep 13 · 22:30J. Tazler1.911111113M. Sychra1.805420LSep 13 · 21:29J. Tazler3.00101211992R. Pacha1.361210811113WSep 13 · 20:00J. Tazler1.911111113M. Sychra1.805990WSep 13 · 19:30L. Tonar2.0099111142J. Tazler1.73111176113WSep 13 · 18:00J. Tazler2.7511119123R. Pacha1.409911101LSep 10 · 03:29J. Tazler2.10811751M. Skakal1.6711611113WSep 10 · 01:30J. Tazler2.0061111113M. Sychra1.73112321WSep 10 · 24:30M. Regner1.508613101J. Tazler2.50111111123
R. Wagner10
LSep 14 · 02:30R. Wagner1.6111490M. Vondrak2.201311113WSep 14 · 24:00R. Wagner1.9111116113M. Sychra1.80971161WSep 13 · 23:00M. Klement2.38811981R. Wagner1.5311911113WSep 13 · 03:29R. Rose1.8331171182R. Wagner1.83119114113LSep 13 · 02:00R. Wagner1.404890M. Regner2.751111113WSep 13 · 01:00R. Wagner1.8311811113J. Louda1.83911441WSep 13 · 24:00S. Kasnik2.20114981R. Wagner1.6151111113WSep 12 · 22:30R. Rose1.6711981272R. Wagner2.106111110113LSep 9 · 13:30R. Wagner1.54811781F. Pusch2.1811611113LSep 9 · 12:00P. Saleny2.0012119113R. Wagner1.731051171
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