TT Lossbeater/Czech Liga Pro
Czech Liga ProMatch #13120200
Played Sep 13Finished
Lukas Tonar
Home
2.00
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
4–6Last 10Won last 1
Final
2 – 3
Set by set
911911117116411
Jakub Tazler
Away
1.73
At publish
Won last 1Form at publish
7–3Last 10Won last 1
The read, and what happenedsealed at 13:21 and never touched — 54.0% is still 54.0%
Graded at full timeJakub Tazler to win
54.0%
54.0%
Sealed before the first serve and never touched. The record is only checkable because of that.
Read
Rightnot sent
«Right» is not «we won». No pick was shipped, so this is a read that turned out correct — not a call that won.
How it is goingLukas Tonar above · Jakub Tazler below
Set 1 · 9-11
Set 2 · 9-11
Set 3 · 11-7
Set 4 · 11-6
Set 5 · 4-11
Point 90 set 5, 4-11 — our read held Jakub Tazler at 54.0%
90 points played in total.
H2H Lukas Tonar 4–4 Jakub Tazler Dead even across their 8 meetings.
Last 8 · 4–4Head to head
The pickConfirm
Sealed 13:21What took a side4 for · 0 against · 2 silent
SignalWhat it readSideVerdictWhy it voted that way
Market
1.73 (54%)
Tazler
Correct
no bar to clear — a priced side always votes
H2H
4-4 in 8
—
Too close
gap of 0, under the gap of 2
Rating (G2)
Tonar 1595 vs Tazler 1662
Tazler
Correct
both rated, 67 points apart — no bar to clear
Form (L5)
Tonar 40% vs Tazler 80%
Tazler
Correct
40pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Form (L10)
Tonar 40% vs Tazler 70%
Tazler
Correct
30pp gap, over the 15pp bar
Streak
Tonar +1 · Tazler +1
—
Too close
neither holds a run of 3 on their own
Not whether we were right, but which read failed. One match proves nothing — the calibration is the aggregate of rows like these, and that aggregate does not exist yet.
This table lists the interface catalogue — the one you already see in ALIGN / CONFLICT. The engine weighs its own subset, and they are not the same set. It says so here instead of hiding it.
4 for, 2 silent — and the gate let it through as Confirm.
Signal confidence: 57% — Slight lean (leans Tazler) · live re-read · sealed at 54% before the first serve
Decision Summary
Why this prediction
- Tazler form (80%) outperforms what odds imply (58%)
Market vs Signals
Market oddsTonar 2.00 / Tazler 1.73
Signal prob.44% / 57%
Edge (Tazler)+2.8pp
Czech Liga Pro · #13120200
Tonar2.00
40%won 4 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
30%takes the first set · 3 of 10
As underdog45% won 19 of 42
Down 0–1, comes back24% 5 of 21
Down 0–2, comes back13% 2 of 15
Tazler1.73
70%won 7 of 10 · last 10
oldest → newest
50%takes the first set · 5 of 10
As favourite61% won 83 of 136
Up 2–0, closes it92% 44 of 48
Up 1–0, closes it81% 66 of 82
Head to head
H2H window
The recordacross 8 meetings
HomeTonar4wins
AwayTazler4wins
Level at 4–4.
First set to match win · in this matchup
HomeTonar75%3 of 4
AwayTazler75%3 of 4
Set by set, in these 8 meetingsevery set carries its own n — a fifth set only exists when the match reaches one
S1Tonar4Tazler4n = 8split evenly
S2Tonar6Tazler2n = 8Tonar took 6 of 8
S3Tonar3Tazler5n = 8Tazler took 5 of 8
S4Tonar3Tazler4n = 7Tazler took 4 of 7
How those 8 finishedcounts, and the six add up to 8 — a scoreline is a name, not a code
3–0Straight, home113%
3–1Four sets, home338%
3–2Decider, home00%
2–3Decider, away00%
1–3Four sets, away450%
0–3Straight, away00%
These 8 meetings
MetricTonarTazlerTonar − TazlerBasisWins440in 8 meetingsFirst set440of 8Avg pointsper match36.835.9+0.9per matchSweeps10+13–0 or 0–3
Career, not this matchup
MetricTonarTazlerBasisWin rate · lifetime126 / 258 vs 384 / 70648.8%54.4%126 / 258 vs 384 / 706Avg sets wonper match1.92.1per matchAvg pointsper match36.138.4per match
Deep Dive by Market
Each market builds on the overview aboveForecast
History
Forecastthe model predicts this marketHistorythis is what the H2H did — no prediction
Match Winner
TazlerTonar 2.00/Tazler 1.73
Hit
What we said
56.5%
Tazler · sealed before the serve
What happened
2–3
Tazler won
Recent Results
H2H · no odds on record8
LJul 30 · 19:00L. Tonar29511581J. Tazler3711411113
WJul 28 · 21:30L. Tonar4391111123J. Tazler321156101
LJul 28 · 18:30L. Tonar29881121J. Tazler4111118113
LJul 28 · 17:00L. Tonar449111681J. Tazler4711718113
WJul 28 · 14:00L. Tonar3511112113J. Tazler30561181
LJun 20 · 19:00L. Tonar33118591J. Tazler4071111113
WMar 15 · 17:00L. Tonar331111113J. Tazler217950
WMar 2 · 17:00L. Tonar48151111113J. Tazler391351381
L. Tonar10
WSep 13 · 18:30M. Sychra1.831144101L. Tonar1.8371111123LAug 22 · 20:58L. Tonar1.83911111072D. Sidletskyi1.83119412113WAug 22 · 20:30D. Sidletskyi1.6710960L. Tonar2.101211113LAug 22 · 19:30L. Tonar1.7351040D. Hofman2.001112113LAug 22 · 18:30R. Wagner1.441111113L. Tonar2.632680LJul 30 · 21:00L. Tonar1.61981121K. Kapras2.2011115113WJul 30 · 20:30L. Tonar1.57111139113K. Kapras2.2575111192LJul 30 · 19:00L. Tonar1.67511581J. Tazler2.1011411113LJul 30 · 18:00V. Vejvoda1.61491111113L. Tonar2.2011117992WJul 28 · 21:30L. Tonar1.3891111123J. Tazler2.801156101
J. Tazler10
WSep 13 · 20:00J. Tazler1.911111113M. Sychra1.805990WSep 13 · 18:00J. Tazler2.7511119123R. Pacha1.409911101LSep 10 · 03:29J. Tazler2.10811751M. Skakal1.6711611113WSep 10 · 01:30J. Tazler2.0061111113M. Sychra1.73112321WSep 10 · 24:30M. Regner1.508613101J. Tazler2.50111111123WSep 9 · 23:30M. Pikous1.779990J. Tazler1.931111113LSep 9 · 22:30J. Tazler2.2010812101M. Skakal1.61121110123WSep 9 · 21:30M. Skakal1.72411110J. Tazler2.001113133WJul 30 · 19:00L. Tonar1.67511581J. Tazler2.1011411113LJul 28 · 21:30L. Tonar1.3891111123J. Tazler2.801156101
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